Will Sirius XM Get to the Teens?
A stock price that was beyond comprehension only three months ago is now edging ever closer to actually happening. As of this writing, Sirius XM Radio is in danger of dipping into the teens. This will place the equity at a new all time low, as well as bring it further away from the $1 Billion market cap that would allow the company to access a $100 million credit facility through Loral.
The company has expressed that they are active in trying to negotiate financing for the $200 million due in February of 2009, but as yet there has been no indication that acceptable terms have been reached. The debt issue and frozen credit markets have taken their toll on many companies, and Sirius XM have not been immune.
While company guidance remains that profits are around the corner, the street perception makes any such projections difficult to believe. Negative headline after headline mire the entire investment community, and at this point a recession seems to be a self fulfilling prophecy. The economy is confused, and retailers are so worried that they are initiating Black Friday sales a week and a half early in hopes of prying money from consumers who seem more apt to hold onto their dollars.
With this being only Tuesday, we could be in for a rough week, and at this point, unless there is positive news to reverse the trend, a visit to the teens seems more and more likely. At that point, people will begin to wonder whether you can get a share for one dime!
Position: Long SIRI.
Mel is on very dangerous ground right now . . . walking a tight-rope without a net until 12/18. No way on gods green earth that any bank worth its salt loans the Feb money without authorization for the R/S in-hand.
Old Mel is on the last turn of the 440 trying to sprint to the December Board meeting but rigormortis has set in . . . the share price will probably be way too low (market cap) by the time he gets there and the banks will run in the other direction, TARP money earmarked for dividend payments (read BB&T; nice work Paulson)
That leaves three alternatives, cash-on-hand, new converts or some combination thereof. That’s it. Nothing more.
Of course Mel could loan some of his own money (”would I loan the company my own money? Lets hope it doesn’t come to that.”)
It’s probably all Tyler Savery’s fault anyway for his objective articles, couldn’t be mangement actions, right? I mean, afterall, the Janco analyst did say that the recent downgrade was due in part to the inconsistent actions of Tyler Savery (lol).
(sorry Tyler . . . sometimes extreme sarcasm is needed to drill home the point)
Don’t mind the bashers Mel . . . you’re doing a fantastik job. Just super. Who could complain with a 17.5 cent share price
Reminds me of the great job Bob Brennan did with International Thoroughbred Breeders Association (ITB) . . . remember that one Mel? That was when Bob still flew around town in his helicopter and owned Due Process Farms.
Tyler . . . we need a new article. How ’bout an interview with Mookie Blaylock, er-ah, I mean Paul Blaylock (might just as well be Mookie Blaylock; couldn’t be any worse)
Lets hear what one of the brain-trusts has to say
Well my last post was censored.
A work of art to. Imho.
So .16. Honestly never thought I’d see the day.
Do we follow the car company stocks? I have no idea.
Does Paulson have any idea what he’s doing.
GS new 52 week low.
We hit all time low.
It’s crazy. And people are worried about content.
I’m stuck on saying anything about it. .16.
I swear Mel said the merger would be a good thing for investors.
Guess it was a different Mel.
Friggen Regan better now check the stock quotes.
Socalrun..
I hear you, I wonder if we will make it to the stockholders meeting at this rate without being at a couple cents.
FR would have to be sedated at this point.
Do you know if we will be able to listen to that meeting live?..Mel needs to answer some questions that start with
WHY
imho
vaporgold
Vapor. See Geronimos post under the article written regarding ad revenue.
Sums it up for me.
Are there plants among us. Cause, somehow somewhere the fish smell has completely consumed me.
Do people comprehend .16. I mean. Do they understand that we are .16 away from zero market cap, and the company still has 3 billion in debt?
Do they get that a Reverse Split of zero = zero???????
Are you mouthing the word “conspiracy”. Under BK, the courts sort it out.
A conspiracy would be to sell it to a saving party,just……………..before BK.
Capiche?
I just don’t see how bankruptcy can be avoided. This sort of drop becomes a death spiral at a certain point, when panic takes over.
BK avoided……………….
Being unable to use share dilution any longer.
With no means to secure a loan.
It would take an investor to come along with cash and take us over.
Thus would end the conspiracy theory.
Mel has completely misplayed this since the day the merger was announced.
GUYS…I am in F@%#&*G shock tonite. i was gone all day and did not find out we are at .16 til i got home tonite. I can’t add anymore than what has been posted today by others. What can we do but hope we rise from this F%$#@^&G mess of shit. My $11k investement is worth a paltry $1798.20 tonight. How pathetic is that?
Hope.
My 90k dollar investment this year at an average of 3 bucks.
Was worth 4k dollars when I sold it all at the open yesterday.
Had I kept it. It would be worth 2,800 bucks at this typing.
And so it goes. Hey I sold out at .53 a few weeks ago and was smart enough to buy back in, in the .30’s.
SiriusHope,SoCalRun, SRK..
I lost a lot also.
What can you say at this point?
What will the stockholders meeting be like if the pps is at .01 or .02???
vaporgold
These low lifes who have royally screwed up this company… this technology, have to go down in the books as some of the most heartless, guttless and spineless bafoons…. EVER !!! I don’t think any of them, including Karmazin, give a damn about the subscribers or the shareholders, who have been devastated. Our boy Mel, if he had any balls, would pull out that big, fat wallet ofd his and pay the Feb. debt pronto. He isn’t fooling anybody, and I really believe that he has thrown in the towel and is concerned about his own ass at this point. Stern refuses to promote the service, while hauling down an obscene $100,000,000 per. The customer service is a joke, and totally useless.
The stock price is a reflection of invester confidence to a large extent. Management has done nothing positive, excepy postively pissing off the subscribers at the worst possibe time. It is like they have a death wish, and can’t wait for the sick patient to take their last gasping breath! Just when we need some CPR, they are busy holding a pillow over our mouths. Despicable bastards – every last one of them!
Steve..
No one could say it better than you have. Thanks for your honesty about the BASTARDS!!!
Socal
I coulda,shoulda but didn’t sell at 1.20 but i can’t look back. just hope my avg of .97 can be reached (if we dont bk) by end of 2009. There is hope for the hopeful. Good Night time to bury my head in my pillow and sleep this stupor off. Maybe tomorrow we can go to .20 and trend upward a penny a day.
Hey Vapor.
Do they still have shareholder meetings at .01??
What does the bid ask look like?
.00001 ask .00002 ??
Just wondering. I keep wondering if these guys on CNBC shows understand that this depression they have created will cost them their jobs.
GE is done. They will layoff. Investors have all gone to cash with whatever they have left.
I liquidated two mutual funds earlier this week.
So CNBC and Bloomberg who sensationalize everything.
And help create the housing bubble and the stock market crashes, will no longer be getting advertising or viewers.
As the next generation of people, will all be savers of money, not investors.
Seen the price of a T-Bill today. All time low I believe.
Everyone is done with the system. It will take years to get people back into the markets.
Oh and Vapor. Since Obama won election S&P down 20%.
Can you imagine the media negativity if that happened to a Republican.
Nice post Steve.
SiriusHope,
Thank’s. Just saying what I feel. I read your post; I feel your pain. I am into this more than you are, amount wise. I got in at 6.50, and have been averaging down for almost 3 years! I’m down over 18,000.00, and I am one bitter mother fucker. I had never played the stock market in my life, and I got caught up in all the hype and excitement 3 years ago. I love the product, but I loath these people who have wrecked havoc on such a great technology.
What really floors me is that they totally ignore the suggestions and terrific advice that subscribers provide for free on these blogs. What a bunch of asses. I was told early on by several people that Mel had the golden touch, and that if he was involved in this venture it would be a good investment. I will be more careful about soliciting peoples opinions in the future.
Regardless, I wish you and all the other investers and subscribers the best of luck. Not that we have had any; at this point it looks like we need a miracle!
Steve..
I woke up this morning with crossed eyes, fingers and legs in hope for that miracle you know we need. I feel your pain as well for the amount you are at a loss for thusfar.
Lets all keep smiling though.
Have a better day and be hopeful the pps rises today.
SoCalRun SRK
Mel did have the touch. when he took over everything he said he would do he did. He hit the numbers quarter after quarter. Took the retail market like a banshee and was increasing OEM’s. pentrations.
He had XM staggering.They were in deep trouble.
Why would we not increase our holdings or buy down? the company was moving in the right direction finally.
Then the merger. Then Dr. Jekyle Mr. Hyde showed up.
He should have walked away from the merger, CEO’s do it all the time because it is not in the best interest of the stockholders.
The loan from Hell for the merger.
The statements Mel made after that from out of my own pocket to taking the company private.We are on track with our numbers, 12 days later we are not on track with our numbers WTF?
It was like he was a compeletly different person, or an agenda had changed. Wipe out the current investors and start over? Who the —-knows??
A lot of were saying WTF is going on now??
SoCalRun..you said it, we will be the last to know anything. The street will know if the loans cannot be made, but we are not on that street or even in the same city.That word may be out now and that is part of the reason for the drop.Mel may not of ever had any intentions of obtaining loans, but service the loans with share issues like they stated on the 10Q.
It is a great product, I use it every day, to see this happening is beyond belief.
You said it how do you RS pennnies or zero?
Was his intention to wipe out the stockholders value so the company can be bought out or taken private?
imho
vaporgold
Vapor ..your so right..MEL is the most greediest bastard and could not walk away from the merger because he wanted to be a bigshot at the expense of US THE SHAREHOLDERS.
SH..
If it was not in the best interest of the stcokholders, he had an obligation to walk.
Ego might have been part of it..who knows
vaporgold
Vapor/Hope
I agree. All seemed on track until the merger. At which point we met a different Mel.
Hope looks like the reality bashers are after you on the new thread.
Gotta love a poster who is bashing anyone who points out reality of .14.
How do you defend .14?
Unbelievable. Bash someone who points out it’s .14.
Soon we will be legally able to drive.
Vapor. I like your perspective and appreciate you posts.
It looks like the SEC is going to let the hedge funds short the world into depression.
Citi asked for the uptick rule to be instated today and for shorting to be stopped.
But no response.
What a clusterfuck.
Reality is, my job is dependent on companies being able to get funding on their projects.
So Hope, keep that spare bedroom available in Vegas. LOL.