SIRI Intraday Thread: Thursday April 9th

First, Brandon / CRFCEO, ..... your discussion with Charles really needs to go private. Its just not appropriate to be continuing it here.... hope you understand and can work things out...

Relmor, Otone, Inromo24,

good comments and it appears to me that we have two scenarios. One being the present and what is real that consumers can use and enjoy today, while relying on the fact that it will not go by the way of the dinosaur in 6 months. The second is how does Sirius Xm position itself in the future, in a Darwinian way, not to be one of the companies that go extinct.

As far as the present, Relmor and Inromo24 make the point that most discussion by would be SAT Rad killing events are simply not viable today to compete... The 15 or more years that Sirius and Xm have taken to become what they are today with their Birds in the Sky, and their radios in the dashboard of an ever growing percentage of autos manufactured today, and at least for the next 3 years, is a huge Competitive Advantage today... Their listening platform in the car, nationwide, is unsurpassed by any competitor. This secures their present and immediate future's financial success for now -2012.

I think the Internet is available to all who deliver content in the media business through current broadband connections and now cellphone 3g streaming networks. The problem on the go now and in the future is how do you make it reliable wherever you go? How do you make the handheld radio, personal data assistant, texting, and phone devices that we now use, become what we want to use when we listen to Content. All content; talk, sports, music, concerts, news, cultural programming.... traffic, weather, navigation, all in one place. What media company will provide that to us (consumers) at a reasonable cost, conveniently. The future is not going to just be about can you do it, it is going to be about how easy and cheaply can you get me what I want, when I want it..... everywhere. Otone and others have been having a discussion about endearing the consumer, of all age groups, to this product now so that the future beyond 3 years is also secure for this company... The discussion of cobranding products with music talent and live concert sponsorship and feeds are all great ideas to do that. I also don't believe that their will be a better place to get that content in the coming years than Sirius Xm Radio... The only real hurdle they have to jump is a hardware / phone provider one. If the Stilletto 2 could make a phone call, they would be their IMHO... Make it better and connect to the wireless streaming network so we can make a call on it too..... How many jumps do the competition have to make to truely take on Sirius Xm in your car????

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Originally Posted by Newman

I have said it once and I will say it again: Internet connectivity in the vehicle will ONLY HELP sirius. Granted, they will have more competition for listening time, but Sirius will still have what the others dont: (more or less) exclusive content and commercial free programming. Think about it: How are all of these internet radio stations supposed to survive? There are already laws and regulations in place that will not allow video to play visable to a driver while the vehicle is in motion. That is why you cannot program navigation units while the car is going over 3 miles per hour, and front-seat TV systems turn off when the car is put in gear. This makes it necessary to place all advertisements into audio form, meaning they will be no better than terrestrial radio.

I will add a caveat to the above statement: Internet connectivity will ONLY HELP sirius IF IT UTILIZES IT. If Sirius doesn't start changing with the times, they are going to get left in the dust.

Sirius can use the internet capabilities one their own to help improve their own product. With WiFi capabilities, Sirius XM may no longer need to maintain a terrestrial repeater network. The FCC has already stated that Sirius cannot broadcast local advertisements using a repeater network, but did it restrict using WiFi and the internet to provide local advertising? In areas where WiFi is available, is it possible that Sirius could adapt a Slacker-type approach and allow people to program their "own" stations? Each of these are potential revenue and consumer generators that Sirius does not currently have access to, but could become reality with WiFi capabilities in vehicles.

WiFi will definately add competition for Sirius XM, but it also adds possibilities.

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Newman I think your a little short sighted on the Wifi aspect. Satellites are one-way communicators to most consumers most only broadcast to consumers and receive from their feed. Every Siri radio currently can only receive a signal. It cant respond and send any information to the company. This is why when Hughes net first started satellite internet you had to logon with a dialup connection. The dialup would then communicate what site etc. you wanted to go to and then the Sat would send the info back down to you. This is all academic and I'm sure you know this. This was for others that don't

Wifi would allow people to respond to virtually anything! Perhaps a song press a button and Wifi tells Siri that you want it on your playlist or purchase it. Any commercial press a button Siri emails you more information regarding product. Proflowers.com commercial 30 percent off! push a button select a contact/Mom, flowers on the way billed to your CC automatically. On and on the possibilities are endless.

Wifi will hopefully help Siri if they embrace it properly.

I have previously worked in the satellite industry for many years. I personally have never seen such an opportunity as this. Consumers receive top quality connection by Sat. Who gives a damn if it takes 5-30 minutes for the info that you send back over Wifi over a spotty crappy connection? It does not affect your "receiving" end at all. BRILLIANT!

RESPOND TO ME SIRIUSBUZZ COMMUNITY!!

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Originally Posted by imromo24

You may feel like this is just an opinion...but it's the truth...

this is going to be hard to explain clearly-->its difficult to see the present as something that was once the future...today was WAY in the future in 1990 when satellite radio was invented....now is their time to shine...siri will take off this year and it will be huge....everything else is FUTURE (10 plus years).

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I think we are trying to say the same thing in terms of their network development, in dash monopoly, and ready to role... while the competition is saying what it is hoping bring forth with WiFi in the next several years.... and we posted it at about the same time.....

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Originally Posted by Demian

If there is no SiriusBuzz radio show tonight, I blame Brandon and Charles.....oh, and Tyler too.

It's only an hour for crying out loud....

I would be willing to help out and do it on the thursdays that you guys can't....let me know.

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Demian, I am positive that the majority of listeners would rather have myself and Paratrooper Rick take over the reigns. I can make fart sounds on command PR could crack a few jokes and we would have Brandon filling content for 99.9 percent of the time.

Make sure the body is dead before you move it. That doesn't mean kick it to make sure. In the infamous words of Cos "NOT FUNNY NOT LOL"

Nice that Brandon let you be a virtual co-host last time and you find the soft spot to stick the knife in.

One word "Vulture" Thats more polite then Biaaatch

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Originally Posted by Joeboo1

Newman I think your a little short sighted on the Wifi aspect. Satellites are one-way communicators to most consumers most only broadcast to consumers and receive from their feed. Every Siri radio currently can only receive a signal. It cant respond and send any information to the company. This is why when Hughes net first started satellite internet you had to logon with a dialup connection. The dialup would then communicate what site etc. you wanted to go to and then the Sat would send the info back down to you. This is all academic and I'm sure you know this. This was for others that don't

Wifi would allow people to respond to virtually anything! Perhaps a song press a button and Wifi tells Siri that you want it on your playlist or purchase it. Any commercial press a button Siri emails you more information regarding product. Proflowers.com commercial 30 percent off! push a button select a contact/Mom, flowers on the way billed to your CC automatically. On and on the possibilities are endless.

Wifi will hopefully help Siri if they embrace it properly.

I have previously worked in the satellite industry for many years. I personally have never seen such an opportunity as this. Consumers receive top quality connection by Sat. Who gives a damn if it takes 5-30 minutes for the info that you send back over Wifi over a spotty crappy connection? It does not affect your "receiving" end at all. BRILLIANT!

RESPOND TO ME SIRIUSBUZZ COMMUNITY!!

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So are you suggesting that when SXM launches its two new satellites, say June 09, and January 2010, and is able to transmit to all existing radios using these new transponders, that the newer radios with "Slacker" like features may be more intuitive for the consumer to program say artists to record music or say download to a predetermined e-mail device the song or album at a fee. The consumer up link communication doesn't really have to be that complex, not like "texting"... Seems like so many possibilities with so few answers yet from the company......

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Originally Posted by cos1000

I think we are trying to say the same thing in terms of their network development, in dash monopoly, and ready to role... while the competition is saying what it is hoping bring forth with WiFi in the next several years.... and we posted it at about the same time.....

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Great comments fellas. 4:30 here in HI and getting out of here soon. I'm sure this thread will be locked soon, so I'd like to pursue it further in tomorrows thread.

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Originally Posted by Joeboo1

Demian, I am positive that the majority of listeners would rather have myself and Paratrooper Rick take over the reigns. I can make fart sounds on command PR could crack a few jokes and we would have Brandon filling content for 99.9 percent of the time.

Make sure the body is dead before you move it. That doesn't mean kick it to make sure. In the infamous words of Cos "NOT FUNNY NOT LOL"

Nice that Brandon let you be a virtual co-host last time and you find the soft spot to stick the knife in.

One word "Vulture" Thats more polite then Biaaatch

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So would that be "NFNLOL" if I were Texting.... ??? :D

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Originally Posted by cos1000

So are you suggesting that when SXM launches its two new satellites, say June 09, and January 2010, and is able to transmit to all existing radios using these new transponders, that the newer radios with "Slacker" like features may be more intuitive for the consumer to program say artists to record music or say download to a predetermined e-mail device the song or album at a fee. The consumer up link communication doesn't really have to be that complex, not like "texting"... Seems like so many possibilities with so few answers yet from the company......

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Maybe with the Liberty resources/opportunities possibly available they really dont know which path to take yet. The worse decision for them to make now is taking too long to decide.

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Originally Posted by otone

Newman, I don't see how Internet connectivity will "ONLY HELP" Sirius. I can see how it would hurt Sirius as well. I see Subscribers who really only care about sports, dropping Sirius once all the different sports come out with their own Internet Apps. If Internet in the car and 3g coverage becomes fairly common, I won't don't see how Sirius XM will be able to justify carrying sports.

I also liked the article in the News section. I'm keen to see how they start promoting SiriusXM in the coming months. They really need to start having a prominent presence in the concert scene along with broadcasting live concerts.

Personally.. I'm worried that more providers of unique content will go the internet route as this method of transmission becomes ubiquitous. Eventually, some smart person will figure out how to set up a "store front" and, in coordination with the various content providers, create various packages that will make it extremely easy for people to purchase the different content (Sports, live concerts, whatever).

Where is that going to leave Sirius?

Before you or anyone else beats me up on that, I'm holding over 130k shares that I have averaged down to .80 since the SP was over 3 bucks. I'm a true long (and some may say truly stupid). Having said that, I'd appreciate hearing your or anyone else's opinion on how they think the emerging internet presence of sports (for now.. other content later) will affect Sirius subscriber numbers. I'm guessing we get to .80 which makes me whole, but doesn't seem to be enough for the stress this thing has put me through. I'd love for my bet to pay off and in a big way, but I have to say that I'm worried in the long term (2 years out?).

So how bout it? Come up with some concrete examplese of how Sirius can thrive in this market place?

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Otone, great post. Let me see if I can address some of your concerns:
Yes, Baseball has gone iPod willy... (ok, iPhone willy). For the cost of $10 per season, you can listen to every game on your iphone. That is great. What about football? What about hockey? What about college sports? If you pay $10 for each of these, you are quickly coming to a position where you are no longer saving money. If baseball is all you care about, then you save a bundle. If you want music and all of the other sports to go along with it, Sirius XM is it.

You say that someone will start up a storefront to sell all of these things... What if Sirius WAS that storefront? I think they already are. All of these people that start heading to the internet... If they are popular enough, Sirius will try to get them to add their stream to Sirius as well.

As my final point: WiFi is not everywhere, and it will take a LONG time to get everywhere. Even then, it will be like cable: You cant get everywhere cost effectively. Those remote areas will be covered ONLY by satellite. Sirius (if they are smart) will utilize the internet and WiFi capabilities the their fullest potential, but when internet just doesnt cut it anymore or the signal is not there, they will still have their satellites beaming down. The same cannot be said for the internet.

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Originally Posted by cos1000

I think we are trying to say the same thing in terms of their network development, in dash monopoly, and ready to role... while the competition is saying what it is hoping bring forth with WiFi in the next several years.... and we posted it at about the same time.....

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Cos understand perfectly what you are saying,3 yrs down the road is when sirius will have to have a plan now to expand and change with consumer's needs and wants.Not a tech guy so leave that to others to converse about.
But am an investor,so all i care about is making money and to me i'll have made my money on the 3 years where the odds are tremendously in their favor,then gone..I think you are looking at it more as a customer and fan of SATRAD than an investor.JMHO..I'll still be a cutomer,love the product,but things could change drastically by then...EX:Microsoft was a monopoly from 1985-2001.stock price soared then look at it today....Cable same thing..
Their will be competition some day,but not now..

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Originally Posted by cos1000

good comments and it appears to me that we have two scenarios. One being the present and what is real that consumers can use and enjoy today, while relying on the fact that it will not go by the way of the dinosaur in 6 months. The second is how does Sirius Xm position itself in the future, in a Darwinian way, not to be one of the companies that go extinct.

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This is the big debate for us longs...how long should I hold...to $7 a share, $40 share...Can Sirius XM react quickly enough to position itself as the DADDY (if you will) of the new technologies....I see sirius xm buying the competition...or mocking the competition to oblivion....I think they are too big and becoming too powerful to not buy startups out...they will be the top of the mobile media pyramid (if they are on the ball)

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

Cos understand perfectly what you are saying,3 yrs down the road is when sirius will have to have a plan now to expand and change with consumer's needs and wants.Not a tech guy so leave that to others to converse about.
But am an investor,so all i care about is making money and to me i'll have made my money on the 3 years where the odds are tremendously in their favor,then gone..I think you are looking at it more as a customer and fan of SATRAD than an investor.JMHO..I'll still be a cutomer,love the product,but things could change drastically by then...EX:Microsoft was a monopoly from 1985-2001.stock price soared then look at it today....Cable same thing..
Their will be competition some day,but not now..

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Yes, yes, and yes (maybe another yes also, but yes)

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Originally Posted by imromo24

Relmor....doesn't it almost get annoying how obvious this all is?

Everything about Sirius is real 19 million subscribers. Satellites in the sky...penetration in the auto industry...

and they say sirius is speculative...lol...if sirius xm has all of the above going for it and is speculative...then what is everything else?

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I did some consulting for a company called Phonefree.com a long time ago. All they had were a few offices and a little room stuffed with servers. They were talking going public. I thought to myself "what the hell, they have maybe 200k worth of crap here and they wanna go public? They saw the value in their product. I had seen 200k worth of IT then I saw the dotcom burst. Contract over........

I felt it was like the Wizard of Oz. BTW how long are confidentiality agreements good for? They had national commercials, people burning their phone bills on TV all that! I felt like Toto!

Their is substance and value in Siri.

I was updating my quicken stock price manually and put in $ 35 instead of .35 and I had a portfolio of 3.1 million - LOL

Talk about a dream.

I really just want 1.50 & I'd be ecstatic.

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Originally Posted by Newman

You say that someone will start up a storefront to sell all of these things... What if Sirius WAS that storefront? I think they already are. All of these people that start heading to the internet... If they are popular enough, Sirius will try to get them to add their stream to Sirius as well.

As my final point: WiFi is not everywhere, and it will take a LONG time to get everywhere. Even then, it will be like cable: You cant get everywhere cost effectively. Those remote areas will be covered ONLY by satellite. Sirius (if they are smart) will utilize the internet and WiFi capabilities the their fullest potential, but when internet just doesnt cut it anymore or the signal is not there, they will still have their satellites beaming down. The same cannot be said for the internet.

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yes and yes...cross your fingers that Mel knows this and is headed in this direction. His latest comments are exactly what we want.... to paraphrase "now we can concentrate on building this company"

"NOW" we can concentrate on building this company

"NOW" we can concentrate on building this company

"NOW" we can concentrate on building this company

I say saaaweeeet! you go mel (he is not stupid by anymeans)

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Originally Posted by Joeboo1

Newman I think your a little short sighted on the Wifi aspect. Satellites are one-way communicators to most consumers most only broadcast to consumers and receive from their feed. Every Siri radio currently can only receive a signal. It cant respond and send any information to the company. This is why when Hughes net first started satellite internet you had to logon with a dialup connection. The dialup would then communicate what site etc. you wanted to go to and then the Sat would send the info back down to you. This is all academic and I'm sure you know this. This was for others that don't

Wifi would allow people to respond to virtually anything! Perhaps a song press a button and Wifi tells Siri that you want it on your playlist or purchase it. Any commercial press a button Siri emails you more information regarding product. Proflowers.com commercial 30 percent off! push a button select a contact/Mom, flowers on the way billed to your CC automatically. On and on the possibilities are endless.

Wifi will hopefully help Siri if they embrace it properly.

I have previously worked in the satellite industry for many years. I personally have never seen such an opportunity as this. Consumers receive top quality connection by Sat. Who gives a damn if it takes 5-30 minutes for the info that you send back over Wifi over a spotty crappy connection? It does not affect your "receiving" end at all. BRILLIANT!

RESPOND TO ME SIRIUSBUZZ COMMUNITY!!

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You see, you are not properly reading my posts. What makes you think that future Sirius radios will not be wifi? In fact, Brandon mentioned that when he went to NY and toured the Sirius building, he was told that ALL future radios would be WiFi. Perhaps that was meant as all PORTABLE radios, or perhaps just as it was said: ALL radios.

The problem that you (and many many many others) fail to realize is the fact that all of these ideas you and everyone else mention could be placed into a satellite radio just as easy as it could be put into a new phone or OEM install or what ever. Remember when I added that caveat that Sirius needed to change with the times? This is what I was talking about. If they added WiFi capabilities to every single radio that got produced and added the right functionality, SatRad would be everything you just mentioned and more as long as WiFi was available.
What if WiFi is not available? Well, then you still have the satellites beaming down your music, comedy, talk, etc, etc, etc. You could STILL have all of the same options even when WiFi wasnt available, but instead it would store the command and send it as soon as a signal was available.

You talk about Satellite Radio like it is in a vacuum. Technology can change but Sirius cant? That, my friend, is shortsighted...

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Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM

Cos understand perfectly what you are saying,3 yrs down the road is when sirius will have to have a plan now to expand and change with consumer's needs and wants.Not a tech guy so leave that to others to converse about.
But am an investor,so all i care about is making money and to me i'll have made my money on the 3 years where the odds are tremendously in their favor,then gone..I think you are looking at it more as a customer and fan of SATRAD than an investor.JMHO..I'll still be a cutomer,love the product,but things could change drastically by then...EX:Microsoft was a monopoly from 1985-2001.stock price soared then look at it today....Cable same thing..
Their will be competition some day,but not now..

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Well it is true that I look at it as a fan and a customer but, I am an investor who has been in for a while and got trapped by the merger fiasco.... I guess I was trying to say that as an investor there really isn't much to worry about over the next three years. In reality for me I will probably be out of this stock before any R/S, depending on momentum at the time... I'm just looking for double up and out from here on... My total in now is about 90K shares a total CPS of 1.27. My goal is to get my CPS to under a buck and I still feel that possible over the next couple of months. I just need a couple of pops and drops adding up to 25K extra shares and I'll be their. I hate to tell you what my average was in Sept 08, with a lot less shares... It has been a grind for me and many other longs... :(

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Originally Posted by sxminvestor

I was updating my quicken stock price manually and put in $ 35 instead of .35 and I had a portfolio of 3.1 million - LOL

Talk about a dream.

I really just want 1.50 & I'd be ecstatic.

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I'll take my pre merger cost basis of 2.40.... that's actually what I feel I was robbed of by staying through the merger and all the BS afterward. Not to mention the Chest Tightening BK event...... Oh well time for me to go dream some pleasant thoughts.... Night All....

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Originally Posted by Newman

You see, you are not properly reading my posts. What makes you think that future Sirius radios will not be wifi? In fact, Brandon mentioned that when he went to NY and toured the Sirius building, he was told that ALL future radios would be WiFi. Perhaps that was meant as all PORTABLE radios, or perhaps just as it was said: ALL radios.

The problem that you (and many many many others) fail to realize is the fact that all of these ideas you and everyone else mention could be placed into a satellite radio just as easy as it could be put into a new phone or OEM install or what ever. Remember when I added that caveat that Sirius needed to change with the times? This is what I was talking about. If they added WiFi capabilities to every single radio that got produced and added the right functionality, SatRad would be everything you just mentioned and more as long as WiFi was available.
What if WiFi is not available? Well, then you still have the satellites beaming down your music, comedy, talk, etc, etc, etc. You could STILL have all of the same options even when WiFi wasnt available, but instead it would store the command and send it as soon as a signal was available.

You talk about Satellite Radio like it is in a vacuum. Technology can change but Sirius cant? That, my friend, is shortsighted...

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Sorry I have never had the opportunity to talk to Brandon, Tell him Hey Now for me if you ever get the chance to talk to him again. If there was a post about the wifi scenario sorry I missed it. If all of this is known than why all the smack being talked about Wifi killing SatRad?

Why isn't there more comments about how Wifi may be a plus for Siri? Lastly why is Charles talking about his nuclear powered cell phone with its own NASA docking station in his car so he doesn't have to worry about battery issues? I picture the car that Homer made on the Simpsons, Microwave, Slurpee machine etc.

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Originally Posted by cos1000

Well it is true that I look at it as a fan and a customer but, I am an investor who has been in for a while and got trapped by the merger fiasco.... I guess I was trying to say that as an investor there really isn't much to worry about over the next three years. In reality for me I will probably be out of this stock before any R/S, depending on momentum at the time... I'm just looking for double up and out from here on... My total in now is about 90K shares a total CPS of 1.27. My goal is to get my CPS to under a buck and I still feel that possible over the next couple of months. I just need a couple of pops and drops adding up to 25K extra shares and I'll be their. I hate to tell you what my average was in Sept 08, with a lot less shares... It has been a grind for me and many other longs... :(

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I hear ya,stuck my toe in at 30k shares at $1.44 in early august.then the bk
scare started and i caught a break and got in at .25 then .195 and last was
200K shares at .135 for total 400k at .26 avg..Had a budget of 75k to play with,but saw the Value and went higher,all with money i can risk tho...
My personal advice for all here is, if they can, avg down or buy more,but only with money they can walk away from and sleep at night...there is always risk involved with every investment,but some odds are better than others.