December Stock Talk

  1. waldo29
    Over the last two days I went ahead and took profits on my SIRI hedge. Only a 25% profit ex-commission. Still short @ avg 4.10 and will remain short. This gives me .04 more room to play with on the upside before I hit my stop on the short. I'll give it a couple of days and possibly put the hedge on again for Feb if we get a retrace back to the 4.10 area.

    HS news soon.
  2. waldo29
    I should add, I am still out of the country, will post as much as I can. will return to the states in mid January.
  3. waldo29
    Still have not put the hedge back on again, I think the news is coming real soon. Check out Dec 18 options, big bets opened on the 4.00 strike. The buyer is betting HS leaves. Obviously there is another side to that buy.

    Hanging with my shorts (4.10 avg) the way they are. 4.02 is your support, lose that and we are looking at 3.96 quick. Lose 3.96 and you are in back in the lower range 3.65/3.66 - 3.95/3.96. For longs you really don't want to lose 3.96 before you hear the HS news. Below that with a negative outcome and we are headed back to 3.65/3.66 unless the company has some PR for new talent to counter.

  4. waldo29

    You'll get a rally after the initial knee jerk reaction. The negative news cycle will win out due to headline downgrades and uncertainty. Facts about how much this will actually impact the company on the top and bottom lines won't matter and time will prove the stories right or wrong. The articles of the FCF/Revenue hits coupled with the LM tracking split to come in the first half will be the narrative until its proven otherwise, just the way it is.

    Positive outcome, we are heading back up and probably break 4.20, but I think we are still capped in the mid 4.20's. where I'd likely put on one last sale (short) to play the tracking stock split first half 2016.

    this is going to be interesting.
  5. waldo29
    Careful with the rally today, debt market is not buying it. High Yield broke through support while the SnP is rallying. They will get back in line to each other in the next few days.
  6. waldo29
    Assuming a red open for the market, good chance we loose 4.02 tomorrow. Not a good position to be in for a negative announcement, also would help a positive announcement be capped @ 4.20-4.24 area.

    Still short @ 4.10 avg with no additional hedge put on.
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