Wienkes Hobbles Sirius XM
It seems that whenever something good starts to happen for Sirius XM Radio, that Goldman Sach’s analyst Mark Wienkes is there to cast doubt on the situation, and in essence, hobble the equity. After trading well yesterday, Wienkes took yet another shot at Sirius XM, that at this point reminds of a classic movie scene from Misery.
For those that for some reason may not have seen the movie, the premise is that author Paul Sheldon (played by James Caan), is “rescued” from an accident by Annie who turns out to be a crazed fan (played by Kathy Bates). After bringing Sheldon back to health, Annie will not let him go, and stops at nothing to limit the progress of his health. Every time Sheldon appears to be gaining strength, Annie does something to break his will. At one point she even “hobbles” Sheldon by breaking his ankles in a manner that can only be described as gruesome. The video is not for the feint of heart, but then again, neither is the current stock price of Sirius XM Radio.
In his latest report, Wienkes moved his price target down to .25 cents, and lowered subscriber as well as revenue estimates for the company. Wienkes still sees the debt refinancing as a major issue.
Is Wienkes hobbling Sirius XM? For many it certainly seems to be the case. The timing of reports issued by the analyst has more than a few people wondering if there is some sort of agenda. Each investor will have to arrive at their own conclusion, but there is little doubt that the latest report issued by Wienkes has had an impact on the stock price.
There is a thread in the SIRIUSBUZZ forums about the new Sirius 424 filing here…
http://siriusbuzz.com/forum/sh......php?t=956
Form 424B5
Prospectus Filed Pursuant to Rule 424
Filed Oct 28, 2008
I believe this is just the registration of the shares for the convertible bond that was part of the “ugly financing” Mel was forced into after the merger. It will only be dilutive if we hit the conversion price of $1.87. We’re a ways off of that still. In other words, it’s paperwork left over from the merger… no big deal.
Egiscodr –
I agree as they scared the hell out of me and the world last week with the limits and making everyone think that the market would be down over 1000 points in the a.m.
SHope – I think it is more dilution, but don’t believe it has to do with paying off the Feb converts.
trading at .355 – .36 right now, so not really affecting things yet.
i did the same thing, sold 5800 shares at 34 cents hoping it will drop in the twenties.
Yikes. I don’t think I’ve EVER seen Brandon lose his shit like this before.
It MUST be a sign of the apocalypse.
I’m serious. I think I’m revisiting my decision to sell again.
But if I DO hold on….I STILL STRONGLY disagree with Brandon about the RS.
As long as I hold my old shares I will be AGAINST such a move until my dying breath.
But I have a BIG decision to make. If I sell now, I will be able to salvage just shy of $4,000.
Just saying that number KNOWING I’ve sunk about 30 grand into this stock still feels like a punch to the gut.
HOWEVER….if this 1 for 50 reverse split that Brandon wants so bad HAPPENS and I am STILL holding my original shares….I suddenly will have only 200 shares compared to the 10,000 I now own.
I would FULLY expect the shorts to then RIP the inflated RS price to pieces. Aided by the likes of Weinkes, GS and the other bashers…the $12 stock price would be knocked down to $5 and then back to a $1 before you could say “STOCK MANIPULATION!”
The $4,000 I could get by selling NOW would look like a small fortune to what I’d be left with.
Brandon is smart. But for the LIFE of me, I don’t understand how ANY LONG such as Brandon who is holding shares would be FOR a 1 for 50 RS!!!!
I mean if you swallow your pride and SELL all your shares now for a HUGE loss….THEN I could understand saying YES to a RS….but NOT while you are holding old shares.
I mean it DOES NOT MAKE SENSE. There is a major contradiction there. Because you KNOW you’ll LOSE 50 times your original shares. And you KNOW the shorts would come in and reduce their value to LESS than it is NOW by a HUGE amount.
WHY would you trade the pain you’re feeling NOW for EVEN MORE pain and anguish that would make the kind we’ve suffered thru seem like paradise compared to it.
Because trust me. As HORRIBLE as the whole merger delay felt. As PAINFUL as the “UGLY” deal Mel struck to close the merger that sold us out to the shorts and bondholders was. And as SICKENING as the drop BELOW a buck felt.
Is NOTHING…and I mean NOTHING compared to how it would feel to VOTE YES for the RS and then WATCH as your shares get reduced by 50 times instantly and then slowly LOSE ALL THEIR VALUE right before your eyes as the shorts come in and strip ALL the meat left on their bones.
WHY if you feel TRAPPED NOW….would you want to feel EVEN MORE TRAPPED by voting YES if you are a long and still holding shares???
It DEFIES LOGIC.
If you are LONG and refuse to sell your old shares now….then you are INSANE to vote YES or even SAY you want a RS.
Nuts. Bozo. Bonkers.
ONLY talk about how GREAT you think a RS would be if you SELL your shares and tell EVERYONE to SELL theirs too.
Because you’d have to be INSANE to think that the shorts won’t come in and eat the value from the inflated RS stock price.
What is the figure? 80% of all stocks that do a RS go LOWER?
I dig u Brandon. And I hear what you are saying. It freaks me out to see you freaked out so much. But maybe I should thank u. Because you’ve actually scared me into thinking perhaps it may be time to end this and just sell after 4 years of pain.
SHope,
What you posted means nothing. It is the old filings from the closing of the merger. Not sure why you would get these in an email now.
How many times have we seen negative commentary or down grades?
How many times have we seen or heard anything from company management coming out to defend the company or stock price?
Mel at the Merrill Lynch 2008 Media Fall Preview or on cramer really helped didn’t it.
I rest my case.
It is my opinion that the Sirius Management team is either in cahoots with “whoever” to take this company down, or that they are grossly incompetent.
SHop,
I see where you got your info from. This is just paperwork cleanup rfom the merger. Maybe we can find out the results of those bond offerings now. They should seriously enlighten us about cash on hand from the money raised for the merger.
What Sirius should do is get some cash together an buy back some shares. Of course, this after they take care of the Feb09 debt. Decrease the float and show these guys that they are not screwing around
friggin..you should sell now and wait for it to drop to mid 20’s and almost double your shares.
chizzle
hang in there it will drop again..no doubt the shorts will bring it down to at least .25 in the next few days
if we all dumped now it would drive the stock price lower and we would be able to buy back at real lower price.
Siriusly though,
I am trying to put a time line together that ties Mark Weinkes pronouncement to the downside to the Sirius’ Stock Price. I know pre-merger in June, 08 he was at around 2.25, then in July, 08 he proclaimed 1.50 and we thought how absurd but the stock went to 1.85 and then rebounded to 2.68 right before merger approval. Then merger is approved by FCC, on a Thursday/Friday, 7/31-8/1, last minute negotiations (ugly financing deal) over the weekend and 8/5 FCC issues official reports, we get details of the deal and the Stocks lent are at the exact price of Weinkes target at 1.50. The stock bounces around 1.30 and 1.53 for a couple of weeks and while all these new shares to be shorted need to make money, Weinkes 1.50 target being reached, readjusts to 1.00, and says he as easily could have said .50. Stock Price nose dives to .85 – 90, we wait for Mel, Mel speaks and the stock goes to .70 and then to .60, and Weinkes confirms new target of .50 and we are all F**k’d. Now after feeling BK Fears, Proxy Statement with a RS and Dilution of shares (all shareholders feeling betrayed by Mel), a retrace approaching his old target of .50 as we see a marketing video saying again we’re working on it, what does Weinkes do????? Announces a new target of .25 and questions everything without any real changes in the company’s execution.
I really would like to put shorting activity details, what companies and who and what clearing house were the trade cleared through, to the dates of each Weinkes announcement date of his new target. No one has adjusted their targets with this kind of accuracy period ever in the history of trading without insider information and spending time in jail.
COS what do you think?
I think GS wants more convertible shares and keeps shorting and downgrading. This way in exchange for the existing debt the lower the value the more shares it will take to pay them.
Terrymr…
I think you are asking the right question.
Sub sales will not be off this year. Mel even stated in the Autoline interview they are hitting the numbers, it is almost November. 2008 is almost history.
Mel even went as far as to say they will hit the numbers in 2009, and maybe even improve the savings to over 425 million in synergies.
Think about that for a minute, Mel is stating that the subs will be just as good in 2009 because of the penetration rates. Barring
a complete melt down of the auto industry and that is not going to happen.
Even at 12 million units we are fine.
If the lending is relaxed and new car sales increase to 13 to 16 million units in 2009, Then Katey better bar the door.
So someone is a LYING DOG, and I don’t think it is the Sirius dog Mel.
That leaves Wienkes.
The only Problem Mel eluded to with concern is the Re-Fi’s. If that can be serviced I believe we will be profitable at the end of 2009.
If we can get the Re-Fi’ serviced we are home free finally. At the end of 2009 SiriusXM will not be trading in pennies but dollars, and also will be profitable for the first time.
It means we have finally met our fixed high costs and are producing profit beyond it.
It will also be the begining of the profit increasing every year then after. Do the math at 2 million subs a year.
Wienkes is full of shit.
Let me say that again, WIENKES is full of shit
imho
vaporgold
May 400M term loan due is only 2 months from the lenders calling Sirius on the 400M even if they find a way to come up with the Feb 270M.
This will be just a big an issue even if Feb Converts resolved.
This is the problem when you don’t have sub#’s, revenue, costs to bite into for 3rd and 4th quarter. 3rd quarter will be abysmal and 4th will improve, but still be very messy although best quarter for retail.
This is why I’m more apt to try and trade and still skeptical of holding for too long, but I still keep screwing up anyhow.
As chizzle and some know, I have been posting my thoughts on stock price on Seeking Alpha since Friday morning. When the SP held at .202 instead of .20 pre market, I missed buying another 10 K shares and said so that morning. More amazing to me was the total lack of interest on Friday AM, pre market, seen on level ll trading platform, on a historic lock down day, this stock only went down .0498 cents for a moment pre market. My take was that at .20 there were set triggers and this would have taken the stock down even further and WHOEVER didn’t want that. I reported what I saw and announce with any general market pull back the stock would go to .26-.27. It closed at .297. On Monday when the stock showed momentum pre market, I said it would close at .37-.38, when it over shot .40, I sold all my shares at an average of .42. Reported the reason and reset my buys in at 1/3 at .27 and the rest at .222. Took a lot of heat. I also told some to set their trigger for early morning pre market today and pull the trigger. Pre market level ll went to .45 briefly then started it float down all day.
I do not have any direct answer other than SOMEONE IS MANIPULATING THIS STOCK. If Weinkes is a pawn, which I am sure he is with a pay off we will never see, he should minimally do a few years in jail AFTER giving up all those he has worked for. Its all to neat, and even I am being able to play it at these levels and I Am Not That Good. Take out the Fear, big money buys Friday morning set the bottom above .20, the video plays on Autoline, a staged interview, the stock goes up. Weinkes re adjusts his bull shit analysis the stock goes down. What do I think??? What are we going to do??
Hey cos. Great post. Don’t have time to read your stuff on alpha. Thanks for posting some here.
Reality is. You can trade it. Or you can wait it out. Th
There may be May debt due but “It Is Not Golman Debt”. That’s the big difference.
I’ve always wanted someone to list each debt item and who holds that debt. I’m to lazy to find it myself.
I’m sitting on a new position. It’s the bent over twice position. Like twice baked potatoes.
Aw well. I’m sitting for now. I want to see how November goes and December.
Thanks again to all.
I just watched the video and I have to say, as excrutiating the pain must have been,
I would rather get hit across both ankles with that sledghammer than lose the $, time and deal with the mental abuse and toll this has taken on me over the last 5 years.
Hey Vaporgold. I agree with your post. And hope we are right about who the lying dog is.
Mel is a salesman though………………
Ahhhhhhhhhhhh. No I’m sticking with your post. lol. Weinkes is the lying dog.
People say he’s always right. But that’s not true. Just since the merger with the debt trouble has he been able to be right. On the merger itself he was always off. He’s an asshole.