I just do not know, is it tomorrow or Tuesday ?
This is if indeed they have to file for BK.
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I just do not know, is it tomorrow or Tuesday ?
This is if indeed they have to file for BK.
If it comes to bankruptcy I would think that Mel would wait until the last possible moment. With the debt being due on Tuesday - perhaps that's when. Although, it's also possible that he makes the 175 mil payment on Tuesday and then continues to try and negotiate with MLB and NFL to see if he can use the escrow funds to pay them out... which would mean it would be March before a filing if necessary.
Charter Communications announced today they will file BK on April 1. They did not pay their last interest payment about a month or so ago. They HAD the cash to do so. They just didn't. There was like a 30 day window or something before the loan went into default. So... to all those who say that SIRI has the cash on hand to pay off the debt. apparently that doesn't mean much. Charter had the cash but chose BK instead. All CHTR shares will be cancelled. What I am wondering.... why would a company not want to file for BK? It seems so easy and the law is lenient... Cancel our shares and the bondholders will be issued new equity in the re-organized company.
would think that, if push comes to shove, they will file but remember that Mel (and the others?) are sizeable shareholders in SIRI as mel Owns 5.5 million shares at a cost basis around 20 million. Since management has a stake in the company they likely have the interests of the stockholders in mind as they are also.
if mel files he can kiss 20 million down the drain, i dont care who you are 20 million is not chump change. I have heard that they can get an automatic 30 day extension, i dont know how true that is but i would assume it is true, with chtr your talking 5 billion a year in revenue with 20 billion in debt. i dont think that is the same situation as siri.
tripping you to visit the mffais site for some sirius confidence
yea i saw the mutual funds are buying this thing up, this is all a big play to shake off the weak and buy it up and make big buck, look what happened with palm.
Trippin,
You are correct. Charter had a much larger debt as compared to SIRI.
Don't put too much stock in the mffais site... Check out the latest listings for Charter...Quote:
Originally Posted by ray
http://www.mffais.com/chtr.html
All this news about filing is all speculation "according to a source close to the company" bullshit.
I believe they have the cash to cover Feb, and may just utilize it without tripping any covenants. 4th quarter is normally cash flow positive friendly to Sirius, but not sure what effect XM had on it. Secondly, the "Best of" plans along with raising prices March 11th which brings in alot of upfront cash because you have to pay for 1 -3 years upfront to upgrade or grandfather in. But did this just get negated by slowdown in OEM production and delivery to dealers ?
Could it be that Mel was not the one that leaked that they were preparing BK documents for the possibility of filing. Could it just be that we already knew this from months ago and it's not new news. Maybe not even a leak, but a news release to start the fear mongering.
Or did Mel have something leaked intentionally to get others to the table to see if he could get an investment or a bid to takeover the common , knowing he could pay the Feb without issue.
Homer broke down the numbers on the Yahoo board:
--------------------
Start with $360 million...
+ Add in FCF from Q4 of about $50 million;
- Now remove $180 million minimum balance needed, per their various indenture agreements;
- Now remove $175 million to repay the February debt;
- Now remove $44 million owed to the NFL in February;
- Now remove $60 million owed to MLB in March;
- Now remove $50 million for accounts payable
= ($99 million)
-----------------------------
Bottom line - it looks like we could be about 100 mil short IF Mel can't convince MLB and NFL to let him use the escrow accounts... Even still, it's gonna be tight. Looks like we're going to need some help.
What about new cash up front from "Best of" and "price increase grandfathering in rates " on family subs ? Couldn't this have added ~ 150 -200M 10% x 2 million subs that may have participated ?Quote:
Originally Posted by winagain35
Didn't Mel say that the loss for 2008 would be $100M less? That's $100M + right? Also, why are we making payments to NFL and MLB? Isn't that what escrow is for? The funds are already there, aren't they?Quote:
Originally Posted by winagain35
If they have to do it, my guess is that they would need to file it tomorrow before the Federal Courts close at the end of the day... because chapter 11 is "protection" using the court to protect you from your creditors.
The debt matures on Sunday, so the principle needs to be repaid on the first business day afterwords, which would be Tuesday. So they would need the protection of the Court before it is due on Tuesday.
Of course I could be wrong, they may be able to file it on Tuesday morning -- and get relief from the Court that day, but I'm not sure about that.
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so there is no way for them to make it without a cash infusion in your opinion?
Quote:
Originally Posted by homer985
Homer - did you forget about what I posted above that could add another 150 -200m in cash to their balance sheet ? Why do you all of a sudden believe they don't have it. I don't know that your #'s are spot on.
Quote:
Originally Posted by doobz26
They missed their last interest payment??? If that is true and BK is on April first, why is the media not all over this???
How likely is everyone seeing BK on a scale of 1-10???
Missed interest payments typically do not lead to default until 30-days after the due date. Payment of the principle is completely different -- and I see nothing in the indenture for the Feb09 bonds that says they get an additional 30 days.
The Sirius indenture does allow for up to 30 days to make the interest payment.
so homer do you see this as an indication that they will default on the feb debt???
That is what I thought. So we will not have to wait the long weekend huh ? This may be a sad weekend for a bunch of dudes.Quote:
Originally Posted by homer985