https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qA8HcFpgfg
Printable View
I guess I'm thinking of "competition" not so much as other/more/different audio content, but rather as anything that attracts the attention of clients away from Satrad. In SiriusXM's case those clients are, for the most part, drivers and passengers in cars. So what could disrupt that? Beats me but who knows what new technology can bring in the way of disruptive forces and unintended consequences? For example, the driverless car....when people can take their eyes off the road and spend their daily commute doing things other than just listening to the radio, what will they do? Perhaps they log into work...or watch the episode of "Game of Thrones" that they missed the previous evening....or maybe they will just sleep - but none of those examples involve Satrad. And the next thing you know all that expensive audio content isn't getting any love.Quote:
Originally Posted by MUSCLE13
I know that example is a stretch and it's out there a ways.... more than just a few years off, but I'm using it as kind of an exaggerated example of what disruptive competition could look like and what it could do to the status quo.
Here's another example: this morning I went golfing (shot 42 for 9 holes including 16 putts, from the black tees - pretty decent for me anyhow :)) I used a free app download to help me with yardage...it was accurate to probably within 5 yards....not great but plenty close enough for 14 handicapper.....there are plenty of these apps out there to choose from and they all offer basic yardage for free...so why would anyone buy one of those yardage viewers for $350? Some still do because they are extremely accurate, but like I said, for most of us a free app that is accurate to within 5 yds is close enough....now that's disruptive technology....same can be said for my mapping app on my phone...why buy a Garmin when I can just turn on my map app and get turn-by-turn voice instructions from anywhere to anywhere just by punching in the address of my destination?
@user and @muscle... just look at what UBER is doing. Disruptive? :) All I know is when I ask for a lift somewhere, that uber better have Sirius XM.
I think I am starting to recognize from your writing style and tech focus who you are. I agree with you on driverless cars being a threat maybe a decade or 2 out. Frear even mentioned video to cars as something Sirius has done and certainly they have an option to do again decades out with their spectrum.Quote:
Originally Posted by user34615145
But I am more concentrated on 2017 and SXM17 from a tech standpoint. I am a huge believer in content. People don't listen to terrestrial radio, sat radio or internet radio. They listen to Howard, MLB NFL Elvis Madonna or Lady Gaga. SXM 17 will give them the opportunity to listen to it live on sat or on demand on internet in the car. You can say Sirius is disrupting itself, or you can say Sirius is adding to its choice on how to listen to that content.
Hate to say it, but you are kind of wrong about that. I don't have Sirius XM and I do listen to the radio. My daughter uses Pandora. I am sure we aren't the only ones either. :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by MUSCLE13
THAT is exactly what you want! SiriusXM absolutely must disrupt itself if it hopes to remain relevant. And even if the technology is years down the road, they need to be thinking and preparing for that day now.Quote:
Originally Posted by MUSCLE13
Back to NFLX.....Regardless of what you think about their valuations - and I agree that they are ridiculously, outrageously, insanely high - you have to admit that they've done a masterful job of (barely) staying ahead of the technology curve - changing from a company that would send you DVD's in the mail to one that delivers it's on demand content via internet. It wasn't smooth (remember Qwikster?) but they did it. They've proven they can change with (ahead?) of the times so I'm not counting them out just yet.
I appreciate your insight muscle...it provides much food for thought!
I don't think you or your daughter listen to the radio. I think you listen to a financial talk show on terrestrial and your daughter listens to teen music on Pandora.Quote:
Originally Posted by midas360
I don't invest in disruption. I don't invest in counting on changing ahead. I invest in EBITDA, FCF and EPS with reasonable multiples in comparison to future growth. Great technological companies can have lousy stocks. Look at the net bubble of 99, 2000. Eyeballs mean nothing compared to dollars. And I am a huge believer in the dollar value of content so I invest in media content companies which I believe Sirius is. Not tech. Thanks for the compliment but we just never got along, and never will....Quote:
Originally Posted by user34615145
You are correct BUT when we are together going to school, we crank up ET Radio baby! :) BTW... I am feeling the "writing style" comment. I think it's Hamburger Helper Faulkner himself. You can't fool us!!!
What's funny is... I see both sides of your guys argument and I think you both are correct. Maybe Sirius XM goes to $6 by 2017 (muscle is right). Maybe by 2019, Apple, Google, Uber, Yo Mamma comes out with a new tech that wipes SIRI off the map. Ah who knows. PLACE YOUR BETS !!
I am still liking the Star Wars bet though!
Edit: What I would like to see is a completely new interface that is device independent meaning... as long as the device supports the automobile's hardware interface, you can plug in any device and use it on the screen. iMediaInterface or something....
Quote:
Originally Posted by MUSCLE13
Disagree. Have a good one........Quote:
Originally Posted by midas360
Sorry you think we don't get along, I've thought we get along just fine. The only time I don't "get along" with someone is when the personal insults start - I don't believe that's ever the case with you. I may not always agree with your logic, but I do appreciate it. As I've said in the past I pay attention to what other people think ESPECIALLY when their views differ from my own. I think that's what makes a forum like this valuable. In fact, a lot of times your views don't differ from mine...rather it's just that I've never thought about some point or another that you make so I, in turn, pose questions as sort of a "devils advocate" to get a better understanding of your rational. Not playing games or just pulling your chain to a rise out of you but genuinely interested in how/why you've come to the conclusion you have.Quote:
Originally Posted by MUSCLE13
For the record, I wouldn't touch NFLX right now with a ten foot pole.....I'm not counting them out, but I'm not counting them in either.....I'll sit that one out and let other people either get rich or go broke, but not me.
You too! :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by MUSCLE13
As I have stated in the past I totally have a differing view on forums than you. I use them to post information and think out loud. I have absolutely no interest in internet posters opinions and conversations with others. I like to use forums as a log of info. A link means much more than a conversation to me. I believe in trade and financial mag articles and highly informed media analysts. Some analysts are great, some are horrible. Have a good one.Quote:
Originally Posted by user34615145
Actually, I really think you and User are much more alike than you think. Your approach to investing is quite similar. You both use the forum as a sounding board. Kind of blows my mind how much you 2 think alike. I dunno. I could be wrong.
Edit: I figured it out. User is Muscle talking to himself. I KNEW IT!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by MUSCLE13
Alright i gotta call bs on this one muscle...i love ya but this post makes no sense. You have no use or interest in posters opinions yet for the last six months you have been going back and forth with just about anyone and everyone here. I enjoy your posts...but for you to state what you just stated is disingenuous.Quote:
Originally Posted by MUSCLE13
I go back and forth with you because you are using about 10 different names. I hate multiple aliases. But user is not you, and no Midas it is not me either. I never use multiple names. It serves absolutely no purpose. User is someone I have disagreed with tremendously. Take care dudes.Quote:
Originally Posted by dm_4
Markets seemed to have calmed this week. Disney over 104 again. I like it. Have a good weekend dudes.
ok so you dont like hanging out where there are supposedly mutliple users...you dont like or need to interact with others concerning opinions on financial stuff...but yet here you are??? I dont really understand the logic....but hey whatever man...still love ya.Quote:
Originally Posted by MUSCLE13
Thoughts on CBS? been taking a beating...i know you were high on that one too. Was 65 just a few months ago...now low 40s.
Out of all the media you mention.....Comcast is the powerhouse. Good buy here.
As Mel said TWX and CBS need to merge. They are the perfect fit. I don't think it will happen soon. Love Moonves , but don't think Bewkes from TWX wants to merge and I believe that is mistake. Separated out they are too small. Together they are a Disney competitor.Quote:
Originally Posted by dm_4
Comcast - I adore the business model and valuation with a supreme mgmt team. I think they are a 100 dollar stock. But it will take a couple years. I so look forward to Watchable (YouTube competitor), and Wifi MVNO possibilities. The valuation is what makes me drool. 7-8 times EBITDA on something that should be trading at 12 times.
You dont love me and I dont love you. But I did teach you EBITDA and you threw it in my face
@muscle... You can use the forum however you like. If you want to use the forum as an investing log or history so you can go back and refer to it, great. If you use it as a sounding board to help you think thru your analysis, that's great too. I don't think anyone minds. You just have to realize that there are other investors/traders here reading what you are posting. We may agree or disagree but we all have one goal in mind and that is to make money. It's really that simple. I think the question comes in is "where" are we going to make money. We all have differing opinions. Basically what I am saying is we are all a bunch of cocksuckers trying to earn a buck or 2. Have a great weekend! :)