What doesn't the street like? What the hell do they want? I was happy with what I read and heard. I am hoping Jessica re-iterates her $5 price target...Quote:
Originally Posted by denco1
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What doesn't the street like? What the hell do they want? I was happy with what I read and heard. I am hoping Jessica re-iterates her $5 price target...Quote:
Originally Posted by denco1
So we did keep falling and hit 3.38 like I predicted. You think now we bounce or crap out?Quote:
Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA
My thought is after that BS .10 take down yesterday with a decent report we'd end up where we started (yesterday).....Quote:
Originally Posted by bdp.
Gap filled.... un f'n believable
GREAT JOB SWITCH!
I really thought that being north of 3.50 and above the 200 day in Pre would spook the shorts into a litle run up at the open. Guess not.
So now that Switch and bdp got their shares cheap and the shorts got yet another clean escape maybe the rest of us can make some $$ and finish UP
"Sirius profits fall as expenses rise". That's my guess.Quote:
Originally Posted by Slip60
It's all a bunch of BS. LMCA wanted SIRI to take advantage of the last 2 high volume days to pick up more on the cheap. They bought 6% of the outstanding shares in Q2. That alone should have put us over $3.60. Eventually it will be very good for the long. Maybe they are making the last buys before another offer from Liberty. If not, then shares outstanding will continue to decrease at double the rate of what analysts had anticipated and longs will eventually be rewarded.
EDIT: In the meantime......Fk SIRI and Liberty for putting the longs through this crap.:bs:
This just blows....un****ing real. i am convinced more than ever now its the same ole same ole shit going forward. I said before this cc that i would keep my core in siri until the end of the year. I am not so sure i feel the same way now. I am thinking long and hard about this now. What to fckn do...what to ****n do?? We couldnt even hit 3.50 intra day today. So lets see if i can call this. In a few weeks we might hit 3.70.....then pulls back to 3.50.....then 3.58.....then boom....back to 3.38....then there might be an offer for our shares for 3.80....then that will push stock price to 4.00 then back down to 3.80...and by that time it will be feb 2015. Am i very far off? Sorry just venting.
Per TD Ameritrade News
Barrington Research Releases Bullish Coverage On Sirius XM
Last update: 29/07/2014 1:26:35 pm
In a report released Tuesday, Barrington Research analyst James Goss released coverage on Sirius XM (NASDAQ: SIRI) while reaffirming its Outperform rating.
Analysts at Barrington favor Sirius' ability to consistently increase revenue; the company increased revenue by 9.9 percent from Q2 2013. Sirius currently displays EBITDA margins of 35.8 percent compared to 28.1 percent year-over-year and free cash flow of $335 million.
Sirius reported a heavy increase in new subscribers, adding 1.5 million subscribers in 2014. The Barrington note focused on Sirius' vehicle segment, representing nearly 27 percent of total vehicles domestically, with a projection of nearly doubling to 120 million in the next five years. The current install rate is 70 percent on new vehicles.
current look with a couple of trend lines....looking a bit like an ascending triangle?
With the top being the 61.8%
Attachment 1276
Holding in this area and moving up a bit we could see the golden cross in about EDIT 10-15 or so trading days. That 50 is moving up pretty fast..
Clearly we need to get above the 200 though...
I took a nice nap. Glad I did... I'd probably be pulling my hair out today... and I have a nice head of hair. Not nice like this guy here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-zJt5mXNTg
But still nice. (If I had cartoons available like kids do today I'd be a total mess.... drugs and everything.... I worry about our future generations :P )
I can't make heads or tails of the activity today. I remember many quarters ago there was a report that came in that was fairly nice and then the stock sold off and bounced pretty hard (can't pinpoint which one and not interested in digging).
Anyways, only concern that may exist is that they have not pulled more debt for the next buyback set. They do have the revolver so that is available to use (and I'd expect them to keep buying in this area if it was good enough before). 550 mil ? available until they hit 4X leverage? About the same available in cash flow to the end of the year and then in Dec the converts free up more debt space. $1.65B? Perhaps shorts see opportunity / a potential lull in repurchases again. Buybacks can continue but not at the pace of Q2... would have to scale it down by about a third.
350 million bought back in the quarter. No mention of buybacks to date that I can find... they may not have bought back in July which means pace could be faster than that third reduction in pace above.
Since price is firmly above the converts that debt is essentially "shares" in a few months and I'm wondering if ratings agencies would be forgiving on debt issuance above 4X given that that half bil will come off in early December and go out as shares.
Anyways... random thoughts. Still have the options and don't feel nervous about them. Might take a few days or a week or more to break that 200... but it seems like it's coming. 50 day pace up by half a penny a day, 100 day is about to flatline and turn up next week, and 200 is running out of downside steam.
It was a good call.
Yes what denco said. Seeing same thing.
Math may be a little off above. 4xEBITA is 5.7B we're at 4.115B. The games they are playing with the balance sheet additional 700m for buybacksout of cash flow . Makes for a total of 2.3B. No taxes being paid. Revolving account may not be considered as part of the 4x. May be more flexability. Not sure if any of this is right but I'm no accountant. Anyone????Quote:
Originally Posted by Faulkner_SA
I am so tempted to load up to the hilt AH 3.41. Am I completely foolish? I have a strong gut feeling we see a slow but steady rise from here on out. Today was just the typical Sirius WTF routine. Although I hoped for rational action, I completely expected the pop and drop. I'm considering going all in before the end of AM. Somebody please talk me out of it if you have good reason this is a knucklehead move.
remember when we were at 3.25.................... 17 months ago
SF....Nice article....thanks man. Since SA banned me months back (surprise, surprise) i can no longer leave comments. You state in the article "This means that only 534,238 new subscribers are needed to reach this goal." Hell we could hit that number in Q4 alone....no? Again thanks for the article.
I am not expecting any strong bull moves up in sp near term but i get the feeling based on the article that a bull move in sp can be reasonably expected by year end.
Big drop posted in shares outstanding. Does not include converts but still. Between liberty and institutional they own 84% rounding up. That is if no institutional buying is posted before the 15th. They have to post it 45 days after end of quarter. :cool: Enough money approved in buybacks to remove 2/3rds of what is left in retail hands. I don't know about anyone else but I'm in and holding on for the ride. Things are going to get interesting!!!
I'm thinking Liberty takes SIRI to 4.5x. I believe the calculation is based on the TTM of EBITDA also. But I think by next January/February, the debt load will be up to around $6.4B (1.425B x 4.5). I really think Malone/Maffei are going to stretch the limits as long as it doesn't negatively affect the credit rating.Quote:
Originally Posted by Raptor
I'm not certain if the revolving LOC counts against the debt/EBITDA ratio. I have been assuming it does for now - does anyone else know?
Was wondering when wunderf@ck would pop out of the cake and piss on us
http://www.analystratings.net/stocks...lMedia-Unknown
13 million shares traded in first hour, good volume.....lets see if it carries thru all day.
How much of a role has options played in keeping us from hitting 3.50?
closing above that trend line with a 3.46 or higher could be a good sign for a break of the 200 and a 3.50 print in the coming days....
Attachment 1277