15 min to showtime and no daily thread started?
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15 min to showtime and no daily thread started?
I know. I don't understand why though.
*yawn*
Good Morning Best And Brightest
Thanks for starting the thread. I was up early and headed to the airport. Hit traffic, missed my flight, so am now stuck at the airport waiting for another flight.
What are everyones thoughts on the earnings preview I published?
Good Morning everyone!!!
Tyler, posted on my 1 time charges in article,but everything else looks about right,Good Job in breaking it down...It will be spun badly at first ,then if we get some good guidance,which they have to start doing again,we will rebound into Thanksgiving 3Q CC..
Your low on revenue. Other than that, I cant argue with you.Quote:
Originally Posted by TSavery
First things first . . . Superb work Tyler; Tuna Amobi has nothing on you.Quote:
Originally Posted by TSavery
Thank you. I have said it before . . you are the "franchise"
There is very little to disagree with in your piece, however, Irish' research shows less impact due to refi . . any thoughts?
Also, I am still hopeful that the CPO channel will have been more additive than expected . . to both top & bottom line (nominal subsidies)
fyi . . spammer is loading-up threads with sneaker ads . .
S-Kill,Cpo really didn't start until recently,some were as far back as march,but most were in the 2Q April-June,so we shouldn't see any benefit until 3Q and Really 4Q...we might see like 10k self pay sub adds,but that is reaching..IMHOQuote:
Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill
With 1 time charges,which the company always has,and seeing as how i forsaw none with unexpected bond deals,i'm revising my own est. of Eps from positive .01 to .03 down to even.00 to -(.02)..Est. is -(.013) so we should meet estimates..
Churn on self pay is key.with 1Q being 2.2% and Tyler expecting 1.8 to 1.9 %,if it goes down to 1.7 or lower we will be positive EPS..IMHO....
Yes, true as far as VW, MB & BMW . . but I was surprised to see that the CPO program has been around for quite some time . . check-out this news release from Oct 2006 (note 33% CPO penetration even back then):Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM
Posted on: Wednesday, 11 October 2006, 09:00 CDT
WASHINGTON, Oct. 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- XM Satellite Radio , the nation's leading satellite radio service with more than 7 million subscribers, and Acura today announced the first complimentary satellite radio service program for Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) vehicles. Beginning this fall, Acura will offer three months of complimentary XM service on CPO Acura models with factory-installed XM Satellite Radio, including: RL, TL, TSX and MDX. Acura currently inspects, certifies and remarkets more than 35,000 previously-owned vehicles per year, with approximately one-third featuring standard XM Satellite Radio, a rate that will grow over time as XM continues to be offered as standard equipment across Acura models.
Roadkill....Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill
Acura is part of Honda, and was an XM staple along wih GM. Acura sales are decent, but make up less than 1% of the new car market. If you assume 1.7 million annualized as the CPO market, you need to consider the penetration rate across the board. The numbers are still pretty low. If they were anything substantial you would see it being talked about in Quarterly calls. I have always built in a small fudge factor into my model for the used car market.
Franchise.....LOL. Thank you for the compliment, but I am nothing more than an average person who has followed this equity closely over the years, who happens to have a website.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill
I think that my position (having sold most of it prior to writting, and simply holding the rest) lets me look at this equity objectively. I make my money and trade in other equities.
David J. Frear
And then with respect to the used car market, with the OEMs, we’re in an early stage of launch in operationalizing how you approach the used car market, and while I would say it’s not a -- it doesn’t have a significant impact this year on our subscriber base, it’s going to grow rapidly that these kind of initial cars there were factory enabled by all of the OEMs are really now just beginning to show up in size in the used car market. So we’re getting the CPO program, certified pre-owned vehicle programs in place with the automakers. We’re doing more customized programs in the used car market that is outside of certified pre-owned, and I think we’ll have more news on that for you as we come into next year.
Mel Karmazin
Longer term, that market, which already has the SAC there, I mean, the radio is already in the car and our ability to get a new subscriber using that same radio is very attractive to us and that will be a very significant after-market channel for us in the future but not short-term.
eh, ok, so you're probably right Tyler . . . no pony for my birthday . . but a kid can dream can't he?
s-Kill,agree but as Tyler says,penetration and new in those luxury models are few and far between,plus remember the clientele that buy CPO luxury cars are repeat buyers every 3 years and probably have SXM already,so not a new sub..just transferring radio's in newer cars..Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill
Exactly,not short term but it is important they realized this and as penetration goes up smartly in new OEM we will see substantial increase in SAC less new sub adds...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill
P.S. this will also phase out a new customer having to go to an audio shop and paying $300 to $500to having SXM installed in their car,which company gets nothing, is a big hassle to signing up as a customer..
The CPO will become a real contributor in the Fall of 2010 and beyond. It is not a significant factor in 2009. I am not trying to be negative, it is just how the ball currently bounces.Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM
OK, fair enough . . . I've beat this one to death; I'm closing the books on CPO (lol)Quote:
Originally Posted by TSavery
Somebody else start up the next topic . . we got a couple weeks to kill between now and CC
Ok,here is one...
How about with the new GM deal in OEM ,SXM buys out or starts up an On-Star like system for all new cars to help with Stolen cars,hands free phone conected to your cell phone account and Vehicle diagnostics in a monthly report,all for $14.95 per month..I currently have On-Star with my GM trailblazer,and SXM as part of the old GM deal leases bandwidth space on SATS to provide this service.it is also worth a 20% discount on your insurance part of Collision /comprehensive..Many possibilities here to create new revenue streams...
any chance at .42 or .43 again today?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirius Roadkill
Hi everybody,
I've got lots of topics to discuss, unfortunately not Sirius related.
I would get chased off this board. :D
Great article Tyler, wherever you are.
Julie
Hi Julie,Quote:
Originally Posted by julietoo
you can post any topic you want,doesn't have to be SXM related,that is boring right now, until 2QCC that is..!!!:D
So what topics you want to discuss?