Where Is Howard?
When Howard Stern was going from terrestrial to satellite, he was everywhere. When he knew he was in a position to get some bonuses, he hit the circuit talking up Sirius. Lately he has not been anywhere. Howard did not earn a bonus last year, and this year getting a bonus seemed promised to be an even harder task. The merger has happened, and Howard seems virtually silent.
Sure, he is in bumpers that air on both Sirius and XM, but where are the Letterman appearances? Where is the push to get the word out? Perhaps tying the lack of activity to a bonus is wrong, but money is a powerful motivator, and we did see a lot more activity when he did get bonuses than when we did not.
One frustrating moment came when Scott Greenstein suggested that Howard broadcast the show from the Super Bowl in January. Howard did not seem thrilled with the idea, indicated that his studio was in New York, and that live remotes are not as good as studio shows. While this may be true, live remotes bring their own promotional value, and listeners understand this. Besides, a live remote would give Howard exposure to people that otherwise have not heard Stern in quite some time.
Blaming Howard is easiest because he is the biggest name on satellite. Others should be doing the push as well. Where is Martha, Oprah, Opie and Anthony, Tony Stewart, Bubba The Love Sponge, Judith Regan, and Bob Edwards? Why not convince these satellite radio stars to give the medium a bit of a push during the Holiday season. We know Jay Thomas will hit Letterman as he does every year. Thomas always puts on a good appearance, but that is just one of what should be many opportunities to get more exposure for the Sirius XM brand.
The merger has happened. People have complained about the lack of advertising and exposure. With the recent channel shuffle now complete, I can see why the company held back a bit early on, but now is the time to make the push, and we need Howard Stern, as well as other stars to be a part of that push.
For the stars, bonuses would be great, but at this point, survival of the company should be a consideration as well. The days of easy money are gone, and now is the crucial time when those that make satellite radio great need to step up and pitch in.
The economy is bad. The credit markets are bad. The company is in the middle of trying to refinance, and certain metrics do not look rosy. Why not get all of the talent to point out the VALUE in satellite radio? Consumers want value, and satellite radio can deliver it. The message needs to be everything you can get for a small monthly fee, and the best people to sell that would be the talent on satellite radio.
Position: Long SIRI.
“The message needs to be everything you can get for a small monthly fee, and the best people to sell that would be the talent on satellite radio.”
I agree and you would think Karmazin would be doing something. The company is sinking and he is not even offering any promotional plans to increase subscribers. What happened to offering lifetime subscriptions or at least offering everything Sirius XM has to offer for $12.95 instead of trying to milk an extra 4 bucks out of a few people. It is as if Karmazin wants Sirius XM to continue down the road to bankruptcy. Why would we want to keep him as the CEO after him admitting that he wants to take the company private? It’s a great game plan. Drive the share price into the ground, perform a 50 to 1 reverse split and then dilute the crap out of the shares. I bet he will be able to get the market cap below a billion…oh wait, he has already accomplished that. Let’s shoot for 600 million… With a market cap of 600 million, after the reverse split and dilution of the shares, the share price will be $4.28! Wow, $4.28, Karmazin is doing a great job, especially considering the shares were 25 cents just a few short months ago. Karmazin will then take the company private for $8.00 a share and everyone will be happy. This is a great plan.
Tristan –
You’ve outlined a very grim but possible scenario. That’s what a R/S and dilution would very likely do.
al….
Howard’s contract started in january of 2006 and runs through January of 2011. While he did indeed sign in 2004, he did not begin his five years until 2006
Tristan
How can the dilution of shares if voted in at the annual meeting be done after the RS??
cos1000 – the added ability to dilute allows them to sell at any time, before or after the R/S. The authorized will decrease after a R/S but either way there will be additional shares to sell.
I’ll detail it exactly how could work under a couple different scenarios if you’d like. A few others have already done this so I don’t want to repeat if not needed but would be happy to if needed.
SoCal Run…
I hope you made it through the fires ok?..
The pps is just tracking the performance or news at this point, It may drop a couple pennies today, but nothing short of good news or bad news is going to move it much in any direction in my opinion.
Are we at the bottom? I hope so. .24
Mel said he is going to get the loans, So lets see when that happens. That would be a good omen and a shot in the arm for the stock price.
More investors are going to take a risk at these basement prices if some good loan news comes our way.
So we wait
imho
vaporgold
SoCal..I have not left the building…lately not much to say about SIRI that can be helpful. Just very disappointed we are still going backwards even after the CC. Until debt is financed only then MAYBE the pps will get a decent bump up.
GetItStraight
Thanks for the response and willingness to explain, but you answered my question by including the authorized shares in the R/S and those extra shares diluted and authorized, can then be sold to pay debt. So 3.5 Bil shares additionally authorized becomes 70 M with a value of 12.50 / share in a 1 to 50 RS at $.25 /share.
The current authorized shares of 4.5B become 90M shares of which 3.5B (70M) are currently outstanding or restricted, leaving 1B (20M) left for dilution. Additionally, the current shareholders who are RS will need unrealistic SP values to recoup their losses after, creating all the current shareholder dissatisfaction with this plan.
I believe that if Mel acted on this plan, in this manner to pay debt, rather than avoid delisting as he has stated, that he should be indicted and thrown in jail. To date, this is not what he has said he wanted the RS authorization for. In my opinion any RS used without a delisting notice from NASDAQ and the use of the 180 day period to bring the stock price above a $1, would be evidence of this misrepresentation and possible Fraud, and for that matter, conspiracy to committ a whole lot of shit. Excuse my legal jargon, I am obviously not a lawyer.
My opinion about Mel’s management is that he needs to execute the business plan, while paying of the debt or at least improving debt conditions to the benefit not detriment of the shareholders.
The merger debt refinancing has me giving him one big strike against him and the proxy statement with these controversial requests gives him two. Any execution of the above described dilution-RS-sell shares to pay debt action would be strike 3 and time to lock him up. He still has a chance to hit it out of the park, but there isn’t much time and it needs to be done through hard work and efficient business plan execution.
closed today at .23…20 coming sooner than expected. IMO…by the time of shareholder meeting it will be .15 or lower.
Hope:
Good to see you posting. I know the pps is “extremely” depressing. As is most of the financial news of the day.
There appears to be a disconnect in my view, regarding this recession/depression.
For months there has been bailout talk. Bailout vote. etc. etc.
Yet, can anyone other than AIG, show me where the money is going?
The only stimulant I’m getting these days is from caffeine.
I can tell you firsthand money is harder to get today, than ever before. Sooooooooooo, where is this upgraded lending policy.
Hey Hope, I keep thinking about that .15 price. Generally after Nov.15th the market traditionally rises.
But………maybe this really is the big one. I mean, hey who wouldn’t love to go back to their July Etrade statements and put in into cash and walk away.
Wow, my life would be completely different if I had, or not. lol.
Vapor. We need oxygen, some acetylene and maybe some morphine to get this stock lit up.
Wow the excuses I keep hearing regarding the pps.
We will know very soon now Vapor.
In two months it will all be out on the table in my opinion.
Take care guys.
Socal