Wienkes Waltzes Into The Sunset
In news that will likely be welcomed by long investors in Sirius XM radio, Mark Wienkes of Goldman Sachs is terminating coverage of the sole satellite radio player. Wienkes is continuing employment at Goldman, but the firm announced today, “We are terminating coverage on the following companies: Entercom Communications (ETM), Entravision Communications (EVC), and Sirius XM Radio
(SIRI). This is our final report on these companies.”
Wienkes may well be known as the satellite radio analyst who was right for all of the wrong reasons. While his price targets came to fruition, his models were a stark difference in many instances from actual numbers reported by the company. The fact of the matter is that a negative report and lower price target could have been issued on virtually any company over the past 6 months and come to fruition.
Investors and Mongo alike may have a reason to keep their chin up today, as Wienkes has been vocally critical of the company, and seemed to have the uncanny ability to issue his reports at the most inopportune times.
Goldman Sachs did disclose the following, specific to Sirius XM:
- Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: Entercom Communications Corp. ($0.96), Entravision Communications Corp. ($0.62) and Sirius XM Radio Inc. ($0.17)
- Goldman Sachs had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Entravision Communications Corp. ($0.62) and Sirius XM Radio Inc. ($0.17)
- Goldman Sachs makes a market in the securities or derivatives thereof: Sirius XM Radio Inc. ($0.17)
Position: Long Sirius XM
What can you say. He was right alot more than he was ever wrong. I hated to see him mention the company but he hit the nail on the head every single time. Im sure there are reasons for that and i wont get into my opinions on it. Finally it looks like mr Wienkes wont be kicking our dog anymore.
It is one thing to hit a price target, but another thing altogether to have so many metrics in your model be wrong.
An analysts model is a big part in how they arrive at a prioce target.
The declining stock price is something that happened across the board.
To measure how right someone is you need to look at how they arrived at their opinion.
Years ago there were those that said, “Jacoby was right on Sirius”. What they failed to account for was that jacoby esablished a sell on Sirius based on his opinion that SIRI should trade at a specific discount to XM. At that time, he had a buy on XM at $27. Siri went down, but so doid XM. Jacoby was flawed in his approach. The targets he had were hit, but his reasoning for establishing those targets was a huge miss.
Wienkes had some metrics in his model that were substantially off in my opinion. The question is how his opinion on price would have changed if his model were closer to what actually happened.
Goldman can’t bash anymore now that they are going long. A month from now they will be pumping.
Damn Tyler . . . you are on your game today!!!!
Exactly right . . . both in your article and in your reply.
I will go one step further than you . . . WIENKIES WAS BACKING-INTO HIS PRICE TARGETS (sorry to shout but sometimes I feel like no one is listening). It is not possible to hit the targets as he did with corrupted data entry.
His price targets were purely a function of internal infromation available to him about the anticipated market activities of his employer/bond holders. That’s it. Period, the end. Wrong metrics = right price target = manipulation.
Lets not mince words with this guy. Good riddance!
Wienkies is a pawn who has served his purpose. He is all used-up on this equity and now Lloyd Blankfine will sic him on somebody else. (the SEC is a feckless joke)
I am taking this as a sign that GS is now done with manipulating Sirius to the downside. It will be intersting to watch the equity price from here.
Hopefully, management is not pursuing issuance of replacement bonds to Goldman Sachs nor are they conducting extensive investment banking business with this firm.
“Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months:…..and Sirius XM Radio Inc. ($0.17) ”
Can this mean anything else but a refi?
HURRAH the blowhard pawn is gone and GS stock is losing ground as they lose billions. Hope they get shorted by the manipulators now.
Jon,
Standard disclosure. They are in the investment banking business. They may not end up with the deal, but they will certainly try
now if we can get the talikng heads on CNBC to shut their phucking mouths about the grim market that will help to. They get paid to bash.
Quote of the century on SIRI, Wienkes and GS:
“Wrong metrics = right price target = manipulation.” Hopefully, the manipulation of SIRI by GS and its cronies is done for good.
Also, GS’ note of continued interest in its relationship with Sirius and recent stock accumulation of SIRI by GS are indicative of a complete U turn for the direction of the stock price, soon.
TYLER:
BEST DAMN NEWS THIS YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!
Thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Finally that fucker is gone
R-O-L-A-I-D-S Now that spells relief!!!
Nice. GS should have just fired him.
Duff…
You could be right on the money. GS may be going long. I would go along with your call on this one.
Tyler…Good stuff, you are on a run.
SCRF…Wienkes gone…Jacoby gone..That is about the only good news we have had in the past year
vaporgold
VG.
Very True.
Maybe……..it’s finally our turn.
Guys we said the same thing about the guy from BOA, waiting to see who pops up next
Jessica Cohen will be the new hatchet. BAC has a gun to her head.
GS-mission accomplished. They successfully destroyed SiriusXM. Now they move on to their next target.
GS already has a banking relationship with Sirius Xm. They own 127M in Convertible 2-1/2% Bonds due in February 09. Good riddance to Weinkes….
Sirius Roadkill: IMO you have this exactly correct. My sentiments exactly.
Hey Pinball Wizard . . . if you’re still there . . . are you an “EM” or an “SS” guy?
I’m an old time “EM” guy but enjoy quite a few of the early vintage (’78-’80) “SS” versions . . .
>>It is one thing to hit a price target, but another thing altogether to have so many metrics in your model be wrong.
An analysts model is a big part in how they arrive at a prioce target.
The declining stock price is something that happened across the board.
To measure how right someone is you need to look at how they arrived at their opinion.<<
This is the Bagholderz™ Syndrome. You believe you were right, (cause it’s easier to try and explain your losses to your spouse that way), and the market got it Wrong. Hence, you losses are not your fault. They are someone else’s fault because they, and the market, didn’t understand YOUR analysis.
In the Stock Market.. You measure how right someone is by the accuracy of their predictions and analysis as it pertains to the PPS. PERIOD
That’s all that matters.. Just ask your spouse!!
Sure you may attempt to heal your bruised ego by claiming that you had it right, and everyone else was WRONG. Believe me. When you tell your spouse that they will have to work another 10 years because you were WRONGED for all the WRONG Reasons, and it wasn’t really YOUR FAULT. They will have a hard time understanding.
Satellite Communications investments generally require huge upfront Capital Investments and associated debt. Extremely long lead times to market, and expensive subscriber equipment.
Your chances of making money on Satellite Communications Investments are probably worse than playing Lotto! So many have come before SiriusXM and so many have gone BK. It truly has to be one of the worst “risk/reward ratio” bets in the market.
Technology evolves too quickly to wait for the Long Lead times required with the launch of Satellite Communications systems.
By the time you get funded, regulatory approvals, design review, manufacturing, and launch. Technology simply passes you by.
The same thing happened with Satellite Telephony.. The market was huge and international roaming was non-existent for the most part. But, 9 years later. Satellite Telephony had come to market. Only to find that the market they were after had largely disappeared. Large scale buildout of Terrestrial Wireless systems along with low cost transparent international roaming killed Satellite Telephony in it’s tracks. BILLIONS of investors dollars up in smoke.
When SDARS was first proposed. Memory was small, slow, power hungry and expensive. Audio Compression technology were nascent. But, technology did not stand still waiting for SDARS.
As a matter of fact.. The same technology advances actually aided the financial downfall of SDARS. When SDARS was first envisioned. It was seen as only being able host approx. 15 channels to each licensee. By the time the Hardware actually was launched, the compression technology had advanced to the point that there was suddenly 100’s of channel capacity available to be filled. The two competitors spent BILLIONS of additional capital attempting to fill the void created by the advancing technology.
These technology innovations (IPOD) Killed the SDARS star. Sure you have some amount of zealots that find the overall concept as appealing. But for the mainstream. They just don’t get it, and never will.
In the mean time.. Technology continues forward. Memory gets larger and faster and cheaper. Someday. You will have a Slacker/IPOD device with 10’s or even hundreds of Terabytes of storage. You device will hold almost every imaginable sound recording without the need to stream the data. The only data you will require will be a small playlist database file.
And so it goes,
PCSTEL
With recent information being released by Mel and his staff, I feel that when this economy turns around they are getting very well positioned. I have a feeling we are going to see the stock starting to fluctuate again. But now more to to upside than the fluctuations of the past which we saw to the downside. I think it is a buying opportunity for either short or the long term. It will start with the auto bailout annoucement and pick up steam when they annouce their refinancing package.