SIRI Intraday Thread: Friday April 17th/Weekend Edition

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Originally Posted by RickF

Cos, Newman, John, Imron - all of you guys are great - a while back I posted that "sometime in the future" I would elaborate on my circumstances - it was all about "Moms" money that was losing me sleep here. You guys have been fabulous and I will be taking heed of your recommendations. I think that I can stomach letting it ride until it hits .68 (i seems to recall that one of you guys suggested that that would be the next wlll that we hit - from a technical viewpoint) - then I think I will sell the original investment and move it to a less volitile stock - then - I figure it is money that I can lose (OR WIN) and not lose sleep!! Thanks bunches for the stock suggestions John!

When I sell / buy - I will let you guys know - I know that I am small potatoes but again - thanks guys!!

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Rick,

From another newbie, myself, I can sense your struggles and commend
you on your thoughtful investing of your moms gift to you. I am sure
she is very proud of you, just in the way that you care so deeply.
Thank you for sharing your story.
Best wishes and you will do great I'm sure! :)
Julie

adding to my list of not selling 'tills...

5. Economy turns around (i think its happened but ill wait until its announced, and then wait at least another quarter after that announcement)
6. Auto industry posts better numbers (which is coming because Im buying 2 new cars monday lol)

Everyday I read and reevaluate my plan, but I can honestly say I see no smart selling until 2009Q4 results are released in February 2010....at that point we'll be above or move above $2 IMO and ill think about it again on how good the future looks.

support the cause and sign up...http://www.youtube.com/user/sirius

(only the recent moves give me the feeling we could hit above $1 by end of year)

Thanks Bunches Julie!!

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Originally Posted by Newman

RickF, this is my problem with the system you described: How many times have you seen the stock price make sudden, unforeseen, and DRASTIC cuts, either up or down, only to settle down back where itw as when it started the day? These MMs can see where the orders for buy and sell are. They may spike the stock price down by 10 cents, trigger your sell, and then bring the stock back up in a matter of minutes or even seconds. You are then out all of your shares, for absolutely no good reason.

As far as I am concerned, and Relmor, Cos, and several others are doing this as well:
Decide how much of your position will be the "Core" position. This core position is your long term holdings. You will reevaluate your decision at least 2 times a year, determine if the company is still performing like you think it should, and determine if you want to sell or not.

The rest of your current position is what you consider your "trading" stock. This is the stock that means little to you. It is meant for short term trading. Sell on what you believe are the highs, and buy back on what you believe are the lows. I myself sold out a portion of my trading shares at 47 on Friday. I expect the stock to retrace down to at least 42-45ish. It may not happen Monday, it may not happen Tuesday, but I believe it will happen this week, and I will buy back then. If you have a decent number of shares, these 2-5 cent gains can be significant. A 5 cent gain on 10k shares is $500, or about 1000 more shares of Sirius. (an increase of 10% of your trading shares). Not too shabby. You don't necessarily have to buy more shares either. You could simply pocket the difference. No body will ever shame you for putting cash in your pocket.

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04-16-2009, 03:45 PM #125
MLSiri
Member
Thanks for the chart and the explanations, Relmor! If you look really closely at your chart you can see the outline of a raging bull whose horn is taking dead aim at .42/.43 and beyond.

I'm taking your advise (and the other esteemed members of SA/SB/SW) to sell a portion of my core (10-20%) at around .51 and then rebuying on the predictable retraction to accumulate more shares for the upward push. As you say: wash, rinse, repeat!

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Just an update from my plan for last Friday (described above): I ended up selling 12% of my shares (55% of non-core) at $.4977. Missed my target on the first pop to almost .50, and when it started rising again I dropped my .51 target to between .49 and .50 (at ETrade I can only buy and sell in two decimals). So, I made a 43.4% profit rather than 47% based on the lot I sold. I now have a good-for-60-days order at .43, which will get me about 900 more shares than I had as of last Thursday. Like Newman said, even if the retracement doesn't get down to this level I still have some dry powder to rebuy this or any other stock, or even pocket the profits, while still maintaining my core long SIRI position; which I will never day-trade, but hope to increase with the magic of compound investing (i.e., add to my core a percentage of any additional shares).

As oft mentioned, this strategy is not for everyone and is fraught with risk. But I'm a conservative gambler and willing to assume whatever the results of this trading behavior.

Happy trading and investing everyone, and may Sirius profits follow you everywhere.

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Originally Posted by RickF

Thanks Bunches Julie!!

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Dear Rick,

Your welcome. And I hope you are sleeping easier. I am
sure your mom would have never wanted her gift to you to cause
you any anguish. You'll do fine! :)
Take care,
Julie

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Originally Posted by imromo24

adding to my list of not selling 'tills...

5. Economy turns around (i think its happened but ill wait until its announced, and then wait at least another quarter after that announcement)
6. Auto industry posts better numbers (which is coming because Im buying 2 new cars monday lol)

Everyday I read and reevaluate my plan, but I can honestly say I see no smart selling until 2009Q4 results are released in February 2010....at that point we'll be above or move above $2 IMO and ill think about it again on how good the future looks.

support the cause and sign up...http://www.youtube.com/user/sirius

(only the recent moves give me the feeling we could hit above $1 by end of year)

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Imromo- I like your plan and alittle patience can go along way, but doesn't "our buddy" Mel have the right to R/S before next year? (I know he does, just looking for your response...) I guess my underlying question to you is, "Will he?"

I would like to add a comment concerning the auto companies numbers.
Working at a bank, I have several dealerships that make deposits. In the last
month and a half I have noticed their deposits have gone up dramatically.
Not only myself, but coworkers as well have commented. There seems to be
a real turnaround, IMO. Possibly the lower financing, incentives and
springtime have all played a role in the increase. Several customers, a few
coworkers and friends have purchased new vehicles within the last few
weeks. And better yet, the ones I asked, all had Sirius. :D Just an
observation.

Julie

good info julie, great info actually. if thats happening in michigan its gotta be happening everywhere else and even more so.

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Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos

good info julie, great info actually. if thats happening in michigan its gotta be happening everywhere else and even more so.

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Thanks Tripp. I just heard on the news Michigan has 13% unemployment!!
So many houses for sale, lots of foreclosures. Friends of mine, I went to
their wedding a year ago, purchased a beautiful home. They didn't even
make their first mortgage payment and he lost his job. :( Now they
may lose it, he's been unable to find anything.
But, on a brighter note, there is small signs things are picking up.
Like I said earlier, I am very observant, and can see people are spending
more as well as contractors are picking up jobs etc. Dealing with money
as I do, I get a real sense of what's going on with my customers.
Plus you can imagine how many questions I ask. LOL :p
Julie

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Originally Posted by edeyoung99

Imromo- I like your plan and alittle patience can go along way, but doesn't "our buddy" Mel have the right to R/S before next year? (I know he does, just looking for your response...) I guess my underlying question to you is, "Will he?"

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http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...ance-qvc-debt/


"According to Arenson, the company indicated no plans for a reverse split to SIRI shares."

:D:D:D

Think Siri long but not "too" long. I figure if Stern retires, he makes the announcement 6 to 8 months in advance. That would be 6 to 8 months from now. Once Stern goes, so do subscriptions by the millions. Just something to keep in mind in the long term view.

I disagree. Also stern won't leave completely! IMO

How about this jon, think of your favorite tv show. Now it is being canceled, would you drop your premium cable provider to go back to rabbit ears?

to many up days too fast. i am expecting some profit taking in the morning and a recovery to .50... .50 is a pyscological price point. we will be lucky on Monday if the price closes at .50. if it does then we can expect some more consolidation before a move high. on the way down .50 to .60 had little staying power. we need some upgrades too move higher.

good luck

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Originally Posted by Hopeful

I disagree. Also stern won't leave completely! IMO

How about this jon, think of your favorite tv show. Now it is being canceled, would you drop your premium cable provider to go back to rabbit ears?

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LOL. My opinion, Stern won't leave, why would he? By the time
his contract is up Sirius will be bigger than ever, why would he leave
the only game in town. Not too long ago he discussed celebrities that
left hit shows and went into obscurity. Same with Stern, his ego is too
big, where would he go? And like Hopeful said, initially people may have
followed Stern to Sirius but once they got there most realize Sirius
is a lot more than just him. I would imagine he realizes that too.
Julie

Julie, 13 % is terrible and if you consider the goverment is always lying about these numbers, it's probably even higher. But I really believe we are going to see a turnaround, real estate here in NM or Westteaxas is still doing good, but there is no credit. I did sell two homes last month with owner financing, both buyers with great jobs and income, but couldn't even get into the banks door. What is your experience ? I strongly believe with credit this crisis is over.

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Originally Posted by julietoo

Thanks Tripp. I just heard on the news Michigan has 13% unemployment!!
So many houses for sale, lots of foreclosures. Friends of mine, I went to
their wedding a year ago, purchased a beautiful home. They didn't even
make their first mortgage payment and he lost his job. :( Now they
may lose it, he's been unable to find anything.
But, on a brighter note, there is small signs things are picking up.
Like I said earlier, I am very observant, and can see people are spending
more as well as contractors are picking up jobs etc. Dealing with money
as I do, I get a real sense of what's going on with my customers.
Plus you can imagine how many questions I ask. LOL :p
Julie

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Originally Posted by Daniel

Julie, 13 % is terrible and if you consider the goverment is always lying about these numbers, it's probably even higher. But I really believe we are going to see a turnaround, real estate here in NM or Westteaxas is still doing good, but there is no credit. I did sell two homes last month with owner financing, both buyers with great jobs and income, but couldn't even get into the banks door. What is your experience ? I strongly believe with credit this crisis is over.

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Hi Daniel,

You are probably right about the numbers being even higher than 13%.
It really seems as though everyone I know has been affected by unemployment one way or another. Either they, themselves are unemployed
or a family member is. Certain areas, it almost seems like every other
home is for sale. A neighbor listed her home last year for aprox $260,000,
she has reduced it to $130,000, half of what it was!
One of my customers, a real estate broker, told me last week, mortgage
companies were changing the rules daily about financing. She said this
was causing difficulties with her clients, they were getting upset with her.
The people who seem to be benefiting from this, as you know, are the
first time home buyers, with the incentives and credits.
Financing for auto loans must be getting easier as I mentioned earlier,
by the size of the dealerships deposits.
This recovery needs to move faster. :)

RickF

In the grand scheme of things, we are all small potatoes. Most here started where you are and got sucked in deeper than we would have liked to be. Had to avg down to ever see a return on investment.

Many of us are starting to see light at the end of the tunnel.

Good strategy. Sell when you can recoup your initial investment and let the rest ride...Play with house money!

Julietoo

Great observation on the new car sales in that great state of yours!!!!

BTW- when you make enough on your sirius investment to retire from the banking business...You would make a great Home Health Social Worker!!!
You are right, you must be a great listener. Many of my patients just need someone to talk to...someone to interact with face to face. Many times, I will be the only person that they see the whole week. Pretty depressing! However, after getting to know them, some of their stories are fascinating!
I have found using humor and getting them to laugh, can be great for their mental state. Many of them really have nothing to laugh about, but I'm just goofy enough to get them to let their guard down and laugh alittle!!

Have a great trading week!!