There are many reasons why I feel that the 50 day EMA at 3.34 represents a natural bottom for SiriusXM. However, there are also reasons why I can see this equity test the 100 day EMA at $3.20. The good news is that there is a strong technical support level at $3.24 that is protecting the 100 day EMA.
I would currently place the odds that the equity will hold $3.30. The key here is keeping that $3.24 support level in your mind. From an RSI standpoint SiriusXM is not oversold yet. It is neutral. If it was oversold it would be a stronger signal of a bottom.
We did see the equity drift down, but saw that happen on lower volume. It could be a signal that the bottom is close. We also have the 5, 13, and 20 day EMA's converging. For quite some time a convergence of the EMA's has brought on an upward pressure. For the moment I am putting a $3.75 out of the picture and adjusting it to a mid/long term target. My short term target is $3.57.
With this equity things move in nickel increments. Thus a 15 cent run should be the rule. From current levels that would make $3.50 a key area. I would not be surprised to see resistance begin to develop there.
Watch the volume and watch the news flow (overall markets). If Sirius does trade down again we want it to be on volume of less than 40 million shares and to hold $3.24.
Support and Resistance
Exponential Moving Averages