After “Sirius” Consideration…
I decided to buy more shares of Sirius XM (SIRI) today. Am I concerned about the long-term debt of the company? Of course I am. I had reduced my position considerably, and have given it a lot of thought.
As a person who dedicates most of his free time to following Sirius, the news of satellite radio is my business. One story in particular has been released and re-released for the last several days by several different media outlets. I’m referring to the news story of Howard Stern and the attack on his reach.
I had to ask myself what would qualify this as news. I have studied the way the media has attacked Sirius XM in the past, and I believe the answer in is the new “best of” programming packages. Being a Sirius subscriber myself, I often hear various commercials on Sirius promoting the XM package. It dawned on me that existing XM subscribers are also being offered the Sirius package, which of course means Howard Stern!
There are 10 million XM subscribers out there already. If only 10% sign up, that’s a million more Stern listeners. That’s means more revenue from more advertisers and a return of the King Of All Media. Terrestrial media will want to stand in the way of Howard regaining his top spot! Hence the barrage of negative press targeting Howard. I am expecting a big fourth quarter Howard Stern push. My money’s on Howard!
Having said that, I feel there is a still better reason to own the stock right now. My initial thinking was that Sirius XM was bound to report a less-than stellar quarter, to say the least. Let’s face it; auto sales are down and the credit markets are not being very helpful.
Yet one truth remains. Most of Sirius XM’s subscribers are on longer term prepaid plans. Long enough that is, to get through a short term recession with hardly a blip to their balance sheet. Most are not monthly subscribers. They are annual, semi annual and quarterly. So my thinking is that Q3 may not be as bad as some have projected. Looking forward, the fourth quarter with the new plans, services and radios looks good also. The new navigation systems will likely provide still another cushion on the revenue side, reducing further the effects of slowing auto sales.
Position: Long SIRI
So, the 10% that could sign up will all sign on to the best Sirius package because of Howard. Not the NFL?
Good point Marty. Let’s say 10% sign on for Howard and another 10% for NFL that’s 20% 🙂
Half full never empty 🙂
Who cares why they sign up? I suspect the percentage will be more than 10%, by the way.
Well, it was GOOD to see Sirius UP 18% today….even it was only back to 51 cents!
There was a moment pre-market this morning where Sirius was actually UP 40% to 60 Cents!
Again…still WAY off from it’s pre merger highs…but at this point and in THIS economy, ANY signs of life or a heartbeat is welcome.
Orbitcast is saying how Mel has TWO conferences now this month he will speak at, and how that is a “sign” that Mel has a “BIG” announcement.
Me? As hopeful as I may be, Sirius has conditioned me to be CYNICAL.
So I will reserve my judgement.
But I too noticed the Stern bashing Brandon, and found it oddly desperate. I am glad u picked up on it.
Back in his terrestrial days, WHENEVER his enemies bashed him, THATS when you KNEW he was winning.
I am still holding my same long position. But I MAY add another chunk of cash if I can scrounge some up to either trade with in these lows….or to add to my position, should Sirius take off on GREAT news.
Today’s rally was nice. They say the biggest in history. But we’d have to have 2 more such rallys for the market to get back to where it was in September!!!
So we are far from out of the woods. Sirius is a small boat adrift in a BIG sea right now. But if the timing is right. If the market can continue this upward trend…AND Mel comes out with some boffo news….
Well….then the tide could FINALLY be turning for our little ship.
God I hope so.
Brandon welcome back but this is a reason why most have kept their shares. B of Both, mostly XM subs picking up Sirius content, Nascar, Howard, NFL…. Ten percent is low for an estimate but even that brings in $48 M per year plus prepaid resets of subscriptions. Fifty percent brings in and additional $240 M per year. Thats only figuring on XM subs moving to Best of Sirius, the Sirius Subs will also move towards XM but there isn’t as much draw.
Brandon –
The extra revenue from the “best of Sirius” is good to see and projecting 10% of XM’ers converting for Stern or other is nice and same may be true for the Sirius 10% getting “best of XM”, but my concern is that this will be offset by people with let’s say 3 receivers will say, I’ll keep 2 and get the best of.
I think you will see alot of this in the 4th quarter.
3rd quarter is likely worse than anticipated because of the hault in auto sales and production because of the credit crisis.
Time will tell what is priced in stock or not.
I’m not getting excited, because when it comes to this stock, I’ve learned not to expect ANYTHING….but when I see “negative” articles now…I think perhaps the tide is turning.
Motley Fool just released an article titled, “5 REASONS WHY SIRIUSXM IS AT 43 CENTS.”
First of all, it’s at 52 CENTS….Excuuuuuuuse me!
Lol. Second of all…us Sirius longs are so battle tested and have such thick skins, that such articles don’t bother me anymore. And at this price, they just smack of desperation to TRY to KEEP it down.
I’m secretly hoping that Mel MASSIVELY UPOD’ed this thing and that the 4th if not 3rd Q surprises EVERYONE.
Then again, I am resigned to hold my current shares for as long as it takes. Either it goes to zero(which I don’t believe) or it’s going back up eventually.
Nothing at this point written by the likes of Motley Fool is going to shake my shares out of me.
Glad to see a positive additude today, I have been long for over 3 years and still hold 10,000 shares. I see a great 4Th quarter coming and have suggested to all my friend to buy and buy now. 1 year from now we will all be laughing at this silly price and wonder why we didn’t buy more…Mel has made me money over the years and he will make all of us more…Beleive in Mel as I do !!!
i hear u 201k…but if this stock manages to double in a years time, then that would be great.
But I can think of a dozen safer stocks who are sure to double by January.
ALot of people have been battered by this stock.
I too feel positive about it’s future…but I have also NEVER experienced such pain with a stock before. EVER.
It is for THAT reason alone I could NEVER tell ANY of my friends to invest in Sirius. Lol.
I’m serious. I’m hopeful about sirius. I TRULY believe it can rebound.
BUT….I have felt that way SO many times before only to be BITCH SLAPPED.
So, I will keep my enthusiasm when it comes to myself….and to this board of course. 🙂
Friggin,
I’m down a ridiculous amount of $ and tried to dip my toes in at .60 cents just for a little profit and run and got my butt kicked to .48.
Now didn’t catch the .37 bottom the other day and afraid to get taken to teh cleaners again by getting in after rebound to .51.
Watch, now it keeps going up and I’m left behind the one time I want to be cautious with this mess of a stock.
I am realy sick and tired of hearing about the debt issue. The debt has ALWAYS been there. It was there before the merger, before the proposed merger and it will always be there. The issue is manipulation. Find out who is manipulating the stock and it will stop.
Brandon wrote: “Am I concerned about the long-term debt of the company? Of course I am.”, did he forget he penned an article titled “Sirius XM debt is a non-issue.” and argued his point adamantly. Another article wrote by Brandon was titled, “Sirius XM trades above its book value.” Brandon is all over the map here… hard to believe anything he writes anymore.
there were so many 100 unit trades after hours today…shorts must be loading up gain…sorry to predict but watch the downslide again as they minipulate again..they sucked more in today with the .08 pop.
And why do I come back to read this drivel time and again? How long did it take you to realize all this, Brandon????
SEND AN EMAIL TO THEM TOO….
Thank you for your email below in which you expressed concerns about naked short selling and reinstating the uptick rule. We are aware of significant concerns on the part of many individuals and entities about these issues and we appreciate your bringing this information to our attention.
The Office of Inspector General (OIG) has an ongoing audit into the SEC Division of Enforcement’s process for responding to complaints and referrals, including those pertaining to naked short selling. Please be advised, however, that the OIG has limited jurisdiction and lacks authority to reinstate the uptick rule or to directly enforce against naked short selling. Therefore, we have forwarded your email to both the SEC’s Division of Enforcement and Office of Investor Education and Assistance for their review. You may also contact those offices directly at [email protected] and [email protected].
Sincerely,
Natasha Dandridge
Legal Assistant
On behalf of the Office of Inspector General
of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission