Head UN scientist (Mojib Latif) on climate change changes prediction to mini ice age.
I shouldn't say I told you so but I will.
Professor Mojib Latif, has updated ONCE AGAIN (went from global warming, to next 10 to 20 years of cooler tempatures) to now 20 to 30 years of cooler tempatures, and calling it a "mini ice age".
http://www.webfrog.co.za/mini-ice-age-30-years
Boy I hope he is right because I am not sure if he knows this or not but the last ice age we went through was called the "Little Ice Age" and that lasted almost 500 years. So I believe he is not trying to convince average common sense people but people like Adumbical and havasucker because you dont use words like "ICE AGE" unless you are using it for effect.
I will also say that there are many (and growing number) of scientist that say it could be much longer, the range is from 70 years to another "little Ice Age". Others still say, that we could see the earth tip into a ice age that last a 100,000 years. The reason is while Professor Mojib Latif is studing the tempatures of the oceans those other scientist are studing the solor cycles and its activity (amount of sun spots). They say that while this is suppose to be one of the most active times of the sun it has not been and that sun spots are much less then even during normal times. The problem with this is after 2012 the sun is expected to start to go into a less active cycle and will reach its low point by 2022 to 2024.
More Bullshit Ideology - As Usual
Hannity cites questionable report that climate experts predicting "mini ice age"
Sean Hannity cited a recent Mail on Sunday article purporting to report on the research of climate scientist Mojib Latif to claim that "several prominent scientists say that we are on the verge of a mini ice age" and commented, "sorry Al [Gore] looks like you may have to put that house boat away for awhile, it's probably going to be too cold to use." But Latif has since challenged the Mail article's use of his research, and at the U.N. climate conference the Mail article references, Latif stated that while temperatures could "cool" temporarily "relative to the present level" due to natural climate variability, there is a clear "long-term warming trend" that is "manmade."
From the January 13 edition of Hannity:
HANNITY: And in tonight's meltdown we bring Al Gore some devastating news, now the vanquished vice president will be alarmed to learn that several prominent scientists say that we are on the verge of a mini ice age. Now their predictions contradict the computer models that are favored by Gore and his gang. Now one of the scientist say that the warming that we've seen over the past several years has "gone into reverse, so winters like this one will become much more likely. Summers will also probably be cooler and all of this may well last two decades or longer." Sorry Al, looks like you may have to put away that house boat for awhile. It's probably going to be too cold to use.
Fact: Latif has since challenged Mail report and other media distortions of his research
Guardian: Latif "challenges Mail on Sunday's use of his research." The Guardian reported on January 11 that Latif "has hit out at misleading newspaper reports that linked his research to claims that the current cold weather undermines the scientific case for manmade global warming" and stated of Latif's research, "Despite clarifications from the scientists at the time, who stressed that the research did not challenge the predicted long-term warming trend, the study was widely misreported as signaling a switch from global warming to global cooling."
Latif predicts "nothing that would constitute a little ice age or an ice age." Appearing on Russia Today on January 11, Latif stated, "I don't think" we will see decades of global cooling, noting, "There are of course natural climate fluctuations which could warm or cool the Earth. However, they ride on top of the long-term warming trend and at best they can offset the warming trend. And so the net result may be a kind of pause of halt of global warming, maybe a slight cooling, but nothing that would constitute a little ice age or an ice age."
Latif: "They just make these things up." Joe Romm of ClimateProgress.org wrote in a January 11 post that Latif stated of media reports on his research, "I don't know what to do. They just make these things up":
Call Dr. Latif up and ask him if accepts the IPCC's finding that, as he put it, most of the warming in the past century was very likely due to human causes. He had me reread the quotes attributed to him a number of times, asking twice, "those are direct quotes?" After I did, he said to me: "I don't know what to do. They just make these things up." I suggested asking reporters to read quotes back to him.
According to Latif, over a short time span, say, two decades, it's hard to determine exactly what fraction of the temperature change is due to what cause, but Latif does not believe nor ever said what the Daily Mail suggests, which is that you can add those periods together and somehow negate the IPCC's finding. His work simply "does not allow one to make any inferences about global warming."
Latif has NOT predicted a cooling trend -- or a "decades-long deep freeze" -- but rather a short-time span where human-caused warming might be partly offset by ocean cycles, staying at current record levels, but then followed by "accelerated" warming where you catch up to the long-term human-caused trend. He does NOT forecast 2 or 3 decades of cooling.
Fact: Latif has stated that it is clear the "long-term warming trend" is "manmade"
U.N. Conference presentation addressed "decadal variability," noting "we all believe that this long-term warming trend ... is manmade." Latif opened his August 31, 2009, presentation at the U.N. World Climate Conference-3 by stating: "What you see here is just the globally averaged temperature during the 20th century. And you can clearly identify the long-term warming trend, and we all believe that this long-term warming trend is anthropogenic in nature, is manmade. However, you see also a lot of fluctuations superimposed on this trend, interannual, as Tim has pointed out, but also decadal scale variations." Latif went on to discuss the "mechanisms" of decadal variability and the potential for predicting climate at the decadal timescale. [U.N. World Climate Conference -- 3, 8/31/09]
Latif chart suggests temperatures are "cooling" in the short term, but that these temperatures are still indicative of a long-term warming trend. Latif's chart shows that "cooling" period follows the hottest decade on record last century.
Latif: "It may well happen that you enter a decade, or maybe even two ... when the temperature cools ... relative to the present level." Latif stated that due to natural climate variability over the decade-long timescale, "it may well happen that you enter a decade, or maybe even two, you know, when the temperature cools, all right, relative to the present level." Latif added: "And then, you know, I know what's going to happen. You know, I will get, you know, millions of phone calls, you know -- 'What's going on?' 'So is global warming disappearing, you know?' 'Have you lied on us, you know?' So, and, therefore, this is the reason why we need to address this decadal prediction issue." [U.N. World Climate Conference -- 3, 8/31/09]
Latif: Media mistakenly think of global warming as "a monotonic process," in which "each year is warmer than the preceding year." During his presentation, Latif stated: "All right, so, first point: Why decadal prediction? Now, people who know me, at least my German colleagues, know that I do a lot of media work, OK. There is almost no day in the year when I'm not called by some media person, OK. And so, they basically think about global warming as a kind of slowly evolving process and a monotonic process, OK -- so each year is warmer than the preceding year." He added: "However, we all know there is variability." [U.N. World Climate Conference -- 3, 8/31/09]
Latif: "[I]f my name was not Mojib Latif, my name would be global warming." Latif stated, "Everybody who knows me is aware of the fact that I am definitely not one of the skeptics, OK. And if my name was not Mojib Latif, my name would be global warming, all right." Latif then stated of decadal variability within the long-term warming trend, "[W]e have to ask the nasty questions ourselves, all right, or some other people will do it." [UN World Climate Conference -- 3, 8/31/09]
Fact: Greater natural variability in shorter-term modeling of climate than in longer-term trend
Latif: "[I]nternal variability" is "dominating uncertainty" on "interannual and decadal timescales." During his presentation, Latif stated, "If we look at the next 100 years, there are different uncertainties, OK. So AR-4, the last IPCC report, basically was the boundary force problem, so, it -- the uncertainty arose mostly from the scenario uncertainty and from the model bias, OK." Latif continued: "However, if you look at short lead times, right, then you see that the internal variability is really the dominating uncertainty in the climate change forecasts or, slash, projections. And especially on interannual and decadal timescales, this is true." Internal variability is defined as "climate variability not forced by external agents."
IPCC Report: "[N]atural climate variability" is larger factor on time scales of less than 50 years. In its Fourth Assessment Report, the IPCC concluded that "[m]ost of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations." The report further noted that "[d]ifficulties remain in reliably simulating and attributing observed temperature changes at smaller scales. On these scales, natural climate variability is relatively larger making it harder to distinguish changes expected due to external forcings." [IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report]
