Will Sirius XM Get to the Teens?
A stock price that was beyond comprehension only three months ago is now edging ever closer to actually happening. As of this writing, Sirius XM Radio is in danger of dipping into the teens. This will place the equity at a new all time low, as well as bring it further away from the $1 Billion market cap that would allow the company to access a $100 million credit facility through Loral.
The company has expressed that they are active in trying to negotiate financing for the $200 million due in February of 2009, but as yet there has been no indication that acceptable terms have been reached. The debt issue and frozen credit markets have taken their toll on many companies, and Sirius XM have not been immune.
While company guidance remains that profits are around the corner, the street perception makes any such projections difficult to believe. Negative headline after headline mire the entire investment community, and at this point a recession seems to be a self fulfilling prophecy. The economy is confused, and retailers are so worried that they are initiating Black Friday sales a week and a half early in hopes of prying money from consumers who seem more apt to hold onto their dollars.
With this being only Tuesday, we could be in for a rough week, and at this point, unless there is positive news to reverse the trend, a visit to the teens seems more and more likely. At that point, people will begin to wonder whether you can get a share for one dime!
Position: Long SIRI.
Hey, btw Tyler . . . that 2002-S Ultra Cameo Proof Dime depicted in the photo above would buy about 150 shares of Sirius XM stock based on today’s close price of $0.20. Yup, that dime is worth about 30 bucks . . . or you could hold that dime til share price hits $0.15 and nail yourself down 200 shares.
On second thought . . . maybe ya better just hold on to that dime.
Hope and Roadkill.
High LOL’s!!!
I’m a little rusty on the algebra socal (all that canceling-out stuff is so confusing). . . but here goes, based on today’s close price of $0.20:
R/S + Dilution = SV/50 X $10.00 X (DC)0.5625 X (1-SIC)
where: SV = Shareholder Value, DC = the Dilution Constant (4.5bn/8bn) and SIC = the Short Interest Constant
ok, how’d I do? did I pass?
Roadkill.
Your killing me here.
OK. Let me see. Your saying that the 50:1 must be then multiplied by the
RS = 50:1 x ID x FSIC = CP=.20. AE. CSNV = .12 – Projected FSIC = .01.
RS= Reverse Split, ID= Implied Dilution, FSIC= Future Short Interest Constant, CP= Current Price, AE = After equation, CSNV= Current share New Value
So we all now realize that Mel is going to do the RS which then does the same to the newly issued shares.
And then he plans to sell ASAP after the RS the new diluted shares to maintain his salaries. The salaries of management.
And of course any bonus due them.
No you say. Hmmmmmmmmmmm. Seen any announcement to the contrary.
Oh my. It’s not Mel’s fault. It’s mine cause I trusted him. Beautiful.
sorry socal . . . I’m killin myself after reading that Blodget article S-Hope just posted . . . hey S-hope, where’d ya find that?
but back to the math … assume that after the r/s and dilution the short interest has a downward 20% influence on share price . . . then plug-in your numbers … lets say someone owns 10,000 shares today at $0.20:
10,000/50 X (0.20 X 50) X .5625 X (1-0.20) = $900
bada-bing-bada-boom
Roadkill.
It’s a very likely scenario.
You know what kills me. We are trading at .20, and people are worried about content.
Then there are those that keep saying that we negative posters are harming the company?
WTF. Over.
Roadkill. Honestly let me ask you something I ask myself everyday.
Would you have ever bought any share of any stock in the .20 range, ever ever ever in your entire life???????????????
Even knew the names of them???????????
Socalrunningfool Says:
So we all now realize that Mel is going to do the RS which then does the same to the newly issued shares.
And then he plans to sell ASAP after the RS the new diluted shares to maintain his salaries. The salaries of management.
And of course any bonus due them.
plus socal . . . don’t forget the stock options
boy-oh-boy. what a disaster.
Lets hope the “banks” that are in due diligence are the ones requiring “authorization for the r/s” in-hand before signing a loan commitment for a senior secured note for say, 50% of the $210mm with the other $105mm from cash on hand.
Hypothetically, what would happen if the R/S vote were defeated but the 4mm new shares vote was approved and the stock price naturally went above $1.00 after taking-out the feb converts?
socal . . . wouldn’t even know the name of a $0.20 stock. that’s where the Cramer “do your homework” routine is such a joke . . .
the game is totally rigged. period. ya just have to hope you are on the right side of the bet; it looks as though we are not. the retail investor has no shot
the experience really does make you wonder about the safety of your 401k
To be honest they would have to be ecstatic to have the share price over $1 and still holding the 4mil new shares.
If they go BK, do the talk show people etc., get their regular paycheck.
Do they still show up for work.
And people are worried about content.
It’s true. With our market cap, no way anyone loans us money.
And hey Roadkill. You really do have to believe that the RS and dilution get passed and Mel does the RS and then floats the shares and your bing bada boom bada bing.
On a serious note. Honestly it’s guys like Tyler and Charles that in my opinion, have stood up for this product for years, that deserve better.
And Tyler as a shareholder deserves better. As do all long term shareholders.
Pathetic is what it is. Mel could easily do more. But hey it’s the best management around.
See Roadkill I knew you would say that.
I could not list one stock anywhere in the world at .20. Nor would I have wanted to own one.
The irony is completely and totally unbelievable.
Roadkill. Do you see the talk show hosts. I mean we bought a company with incredible talent.
WTF went wrong. Man did this company take it in the ass or what.
And I agree about 401k’s. Currently the S&P is close to the same as it was 10 years ago. 10 years ago.
And the Nasdaq. Well won’t even go there.
But hey the ceo of GS just said he’s not taking the 200 million this year. lol.
I doubt there will be any announcement about Feb converts prior to the 12/18 BOD meeting . . . so again, we are stuck in a “silent” period
the next couple weeks may be very tough on share price
but I will end on a positive night … for what it’s worth to the technocrats, at least we did NOT close below $0.20; consider it the first retest I suppose
SRK..SoCalRun…
You guys are funny.
This company and the shareholders are so over due for some kind of break.
I agree we are in the silent period until after the vote.Which will be approved.
Mel stated the only way he will do the RS is for listing. Lets assume that is true and go back to SRK’s statement about the vote shares approved and the RS was not.
Then the Feb note is addressed. I think if that note is addressed the stock will rise, but I think we need Feb and May at this point to get back over $1.00. We are running out of time. May is around the corner> If Feb is addressed we will be talking about May in Jan and Feb just like we are talking about Feb now
So will analysts and investors.
Sirius needs to get ahead of the curve and address Feb and May now. The stock will take off if that happens.
Sirius really needs to lead at this point in time. The stock price will follow up.Investors will have more confidence in the stock, we will pull some speculators in at these bargin prices. But Sirius mangement are the only ones that can pull this off.
imho
vaporgold
Vapor..your right on point…but we are running out of time…the pps today trading as low as .163 and by the time of the meeting how low we can go is pathetic. IMO it may be less than .10
WTF.. 0.17 Wienkes is missing credit to revise his price target to 10 cents.
I had a dream last night the stock shot to $8 in one night and I felt soo happy. I was probably unaware in my dream that it was the result of a 50:1 Reverse.
The topic of this article dated 11/18 is will siri get to the teens?…the question now is when will it get to the single digits?
thanks s-hope! got it.
Hey vapor . . . I’m just thinking, at this rate of decline, a 50:1 R/S might not even cut the mustard . . . how ironic would that be?
We are now officially hanging-on to the ledge by our fingernails . . . the equity itself has become completely toxic . . . a black widow spider . . . a black-hole which is slowy collapsing inward on itself and will likely evaporate into the ether.
I am starting to think that our fate has been cast and there is almost nothing management can do at this point. Even capitulation will not help.
The damage is done and it does not appear that Mel et al will be able to squeeze the evil genie back into the bottle . . . poor Mel, his children’s children’s children’s children may be forced to drive an Aston Martin instead of a Rolls.
Just for the record . . . you would now need to sell 3 shares of stock just to buy a basic 50 cent lottery ticket
I remember how mad I was when Erin Burnett of CNBC cut to a commercial with the “tease line” of “will Sirius Xm go to zero?” That was right after the merger when the stock was still closer to $1.50. Who’d a thunk?
Seems that all the “averaging-down” has amounted to little more than “throwing good money after bad”
For those supporting the R/S – Get used to what we are experiencing – a slow bleed-out of our share worth.
SRK..
This is just unbelievable. All the news people are jumping on the bandwagon to see it go to nothing.
What they don’t realize is that besides the debt, the operating is pretty sound.Even if we have ony 8% growth next year, that is great growth for most companies. Double digit, is awesome.
But if they want to destroy a company they just need to keep doing what they are doing.
I don’t know at this point if we can count on Mel to do anything, but if he has anything close to being worked out with the Feb and May, he needs to close that deal now.
Maybe Mel wanted the BK all along, get us out of the way, and the debt, and start fresh with new investors.
His bonuses will be even better with the new company, so he will not be hurt at all. he can take the loss of his shares.
I guess he should have walked away from the merger because it was not in the best interest of his stockholders. The ugly loan was really too ugly.
Who knows anymore???? makes me sick
vaporgold
They need to stop fighting over the loans to the the big three and get those in place.
BIG BIG mistake making a political football out of this.
imho
vaporgold