SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 11/03/08

The normal little tease in AH, I suppose.....

Nov. 5, 2008

Market Close: $ 0.2601

After Hours Trade Reporting

After Hours
Last: $ .27
After Hours
High: $ .2834
After Hours
Volume: 813,382
After Hours
Low: $ .26

SIRI hit .32 in early pre-mkt trading.

See thread "SiriusXM releases projections

That's good to know......

ok, so who is going to analyze the report and tell us if its good, bad or pretty much expected from previous reports?

It's good. Or, let's say, not as bad as expected.

Well, SIRI is up 15%. Must be good.

UPDATE 1-Sirius XM warns auto troubles hurting growth

NEW YORK, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI) warned that the dramatic slowdown in car sales would hurt subscriber growth next year, as it issued an updated financial outlook in light of its negotiations with banks to cover debt coming due in 2009.

Sirius XM Radio, which is talking to financial institutions about ways to replace 2.5 percent convertible notes, has struggled since the company was formed last summer in the $3.3 billion merger of Sirius Satellite Radio and XM Satellite Radio.

The ailing auto industry is one of the major problems for Sirius XM, since new vehicle sales are a key avenue for subscriber growth. The company also has been hard hit by competition from other media, like iPods, and an economic slowdown that has consumers watching their spending. Shares of the company are stubbornly stuck below $1.

"Current economic conditions, particularly the dramatic and recent slowdown in auto sales, have negatively impacted subscriber growth for 2008 and 2009," the company said in its forecast.

It said it expects to end 2008 with 19.1 million subscribers, and end 2009 with 20.6 million subscribers.

But it said it "remains confident" in its revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2008 and 2009. That guidance did not change.

Sirius XM projected 2009 revenue of $2.7 billion, 2010 revenue of $3 billion, and 2011 revenue of $3.4 billion.




I think these are bad news, how can the stock be trading between 13% to 14% up from yesterday, is it because they did not change their guidance ? Do you'all think these news are already built into the .26 - .32 stock price range ?

SiriusOwner,

I believe it is positive because it shows that they will be able to re-finance the Feb. converts without issuing new converts or going bankrupt.

Mel forecast the 08' 19.5 million and the '09 21.5 million subscriber #'s in the 8K and at the presentation on 9/9/08 - just under two months ago. Mel just reiterated the 19.5 million '08 year end subscriber forecast about 3 weeks ago on Oct. 14th at the Dow Jones Newswires Media and Money Conference.

Now he lowers his '08 year end forecast 400 million to 19.1 million and lowers his 2009 year end forecast 900 million to 20.6 million?

Is this further under promising or did he not under promise enough the first time?

This article has a huge error or lie in it. It says that SIRI has $300 million in converts due in Feb. '09 - when in fact it's 250 million now after the two recent stock for debt exchanges. I am emailing the author now and I hope you do the same!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...4wI&refer=news

Sirius XM in Talks to Refinance Debt, Cuts Forecast (Update2)
By James Callan

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Sirius XM Radio Inc., the only U.S. pay-radio broadcaster, said it's in talks with banks to refinance debt due next year and lowered its forecast for subscriber growth after U.S. car sales plummeted.

The company is seeking to replace 2.5 percent convertible notes due next year, Sirius XM said in a statement today. It faces $1.1 billion in loan repayments in 2009, including $300 million in convertible bonds in February.

Sirius XM's subscriber growth relies on U.S. auto sales, which plunged for the 12th straight month in October. Shares of Sirius XM, led by Chief Executive Officer Mel Karmazin, have traded below $1 since Sept. 10 amid the economic contraction and the biggest slowdown in consumer spending in 28 years.

``Mel Karmazin is making the best of a bad situation that seems to have gotten worse because of economic conditions which are beyond his control,'' Fred Moran, a Boca Raton, Florida-based analyst with Stanford Financial Group, said in an interview. ``Refinancing this debt will be an uphill battle.'' Moran recommends holding on to the shares and doesn't own any.

Sirius XM, home to Howard Stern and the National Football League, rose 2 cents to 28 cents at 10:44 a.m. in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The shares had plunged 91 percent this year before today.

Chief Executive Officer Mel Karmazin's $2.76 billion all- stock purchase of XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. in July created a company with more than 18.5 million subscribers. Sirius XM today predicted 19.1 million subscribers by year-end, less than its earlier forecast for 19.5 million, and lowered the 2009 projection to 20.6 million from 21.5 million.

`Dramatic'

``Current economic conditions, particularly the dramatic and recent slowdown in auto sales, have negatively impacted subscriber growth for 2008 and 2009,'' Sirius XM said in the statement. The company reiterated its forecast for adjusted earnings of $300 million in 2009 on revenue of $2.7 billion.

U.S. auto sales plummeted 32 percent in October in what General Motors Corp. called the worst month for the industry since 1945 after accounting for population growth. Reduced access to loans and a weaker economy kept people away from car dealerships. Sirius XM has agreements with automakers to preinstall its satellite radios in vehicles.

`Hostile Market'

``The threat of refinancing debt in hostile market conditions is the biggest issue weighing on the stock,'' James Goss, an analyst with Barrington Research in Chicago, said in an interview. ``The biggest challenge is the debt issue and they seem confident, but it's not entirely under their control.'' Goss rates the shares ``outperform'' and doesn't own any.

Credit terms have loosened recently. The benchmark London interbank offered rate, what banks charge each other for three- month loans in dollars, dropped today to 2.39 percent, the lowest level in four years, after reaching a 12-month high of 5.15 on Dec. 5.

Last month, Sirius said it may issue stock to repay the debt and asked shareholders to approve a reverse split. That would help Sirius keep its Nasdaq listing by pushing the price back over $1. That was a change from August, when Karmazin said the company had no plans for a reverse split.

The Federal Communications Commission voted 3-2 on July 25 to approve the merger of the XM and Sirius. Concerned that traditional radio operators might get a judge to block the combination, Sirius struck an ``ugly'' debt deal to quickly complete the purchase of Washington-based XM, Karmazin said in August.

To contact the reporter on this story: James Callan in New York at jcallan2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 6, 2008 11:16 EST