November Stock Talk (SIRI and Other)

Good morning! Picked me a sweet 12 gauge at the gun show this weekend. How goes it Waldo?

SIRI looks like it's going to break the 4.08 level.

Pretty good, a bit worn out. I agree, I think it's going to lose 4.08 either today or tomorrow on a closing basis. I'm glad I got that third (short) sale off. still plan on covering in the high 3.80's unless the market falls apart. with a December rate hike still on the table, it's possible see a repeat of the late summer. If they do raise it will be an issue, but the market has a tendency to talk themselves in to a sell off/ correction.

More travel this week and then a week off before Brazil.

Time to keep an eye on oil again, might be making another run @ 42.50-42.95, if that breaks we we probably will see a 30 handle.

Edit: High Yield is also starting to roll over too. That means funding the new buyback will be more difficult. Not the end of the world, funding it out of FCF only (and strategic use of the revolver) will just mean a slower buyback rate. They will need a new issuance in place for the upcoming capital expenses.

Good morning! Novavax held up nicely after earnings. Stock price took a dip but buyers moved back in to push it up. I will say it again... THEY ARE A PHASE 3 Biotech/Vaccine Company!!! YES!!! Will a large big pharma company buy them out to finish out the phase??? Who knows.

Looks like SIRI broke 4.08 going down to 4.05 but bounced back nicely. Nothing much else to say. Several went short using the indices. Been short the indices for about 8 trading days. Feeling good!

Shorts got a hold of Novavax again. Listen to the CC this morning and it seemed very positive about Phase 3 RSV-F vaccinne. Can you imagine being the only company with an RSV-F vaccine? You know large biotech and big pharma are eyeing them for take over. I sure hope BARDA/PATH keep the funding going.

markets looking a bit weak. it could be some year end selling to help cover taxes, property taxes, harvesting losses, etc. I would have thought this would be a much bigger drop but maybe they are easing into it? I personally haven't harvested any losses yet on my investments. I am tempted to keep them because well they are "investments" for a longer term hold.

LMCA tracking stock split is just the next step in the preparation for the RMT. Since the transaction will take place in the first half of 2016, a RMT is most likely still about 12-18 months out. Odds are, there won't be another 'offer' in the same form as last time around. For the immediate there will likely be an arbitrage play with LMCA (LMCK) and SIRI in the favor of LMCA.

Oil and High Yield are becoming an issue again. Both lost key levels, oil today and high yield yesterday.

Looks like I need to head out of the country a bit earlier than expected. I'll try to post as often as I can as my positions change, but it may be difficult to make that a priority over the next month and a half.

For now, the plan is to unload the hedge in to the announcement.

If he signs, it should be @ a profit of about 50% (or more) on the calls. I'll also make a decision on an additional short sale after things settle down, but that depends on the overall market.

If he does not sign, I should be able to unload the calls at a small loss but I'll be back in the green on the short in the 4.03-4.05 area rather than the 4.10 avg now.

The original plan to cover the short was in the in the high 3.80's. Now, I plan on covering in to the LM tracking stock split. The positioning prior will be a process and not an event. This might create a trading range opportunity over a period of months. We will see.