Market Watch for the week of 7/27/2009

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Originally Posted by billhart22

Good candle, but look at the spike there...it is very sharp...I would really be prepared if I owned it for tomorrow morning. If it spikes up more I would sell and be prepared for it to fall on its ass. Just my thoughts. What kind of product are they selling?

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Oh yeah, this guy is definately up and down, so I guess its a 2 day rule. They are a booze distributor - I think I posted about them in one of the previous threads... they have contracts with famous people and a kind of booze (sometimes non-booze), ie. Willie Nelson's Old Whiskey River (whiskey), Trump Vodka, Newman's Natural Juices. They signed Dr. Dre for a cognac, those were the previous spikes, but it never came to fruition. Then they signed Kid Rock for a beer. It actually debuted at his detroit concert last weekend, so it looks to me like a dump and pump. I just want it off my books.

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Originally Posted by Dr. Dave

Oh yeah, this guy is definately up and down, so I guess its a 2 day rule. They are a booze distributor - I think I posted about them in one of the previous threads... they have contracts with famous people and a kind of booze (sometimes non-booze), ie. Willie Nelson's Old Whiskey River (whiskey), Trump Vodka, Newman's Natural Juices. They signed Dr. Dre for a cognac, those were the previous spikes, but it never came to fruition. Then they signed Kid Rock for a beer. It actually debuted at his detroit concert last weekend, so it looks to me like a dump and pump. I just want it off my books.

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Oh, that is the company that caters to corporate events and such, right? Really, who would want to buy whiskey because Willy Nelson's name is on it? Why not put Janis Joplin's name on it...then you have a product!

Yeah its just TD ameritrades strategy desk. And Bill im not asking for the formula by any means I can take care of that pretty easy, just looking for something in the ballpark of the examples i gave there. "Buy on so 'n' so, sell on this 'r' that". It has most of the popular indiactors and most of the candles. I just tried a "buy on bullish doji, sell on hanging man". It didnt make many trades on the 15,60 or daily interval, but the ones it did were good. Im sure i just need to use a couple more common candles.
Im thinking of writing a "flipping formula" where it would be dependant on a stock trading in a certain channel for a couple days, then start buying and selling on a one tick basis with a set number of shares.

Has anyone else been able to find the PR I from BCLE I posted earlier? If not will someone else with an iPhone pleAse install the free DailyFinance application, search for BCLE, click the news tab, and see if you can find the PR too?
I'd appreciate it.

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Originally Posted by thetree

Yeah its just TD ameritrades strategy desk. And Bill im not asking for the formula by any means I can take care of that pretty easy, just looking for something in the ballpark of the examples i gave there. "Buy on so 'n' so, sell on this 'r' that". It has most of the popular indiactors and most of the candles. I just tried a "buy on bullish doji, sell on hanging man". It didnt make many trades on the 15,60 or daily interval, but the ones it did were good. Im sure i just need to use a couple more common candles.
Im thinking of writing a "flipping formula" where it would be dependant on a stock trading in a certain channel for a couple days, then start buying and selling on a one tick basis with a set number of shares.

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That would be awesome...Dr. Dave is a programmer, however he doesn't sleep as it is. I don't know how he does it.

A program like you are speaking about would be a terrific tool! :)

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Originally Posted by billhart22

I think I need a class on how to interpret that. Is there an explanation for the uninitiated?

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It's just a condition that he's trying to seek - that will answer yes or no - ie. is this a bullish doji star. I don't know the exact language, as they differ from software to software, but you can usually deduce it.. .ie. for the first line, it just looks like they want to make sure that the doji is in a downtrend, not an up trend to define the bullishness - ie. the code likely means -

(Bar[High,D,1] + Bar[Low,D,1]) / 2 < ExpMovingAverage[EMA,Close,10,0,D,1] AND

Bar = a candle, or a bar
High = that bar's high price
Low = the low price
D = Daily chart
1 = probably means the last daily bar, 2 would likely mean the one prior

So -
"(Bar[High,D,1] + Bar[Low,D,1]) / 2" probably means - take the last daily bar's high and low, add them together and divide by 2 to get the average.

then
"< ExpMovingAverage[EMA,Close,10,0,D,1]"

is that average less than the EMA, using closes to calc the EMA, looking 10 day's back on the daily starting at the last daily bar. Not sure what the "0" likely is in there.

Then the rest of the condition has to be met - ie. the "AND".



Anyway, good luck with it - I used to go all night trying to come up with those things! Superaddictive.

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Originally Posted by billhart22

That would be awesome...Dr. Dave is a programmer, however he doesn't sleep as it is. I don't know how he does it.

A program like you are speaking about would be a terrific tool! :)

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People die from playing World of Warcraft and Tour of Duty. I could die from this, so be careful Tree - make sure you eat and sleep.

Good lord - look at my signature, I'm so sucked in - there's only two stocks in there trading over $10.

and technically, they are both option plays - so that doesn't even count. :thumbup:

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Originally Posted by ShotsII

Lol. I honestly don't know what's going to happen now. If you read the hub, sentiment there has turned very negative. Even people who said they were longs last week are bashing it this week. Not the strongest position to be in.

I knew yesterday that it would continue to fall without news so when no PR this morning I placed a sell order before market open. I've taken my investment out and am now just sitting on free shares. I hope you're able to get yourself on a similar situaton.

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I was going to place an order also, but I am a glutton for punishment. I am playing long. I read the hub and a few seem to think this stock is the best thing since slice bread. Actually, if and when it goes up again, I will take my investment out also. So much better playing with the houses money...

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Originally Posted by Dr. Dave

Good lord - look at my signature, I'm so sucked in - there's only two stocks in there trading over $10.

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It's good for you! That is a shitload of stocks though. I wish I had that problem, but I am working on it. The most I have had at one given time this year was six or seven.

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Originally Posted by Dr. Dave

People die from playing World of Warcraft and Tour of Duty. I could die from this, so be careful Tree - make sure you eat and sleep.

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LOL, Dr. your on fire! (figuratively) :fireman:

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Originally Posted by Dr. Dave

Then they signed Kid Rock for a beer. It actually debuted at his detroit concert last weekend, so it looks to me like a dump and pump. I just want it off my books.

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i don't know if they signed KR but I was at the concert and the line for his beer was Loooooong, longer than the lines for anyother beer stand (right place to sell kid rock beer of course though)

Yeah you have the jist of it dave. It isnt as time consuming as it looks. Luckily TDA has a wizard that spits out the formulas for you. I just need some ideas. It's really hard coming up with things that i think will work in most circumstances. For example buy on high volume doesnt work because it can be going down so I have to qualify it by saying AND price on the 30min higher than 3 bars ago. Its so hard because an hour and a half in pennies is a lifetime (in a serious run) but if it was 5 or 10 minute charts it could just be a small spike and not a real trend, or it might not be moving fast enough to trigger in that case.
From the short time ive been doing this, it seems that high volume and a rising price are always a good buy, but with the volitility of these stocks, what would be a good sign of a reversal?
And dave, do you have any idea how these types of programs handle the volume? If i tell it to buy on a day when the volume is higher than yesterday, how does it know before the end of the day? does it just have a formula of some kind that breaks the day down into smaller increments and judges by the volume to that point?

not sure if this works without an account but : http://www.tdameritrade.com/Strategy...elp.html?p=fbw

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Originally Posted by thetree

Yeah you have the jist of it dave. It isnt as time consuming as it looks. Luckily TDA has a wizard that spits out the formulas for you. I just need some ideas. It's really hard coming up with things that i think will work in most circumstances. For example buy on high volume doesnt work because it can be going down so I have to qualify it by saying AND price on the 30min higher than 3 bars ago. Its so hard because an hour and a half in pennies is a lifetime (in a serious run) but if it was 5 or 10 minute charts it could just be a small spike and not a real trend, or it might not be moving fast enough to trigger in that case.
From the short time ive been doing this, it seems that high volume and a rising price are always a good buy, but with the volitility of these stocks, what would be a good sign of a reversal?
And dave, do you have any idea how these types of programs handle the volume? If i tell it to buy on a day when the volume is higher than yesterday, how does it know before the end of the day? does it just have a formula of some kind that breaks the day down into smaller increments and judges by the volume to that point?

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All those languages are program specific - so you'll have to dig thru the manuals or if you get stuck, email the broker. Usually though to tell if the volume is up for the day, they just multiply by the current time (ie. minutes or whatever you are into the trading day, and divide by the total time for that period - ie. if minutes, the number of minutes in the day)... the danger you run into is the large amount of trading that occurs at the beginning and end of the day. I'm sure good programs can partition it out.

Anyway, doing this stuff with pennies is a valiant effort!

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Originally Posted by imromo24

i don't know if they signed KR but I was at the concert and the line for his beer was Loooooong, longer than the lines for anyother beer stand (right place to sell kid rock beer of course though)

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Did you try it? It's a tough call for this stock - its been beaten down a lot, but if traders get happy with the beer outcome, it could have a decent run up. I want to remove at least 3/4 of what I have though.

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Originally Posted by billhart22

It's good for you! That is a shitload of stocks though. I wish I had that problem, but I am working on it. The most I have had at one given time this year was six or seven.

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I think managing 6 should be the limit - get's too hard with the juggling act. The DRYS and UUP in my sig are actually option trades gone bad - those don't actually expire for quite sometime, but are basically worthless. I should have cashed out - I got them before I decided (or figured out with my sleep schedule) that very short term is the way to go for me.

Hey, Bill and the gang, hope all is going well!!! :)

Here are some pennies that some of you may want to check out, or watch.

SKVI

BCKR

BEDA

HTDS

GBOE

And Bill's favorite from last week, CBIS, I watched this go from .07 all the way to a dollar, volume was iffy on most days, so I did not touch it.
Kicking myself for not jumping on the dope stock!!! Beta is high!!

Not sure how things are going here, have not even had time to do any lurking. I hope some of these look good, have not had time to dig around on any of them. Take it easy everyone!!! :)

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Originally Posted by thetree

Yeah you have the jist of it dave. It isnt as time consuming as it looks. Luckily TDA has a wizard that spits out the formulas for you. I just need some ideas. It's really hard coming up with things that i think will work in most circumstances. For example buy on high volume doesnt work because it can be going down so I have to qualify it by saying AND price on the 30min higher than 3 bars ago. Its so hard because an hour and a half in pennies is a lifetime (in a serious run) but if it was 5 or 10 minute charts it could just be a small spike and not a real trend, or it might not be moving fast enough to trigger in that case.
From the short time ive been doing this, it seems that high volume and a rising price are always a good buy, but with the volitility of these stocks, what would be a good sign of a reversal?
And dave, do you have any idea how these types of programs handle the volume? If i tell it to buy on a day when the volume is higher than yesterday, how does it know before the end of the day? does it just have a formula of some kind that breaks the day down into smaller increments and judges by the volume to that point?

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Here's one thing that will help - go to www.ddmachine.com or somewhere where you can get a list of tickers - then do your backtest analysis on time periods after these things have fallen over. Because they are so volatile, you may even want to cut out the flat areas too. Then after you have some criteria set up, wait a month or so, and try it out on some new stocks that hit the radar. You could maybe put in a genearal overall filter to make sure a longer term moving average (say 100-150 EMA) is moving upward or flat, and the price is above - then add your stuff to that. This will require you to put in the dates for each ticker for a run, but it will help.