SIRI Monthly Thread November 2014

20 cent channel, though it has been in top half since gap over 200 day on 10/31

$3.43 / $3.53 / $3.63 current L / M / H

Be good for it to go ping the 50 or even the 200 on an intra day basis one more time here but with only 3 trading days (one of them being a half day Friday) I am not so sure it will.

Can see a scenario where it breaks $3.63 on or around early next week and quickly goes to $3.85 area within 4 or 5 trading days. Obviously I am biased towards that type of move...

I still don't see $2.70 and I don't think the overall market is due for some kind of crash... but that would be great for SIRI considering how much $$$ they are about to have available after the converts are out. I mean, that's 88 cents down... 25% down.... 25% reduction in share price = 33% more shares for same money....

Bring on $2.70... please! :)

Nice job creating those fake Seeking Alpha profiles. That was kind of Brandon kind of move but expected. Well, you know what they say what's good for the goose is good for the gander and posting an address of a public website that contains names, addresses, phone numbers, and pictures is only a mouse click away. I am sure you thought long a hard about it before making your decision, right? Go ahead and post away, makes no difference to me. If this response is because you think I am Crunching Numbers or anyone else, you're wrong. I do not create fake profiles on Seeking Alpha. Thanks for clarifying that you were the one that created the Seeking Alpha profile. You've earned +1 respect points from me too.

Note2Forum: Never post your analysis or opinion about Sirius XM if it goes against Faulkner's analysis. He is the only one that can have a say.

I stand by my October analysis below. If I am wrong, so be it. Even the weatherman gets it wrong. Have a nice day!

Original Analysis from October: "SIRI will sell off over the course of the next quarter, its momentum down will be based largely on the large market sell off. It could get there a bit before or a bit after. So I’ll say over the next 3-4 months. The large market sell off will be attributed to some of the same things I mention will impact SIRI. Example: many of the corp buybacks will ’slow down’ because of the stress in the high yield credit markets. Corp buybacks have helped inflate the equity market (read: help increase the multiple). I can;t tell you when it will end only where its likely to end. But, I will only tell you the move has begun, and we should see a resolution over the next 3 to 4 months. It's not a one day event, its normalization."

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Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA

midas I appreciate the posting of apology. You've earned +1 respect points.

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I didn't post that ;) I don't care enough lol. Funny though :P

Doesn't matter what the verdict in ferguson is tonight.....its going up in flames :explode: either way. :guns:

#Turdferguson http://www.hulu.com/watch/12203

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Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA

#Turdferguson http://www.hulu.com/watch/12203

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:thumbup:

Siri continues to trade exactly in step with LMCK (at 10:1). Very interesting.

1 1/2 more trading days til Dec 1st

been a long time coming

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Originally Posted by bdp.

Siri continues to trade exactly in step with LMCK (at 10:1). Very interesting.

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what do you make of it bdp, if anything? tia.

Getting closer to my $3.80 2014 year end target. 20 times FCF per share. Next up $4.80 year end 2015 and $6 year end 2016. FCF per share projected by the street to grow over 20% annually. Just as Mel targeted years ago. Meyer follows through on the plan.

Amazing that free cash flow and buybacks to lower the share count really matter, isn't it?

Business models matter.

From 3.15 to 3.60 in a little over a month, 31% increase...glad to see it!

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Originally Posted by dm_4

From 3.15 to 3.60 in a little over a month, 31% increase...glad to see it!

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Why do you think I was buying in the 3 dollar range earlier this year. First time I got interested in buying since Mel left. The stock was extremely undervalued based on Free Cash Flow per share. And at the rate they are growing FCF and buying back stock it should be an awesome 2 year run.

Free Cash Flow per share matters.

Almost 6 Mil. shares traded after hrs. tonight. ( Buy Back ??????????)

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Originally Posted by njbones1

Almost 6 Mil. shares traded after hrs. tonight. ( Buy Back ??????????)

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After hours: Low 3.59, Hight 3.615 :thumbup:

Think there was some index rebalancing today at end of day.

I am a little more optimistic than you Muscle. I have a target of 5.50 by year end 2015 and 7 by year end 2016. I'm all in from many years ago with core and bought a bunch more at the 3.30 level. I'm really looking for this stock to get back on track the next 24 months no matter what ticker SIRI is sporting.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone in SIRI-land!

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Originally Posted by MUSCLE13

Getting closer to my $3.80 2014 year end target. 20 times FCF per share. Next up $4.80 year end 2015 and $6 year end 2016. FCF per share projected by the street to grow over 20% annually. Just as Mel targeted years ago. Meyer follows through on the plan.

Amazing that free cash flow and buybacks to lower the share count really matter, isn't it?

Business models matter.

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Originally Posted by beehaus

I am a little more optimistic than you Muscle. I herave a target of 5.50 by year end 2015 and 7 by year end 2016. I'm all in from many years ago with core and bought a bunch more at the 3.30 level. I'm really looking for this stock to get back on track the next 24 months no matter what ticker SIRI is sporting.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone in SIRI-land!

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Are your targets based on FCF multiples or are they on EV/EBITDA multiples? Pretty aggressive dude. Love to know your numbers. Please post them. Thanks

Sorry I should have clarified that this is based on my amateur technical analysis. Basically drawing a trend line from Feb 2009 to today and extending it out. My optimism comes from seeing the breakdown to Sept/Oct 2011 through June 2012 and then seeing the stock get back on track to the peak of Oct 2013, when went from roughly 1.85 to 4.05. So if we get back on track we could see a similar run in the next 24months. Aggressive I agree, but I don't think is irrational either. Really only .70 to 1.00 above your estimates.

Any other tech analysis guys out there that have a similar or different take?

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Originally Posted by MUSCLE13

Are your targets based on FCF multiples or are they on EV/EBITDA multiples? Pretty aggressive dude. Love to know your numbers. Please post them. Thanks

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Originally Posted by beehaus

Sorry I should have clarified that this is based on my amateur technical analysis. Basically drawing a trend line from Feb 2009 to today and extending it out. My optimism comes from seeing the breakdown to Sept/Oct 2011 through June 2012 and then seeing the stock get back on track to the peak of Oct 2013, when went from roughly 1.85 to 4.05. So if we get back on track we could see a similar run in the next 24months. Aggressive I agree, but I don't think is irrational either. Really only .70 to 1.00 above your estimates.

Any other tech analysis guys out there that have a similar or different take?

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Understood. Sorry I don't believe in technical analysis at all. My numbers are based on projecting 19 cents FCF per share this year, 24 cents FCF ps 2015, and 30 cents FCF ps 2016. I think my 2016 is a little above consensus FCF but not many analysts are reaching that far out yet. I believe Jessica has a couple pennies lower, and I am not sure why. I know she is projecting 20% annual EBITDA growth out a few years which I love. Spencer never once believed me that Sirius could continuously produce 20% EBITDA growth years ago. And they have produced it year in and year out since. The numbers don't lie. Mel's plan all along. Very happy that Meyer follows it precisely. And gives us FCF per share #'s every single quarter. Mel was talking about FCF back in the early 90s with Infinity Broadcasting, even before the street was considering EV/EBITDA let alone FCF.......

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