The Street.com Misses On Sirius XM
It seems that a day does not go by where an article with bad information, or bad assumptions regarding Sirius XM radio is published. Writers have opinions, and that is perfectly fine whether they are positive or negative opinions. However, those opinions should be grounded in some aspect of reality.
TheStreet.com’s Scott Moritz published an article highlighting five equities that he feels may not survive another downturn. Sirius XM Radio was listed among these five equities. The fact that Sirius XM has had troubling times is not news to anyone, and the possibility exists that the company may have difficulties if there is another downturn. However, I disagree with the reasons outlined by Moritz.
In his article Moritz states:
“Tech’s hottest cash fire has finally reduced its stock to embers. The satellite radio shop has plunged deeply into red ink, accumulating a total deficit of $9.46 billion. Given that Sirius shares are trading at around 40 cents, it’s obvious that investors aren’t confident that pay radio stock has much upside. Sirius lost customers for the first time ever in the first quarter and is on track to lose 1.6 million subscribers this year. Free cash flow for the first quarter was a negative $4 million. With so much riding on new car sales, Sirius faces big challenges this year.
A likely scenario is that Sirius will collapse into the arms of its lifeline creditor and big debt holder Liberty Media (LMDIA Quote), owner of DirecTV (DTV Quote).
With friends like Liberty Media waiting in the wings, Sirius equity holders have reason to worry.”
Let’s look at Moritz’s reasoning in layman’s terms. Moritz lists as a concern the fact that Sirius XM has an accumulated deficit of $9.46 Billion. This is true, but what does that have to do with anything at this point? The number represents the total losses of the company for the length of its existence. If Sirius XM were to make $1 Billion in profits this year, the accumulated deficit would go down to $8.46 Billion. Thus, a company could still be showing a negative accumulated deficit even though their business model has turned the corner. Moritz would have been better off speaking of the debt Sirius XM currently has. That number is $3 Billion. It is the current debt that would impact the company if there was another downturn. Past debt would not matter at all.
Next Moritz deals with the stock price and investor confidence. He states that the current stock price demonstrates that investors are not confident in the company. While this certainly may be true, investor confidence is not a determining factor of a company making it through another downturn. With their debt staved off for a few years, the company is actually well positioned to ride out the storm, and perhaps another downturn.
Moritz then deals with the subscriber count, and states that the company is on a pace to lose 1.6 million subscribers this year. While a number such as that is possible, the trend created has more to do with promotional subscribers than anything else. The financial metrics of the company actually show that the slowdown in the promotional subscriber category becomes a cost saver for the company. Most OEM promotional subscribers have to become self paying subscribers for a year before that sub actually sends dollars to the bottom line. It is likely that the Sirius XM will demonstrate on their balance sheet that they no longer require massive influx of promotional subs in order to be a viable. The company is shifting to smarter growth, and less expensive growth.
The last statement by Moritz is perhaps his biggest error in my opinion. He states that investors should be concerned because of Liberty Media, and that Liberty Media is Sirius XM’s largest debt holder. How is it that Moritz missed the fact that Liberty is also Sirius XM’s largest equity holder? Liberty Media actually gives the company MORE stability, and investors MORE security. Because Liberty holds such a valuable stake in the company, they will want to protect it. The upside for Liberty on the equity side has already delivered more potential than the interest on the debt. Liberty has every reason to want the company to be a success, and because of their 40% stake in the stock, every reason to be aligned with shareholders, and every reason to ensure that the equity does well. In actuality, having Liberty waiting in the wings should cause confidence, and not worry as is the opinion of Mr. Moritz.
Simply stated, Moritz may feel strongly that Sirius XM would have trouble with another downturn, but the reasoning he lays out seems fraught with error. The question is whether Mr. Moritz would have a change of opinion if he were to look at the facts more clearly, or perhaps from other angles. Historical debt does not matter, it is present and future debt that matters. Subscribers cost the company money, and the company needs to act with prudence while car sales are low. Liberty holds the largest stake in the equity. They hold debt as well, but the equity is likely the more valuable piece of this deal for Liberty. I am not saying that there are not concerns with this equity, because there are. However, a deeper understanding of the equity is required so that someones concerns are built on a solid thought process.
Position – Long Sirius XM Radio
Right On! After reading The Street article, I felt like taking a shower. Complete garbage. Tyler you were too kind in your assessment of The Streets purposly false and biased article.
OK…………..
Since subscribers cost money,eveyone CANCELS their subscriptions TODAY then SiriusFM Oh-Oh!!! I MENT SiriusXM(my bad…)won’t have any costs associated with subscribers at all and the stock will go into the stratosphere where it belongs with Mel at the controls.
Brilliant, a fee based satellite radio company with NO subscribers. Why didn’t I think of that?????
Then again, I’m not a stock trading wizard like a lot of posters on this site. Just a lowly multiyear XM subscriber since Feb 2002 who is costing SiriusFM (oops! there I go again…)SiriusXM money every damn day and stockholder since Jan whenever What do I know???
Pretty much nothing, but that has never gotten in your way before..
Recondo
Siriusly (oops) you really arn’t that stupid(dumbass) are you! Just cont to be a disgruntled shareholder…that was too stupid to average down from your $7 sp…so that someday…you could eventually get your money back! What a F$%#ing idiot!
Tyler
Nice work. I think you kinda sugarcoated it alittle. The street and Scott M are a bunch of crooks and need to be prosecuted!
Not so much a disgrunted stockholder but more like someone who LOVED SatRad when it was something to tell friends,coworkers,etc. about.
Not these days my dear “Krypto1” & “still sirius” (who were kind to reply to my comments).
Make your bucks on a penny rise here and there, I’ve got ABSOLUTELY no problem with that. Just know that as long as Mel & Co. are running SiriusFM (damnit, I can’t help myself..must be some kind of Freudian slip. WOW!!! I wrote a big word in the proper context!! Not bad for someone who was recently labeled a “F$%#ing idiot” by some faceless jerk in the vast regions of the internet) it stands a good chance of all of us getting f**ked(subscribers & stockholders alike). Not to mention the decline in programming,content and sound quality. Oh, but those are such trivial matters when the stock goes up a penny here or there and experts like “still sirius” are eagerly examining Mel’s stool samples for the microchip contained in a kernel of corn that details his plans to make SiriusFM(damn,damn,damn..why do I keep doing that???)the dominant force in radio.
As if it were not that today…….
We can only dream……..
Tyler,
Nice article. I wish you would just come out and say what everyone knows. That the Street.com only purpose is to pump and dump stocks that are recommended by Cramer’s buddies. When they want to aquire a position or cover their shorts on the cheap the street.com comes out to attack SIRI (will malicious lies). I don’t think it is a coincidence that Cramer the clown(street.com) has been saying that SIRI is a worthless stock. He has been saying it since 0.05 cents and repeated it not too long ago on his stock. He can’t say anything so he gets his clonies (Moritz) to say what he wants. If anything, the stree.com coming out and spreading fears and lies only means one thing==> This stock will be going up fast.
Ralston….
As a writer that covers the sector I have a certain responsibilty to present the facts in a manner that has class, and carries integrity. I have to present an unbiased opinion that takes “long” or “short” out of the equation.
People that want to cover the sector should not write to simply satisfy the “long” or “short” position. That type of writing does not do anyone any favors.
Investors need to know the facts…They need to know the good and the bad. They need quality information so that they can make as informed a decision as possible.
As readers and commenters on this site, you guys have all the lattitude in the world to form a strong opinion about what is written in this sector. As a writer is is not my position to be a cheerleader. My role is giving facts and informed opinions based on a solid foundation.
Tyler, great job of rationally dissecting Moritz’s article point by point.. Keep taking the high road, your articles are always well thought out and your reputation is in high standing which makes your analyst so valuable. Brandon will throw more ideas out there to see what sticks to the wall which I enjoy, but you no doubt are more rational in your approach. Two totally diff. styles each which has their own diff. attributes.
Street.com should be renamed “ally.com”…..Or “sewer.com”…anyway, good job correcting this garbage…
This is the same Street.com. that is run by Jim Cramer, a Goldman Sachs schill! Like, most folks realize this by now, and, also that Cramer layed out this same erroneous type journalistic lieing(in his, now famous expo on how to be a crook) to damage a company that he or his buds short! By now, The Motley Fool and the Street . com. have clearly made the reason for their Siri negativity quite clear; they have an agenda to bash this “Penny stock” and have, thus far, devoted a conspicuous amt. of time making their slanted comments out to be obvious lies!
The 2 of them (St. and M.F.) have sacrificed what little integrity they may have had to make “kickback $$” just as our U.S. Senators did during the dragged out Siri merger process!
When will Siri’s home office get off their asses and make some kind of definitive comments about those who are pimpimg for the likes of Goldman Sachs??
ok Tyler . . now you know why I said “JC” should not be quoted in your prior article . .
The entire “JC” enterprise is completely lacking in integrity and credibility. “JC” is the one enemy of my enemy that is still an enemy to me . . . as is that duplicitous hypocrite’s website . .
You have exposed Moritz as inept . . now he’s got “less ritz”
Great work . . expose them all one-by-one!
p.s. please see my PM to you
p.s. in case anyone missed it, the “trading goddess” wised-up sometime ago and kicked Mr. Wonderful’s ass out the door . .
now, when will Jeff Immelt wise the hell-up before he loses the few remaining legit sponsors CNBC has . . I mean, be my guest Jeff, if you can make money from a company that sells a sponge with soap in it knock yourself out . .
Louis Rukeyser is spinning in his grave!
p.p.s. I see that that know-it-all “Donny Douche” has been getting a lot of air time lately (not) after proclaimimg on “Power Lunch” that Sirius XM stock was worthless . .
Wonder what ever happened to Donny? Maybe he can go to work for his sister’s law firm or right-up some nice TV ads for her like that one that makes her look real classy . .
Hey Donny . . last time I saw one of those two-tone shirts was on Mickey Dolenz of the Monkeys you suspender-wearing ego maniac jerk . .
Might be a little off topic but investor relations has stated siriusXm has lost less subs than last quarter so we know thats good news.
They also stated that revenue is up as well.
Tyler, he and many others, put as negative a spin of anything Sirius, as they can. I can’t wait to see what that spin is when Siiirius has positive earnings. But you can bank on it they will think of something. Aren’t they making big bucks off Sirius? I think people are getting a little leary after no BK and financing coming through. If the economy has another two terrible years (does anyone think that is probable) we won’t need writers or radios. They also know anything about Sirius gets tons of hits. I have stopped reading most of them.
Why is he still on TV? Shouldn’t the SEC shut Cramer and his crew down for misleading the public under the premise that “he knows more” and his work for Goldman. So what??? He was the MAIN reason this stock was pumped up to 3.80+.
He pumped and then dumped… A classic misuse of his power in media and he should NOT be allowed to pump and dump via TV. It was, and still is, misleading and nobody should listen to him or any advice that is dished out by thestreet.com.
It just makes me sick to see how bent out of shape people get when he, or his crew, publish crap.
Stop clicking on thestreet’s articles. They are full of bs… Like we couldn’t name 100 companies that won’t make it through another downturn!!! Actually, if another downturn happens, I would think the USA would be the one to fail.
China would own the US… I think Sirius would be the least of our problems.
Thestreet.com can go (bleep) themselves. They are obviously trying to single out Siri.
They have a vendetta and will continue to bash them no matter what!!! It obvious and I can’t believe they have not been sued. (Maybe that’s soon?? How bout it Mel? How about showing these clowns you can dance??)
Very nice rebuff of Moritz’s twisting of information….. Let’s not forget that all that deficit has resulted in a very big Tax Loss, that now has value as the company turns the corner…. Our “friend in the wings”, Liberty, and SXM Management are eager to protect that historic deficit so negatively looked at by Moritz. That deficit is now an asset against future profits, reducing corporate tax going forward while having the effect of increasing FCF. It appears to be easily written off by morons like the Street.com and others that they continue to bring forth to disparage the future of this war tested company. Articles like Moritz’s only hurt the naive and uninformed, which appears to be the goal of TS.Com. Good job again Tyler on shining the light on ignorance ….
very good point cos. I thought about bringing that up in the piece, but did not want to cloud the issue because some people might be confused about it.
If the Street.com is coming out with what is clearly a bash article, especially right before the 2Q CC which is next week, then it is obviously time to buy. Just as it would have served everyone to go against that media when the price was at .07 at some turned at 600+% return off it.
I suspect this means the stock will be around $1.80 in 6 months?
This guy needs someone to take his pen and plant it into his chest between the third and forth front leftside ribs.
Nice article Tyler.
The article by Scott Moritz is so flawed that you have to ask what his agenda for writting it was. Is it his agenda or is it the agenda of thestreet.com to put out trash like this?
Tyler
Great Article.
You left out that Scott Moritz is paid by Street.com who is paid by Jim Cramer who is paid by CNBC who is paid by Jack Welch & GE. Soon it will all come out. Scott Moritz is just a puppet for the upline mentioned above.
Ask Yourself this
Sirius XM Radio in every new Car
Sirius XM Radio going in all cell phones
CNBC and other Business news…How come they have not told the Sirius XM Radio story and the Stock Shock movie story.
It is the biggest story on Wall street and CNBC has turned a blind eye.
WHY ?
How can Motley Fools & Street.com continue to write 1/2 truths.
please connect the dots Tyler. They are all part of the news media collusion.
Richard
Dick Keane….
There are dots there, but no smoking gun. As a journalist, I can lay out the facts, but unless there is a smoking gun, I have to stop short of outright accusations. Sometimes that can be a fine line, but it is better to be safe than sorry. There is a ton of “circumstantial” evidence that points to many things. Most readers are well aware of it.
Why is it that anyone who says something negative about Sirius is automatically involved in a huge conspiracy to “bash” the stock? Generally, the price of any stock is set by institutions, and not by the average Joe who might actually make a purchase/sell decision based on what he or she reads on TheStreet.com. Obviously none of the posters here decided to sell SIRI based on Scott’s article, I don’t know why people think everyone else will. I am a Sirius owner myself, but instead of blindly insulting negative articles about Sirius, I simply read and consider the points involved.
Now, here are my thoughts on the article. First, I do feel his point on the accumulated deficit does have some relevance. Although it doesn’t directly affect Sirius XM’s ability to pay its debt, it does directly affect the book value of Sirius equity. Currently, stockholder equity stands at $244,528,000. Or just under 4 cents per share after accounting for Liberty’s 40% stake. The current price of SIRI is supported by speculation rather than earnings, dividends, or book value. People buy the stock because they think/hope their future earnings will be worth it. What do you think will happen to the price of a stock supported by speculation when overall market confidence drops? Probably the same thing we saw over the past several months.
Next, I do agree that fewer promotional subscribers would indeed save on costs during a downturn. Lower costs means it’s easier to pay the other bills. Nonetheless, falling subscriber numbers are nothing to rejoice about – Sirius still hasn’t found their magic break-even point. This would be a tough sell if Sirius needed to take on even more debt in a downturn.
Overall, I think the article does have at least its main point – Sirius would have trouble staying afloat if we had another sudden economic downturn. Is that relevant though? The real question is whether that hypothetical downturn is actually going to happen. Personally, I think that Sirius will pull through and hopefully find those earnings they previously projected. I know Mel has said in the past that they will be in the green at around 20M subscribers. They’re close, and I hope he was right.
Malone profits on the common at .01 cent a share. Im being a tad extreme, but you get the idea. Yes, Tyler that article is sham, and one of the biggest hatchet jobs Ive seen in a while. I think the media tipped its hand with this release.
Do you guys all wear tin-foil beanies and scan the skies for black helicopters?
It is quite possible for people to criticize SIRI because of its poor management, debt and inability to turn a profit.
Moritz points out the debt load and current deficit for SIRI and you guys simply gloss over it.
The fact that Mr. Savery doesn’t understand the effect that actually turning a profit would have on share price, given the current debt load, is an indicator of POOR analysis.
Moritz is CORRECT!
No hes not actually. Re read the article blah blah. This time open your eyes, and wipe the excrement from them. How many shares to you hold blah blah? Curious. How long have you been a stockholder? Exactly. Why they allow your bashing ass to be here still is beyond me. Make a bear care, use facts and logic, or your just a fart in the wind. Cause your logic smells like crap.
bah Bah….
My response to you is in the forums
https://siriusbuzz.com/forum/showthread.php?p=43638&posted=1#post43638
Tyler….don’t hold your breath waiting for boo boo to give you counter points on your post on the forum. All he can say is Mel’s a dope. Management team sucks. Stock is doomed. His low brow analysis is not match for what you do on a daily basis so I don’t expect you’ll see anything from him on the forum.
As the economic depression continues to unfold do you think people will pay for something, that can get for free?
Mel managed to destroy the music channels. Now they are just like commercial FM radio with the ads replaced by repetitious bumpers, jingles and self promotions. The playlists are shallow and the “DJ’s” are obnoxious and annoying.
Satellite radio used to be something different and wonderful… now it is more of the same old same old. Do you honestly think people are going to pay for this… especially in this economy??
“If Sirius XM were to make $1 Billion in profits this year”
lol
Todd…..
I used $1 Billion because it simply makes a point with ease, and for the fact that is was exaggerated enough so as that it would not confuse the reader. I am sorry that you took it to mean that I felt they were going to make a $1 Billion profit. I do not, and i thought it was obvious by the tone and structure of the article. Perhaps I should have used $5 Billion to make the point more clear.
I’m amazed by Jim Cramers “quote” good standing after John Stewart shot him down on The Daily Show. The video he aired in the middle of the interview was not just a smoking gun it actually showed Cramer shooting the gun. Between STOCK SHOCK & THE DAILY SHOW we can only hope some politicians will buck the powerful system to bring trust back into the markets. Although a strong supporter of Sirius Xm as a sub and stockholder part of this economy turning around relates to getting trust by on Wall Street to main street. Our political system, will it ever get over it’s self serving ways that seems to spew out apathy to the people it is supposed to serve?
PS: It’s ironic that Sirius carries CNBC.
“Let’s look at Moritz’s reasoning in layman’s terms. Moritz lists as a concern the fact that Sirius XM has an accumulated deficit of $9.46 Billion. This is true, but what does that have to do with anything at this point?”
He is talking about the future. Of course that number does not have anything to do right now.
“If Sirius XM were to make $1 Billion in profits this year, the accumulated deficit would go down to $8.46 Billion.”
1 Billion in profits ??? What were you smoking man ? They already loss the first quarter !!!
“Next Moritz deals with the stock price and investor confidence. He states that the current stock price demonstrates that investors are not confident in the company.”
Of course we are not confident. I am not accumulating anymore… Heck, I even stop trading this issue. There’s no money to be made here… Which is the point of investing !
“While this certainly may be true, investor confidence is not a determining factor of a company making it through another downturn.”
Let me see… where do I begin… The business models in this capitalist society calls for the companies to raise money NOW for whatever reason (most of the time to pay the founders, the CEO’s and/or officers and to pay prior debts) ! Since these days most are unable to raise money NOW thru operations or even IPO’s, their recourse is to sell parts of the company or obtain credit, yes thru stocks, bonds, warrants, whatever means, etc…
So, investor confidence in the company is not important, uh ? Unless they keep striking deals like the one with Liberty (who said that was a good deal ? It was good becasue they averted BK but in the long run ?), I do not see how investor confidence in the company is not important. INVESTORS are HEDGE funds, Banks, GS, MS, Insurance companies, other companies, etc … If they do not provide the money for this loser to keep going then who will ? You ?
“Moritz then deals with the subscriber count, and states that the company is on a pace to lose 1.6 million subscribers this year. While a number such as that is possible, the trend created has more to do with promotional subscribers than anything else. The financial metrics of the company actually show that the slowdown in the promotional subscriber category becomes a cost saver for the company.”
It doesn’t matter how you paint it, they will lose subscribers and that is not good.
“The last statement by Moritz is perhaps his biggest error in my opinion. He states that investors should be concerned because of Liberty Media, and that Liberty Media is Sirius XM’s largest debt holder. How is it that Moritz missed the fact that Liberty is also Sirius XM’s largest equity holder? Liberty Media actually gives the company MORE stability, and investors MORE security. Because Liberty holds such a valuable stake in the company, they will want to protect it.”
That is what is called a HEDGE ! Liberty doesn’t care about SIRIUS… They care about making money !
“Simply stated, Moritz may feel strongly that Sirius XM would have trouble with another downturn, but the reasoning he lays out seems fraught with error. The question is whether Mr. Moritz would have a change of opinion if he were to look at the facts more clearly, or perhaps from other angles. Historical debt does not matter, it is present and future debt that matters. Subscribers cost the company money, and the company needs to act with prudence while car sales are low. Liberty holds the largest stake in the equity. They hold debt as well, but the equity is likely the more valuable piece of this deal for Liberty. I am not saying that there are not concerns with this equity, because there are. However, a deeper understanding of the equity is required so that someones concerns are built on a solid thought process.”
Anyway you look at the company, if there is another downturn, SIRI will RIP. I agree with Moritz.
To say that Liberty does not care about Sirius is off base in my opinion.
Liberty has a 40% stake in the company. They also hold debt. It is in Liberty’s best interest to ensure that Sirius remains a viable company.
$6 billion in tax free income will get anyones attention. Liberty is VERY interested in Sirius XM
Im happy to see you countering thestreet.com bs Tyler. Thanks.
Thanks for the information.
John Zarlino
Your Car Guy
youre welcome tyler-good article
Tyler,
For some reason, I’ve always considered you as a reporter who writes mostly negative stuff about Sirius while pretending to be a supporter. I don’t know how I got that opinion.. may be from some of the other articles you wrote… May be as a long long, I only want to hear good things about Sirius and tend to ignore bad things as bashing…
BUT, this article proves to me beyond doubt that you try to report the truth – good or bad.
The best response to that crap without falling down to their level.
Thanks for changing my opinion about you.
Hoping…..
That is what is very interesting about what I do. I have people that call me a pumper, and then people who think I bash the stock.
I try to present a level playing field with information about the company that investors should know or consider. good, bad, or ugly, investors need to know what is out there.
I love the product and have it. I am invested in the company. I will not and can not be a cheerleader. That accomplishes nothing other than people patting me on the back because I write what they want to hear.
What you said today means far more than 100 people saying, “yea tyler, that’s right” even if I am dead wrong.
I hope you can enjoy the site knowing my style and knowing that I simply try to put all of the news out there.
Let’s face it. Moritz has an axe to grind against Sirius. Maybe the man has nothing else to write about. Who knows? Who cares at this point. Sirius, after all these newspaper and media stocks (with Mario Gabelli’s blessing)have taken off, is fundamentally and technically poised to go up in price. This company’s currently worth 1.62 billion dollars. It is grossly undervalued. It should be worth at least 9 billion dollars. It’s only a matter of patience and time and we’ll get there.
by the way I actually saw a siriusxm logo today shown on the weather channel before they broke for commercial
bout crapped in me pants -i did
“How is it that Moritz missed the fact that Liberty is also Sirius XM’s largest equity holder? Liberty Media actually gives the company MORE stability, and investors MORE security.
…The question is whether Mr. Moritz would have a change of opinion if he were to look at the facts more clearly, or perhaps from other angles.”
What, you mean to look at the facts from a view other than his “handlers” want him to portray?
Moritz and his Goldman superior Cramer are both so tarnished with their goal directed “opinions,” particularly on Siri-XM, that it is amazing that either one of them is still currently in a position to write about stocks at all.
And, of course, this is IMHO, but obviously, my opinion is based upon more facts than Moritz’ piece.
Oh my GOD. I just saw the funniest most brilliant video that TOTALLY relates to what the naked shorting did to this stock and this company and how they took advantage of Mel’s Ego and master plan.
I laughed my ass off despite the pain it brought up. It stings of truth, and yet is so over the top funny I laughed despite myself. I’m a long suffering long and this just reminded me to have a sense of humor about life…because it’s just too damn short.
Maybe some of you have seen this video on Youtube, but for those who haven’t get ready. It’s taken from a German movie about Hitler’s last days in the bunker, but the “director” replaced the subtitles to read as if Hitler was Mel Karmizin facing the threat of Bankruptcy instead of Germany’s defeat.
And when I say it is brilliant…that is an understatement.
It was posted back in March during our darkest days, so perhaps now we can look back and laugh at it more easily.
Check it out and laugh! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....WeZVi0HRVE
OMG are you right! I just watched it 3 times in a row . . it gets better each time . . you know Mel had to have seen this, he just had to!
Hey Tyler, the street dot com just came out with a SECOND article saying why they were right and you were wrong. Are you going to let them get away with that?????
Goldman Sachs must be gearing-up for a big short position starting after the conference call on August 6 . . nice of Moritz to give advance warning . . Goldman obviously took Wienkes off-coverage and put Moritz on.
Hey Moritz . . you are walking a very fine-line my fomenting little friend.
This A..H… Moritz continues to prove he is an idiot of the highest degree. Look at his response to one john
“Another reader, John, location unknown, raises a fair question: How can you project a negative subscriber number for the whole year based on one quarter’s numbers.
The simple, snarky answer is multiply by four.”
Oh my God.. you chose to pick the worst quarter ever in the economy and multiply it by 4 to get your annual estimates.. Wow you genius! Why didn’t you pick the quarter when they gained 10% subscribers….. and if you did…. did that number hold?”
Sirius has no debt worries ATLEAST for 2 more years.. and going by his logic, IF the economy CONTINUES to tank(which it is not) for another 2 years.. I doubt even your boss GS will be around in that case…” some speakers sound best with their mouths shut and some writers are better writers when they are on a vacation from all the writings they produce….
Yeah, I am starting to not feel so good. After the backlash from the last quarter, some analysts started quietly upgrading the stock. The iphone app was finally released. Without Stern, but released and the first 2 weeks with the record downloads seemed to give me more hope. Especially when I saw Jim Goldman enthusiastically promote the news the scowling panel of bone heads on Fast Money. It was obvious there were two camps still…but encouraging to see SOME vocal support in the Sirius camp for a change.
Since then the stock has slooooowly run up from about .35 cents to just over .40 cents.
Not enough of a run to get excited about….but a run none the less.
But I’m beginning to get a weird feeling. Are we being set up again? If we get knocked down hard after earnings on some bad news, will we break thru .30 cents and back into the .20s since we haven’t risen that much and don’t have far to fall should we get slammed.
I feel that this is a defining quarter that will set the tone of how wall street will treat this stock for the rest of the year.
Was Mel’s warning about 2Q subs being bad like the 1Q subs in the last CC the truth or just a headfake? Does Mel have some hidden surprise up his sleeve to catch the shorts with their pants down? Or is that just wishful thinking from a long suffering long?
Like Han Solo said while trapped in the trash compactor on the DeathStar….”I got a bad feeling about this”…..and I do.
I’m getting really nervous about this conference call. I feel to move this stock up, Sirius has to knock it out of the park….because even if it’s an ok report, they will get slammed. And if it is a bad report? Then we are going to be buried.
I still can’t believe I am still stuck in this equity after 4 years. I’ve never been trapped like this before. I’m glad I was able to average down from my original pps of $6.50 to .99 cents…..but it still seems like an eternity away just from break even.
When I think of all the money I could have made over the last 3 years if I had my original investment to play with in ANY of my other stocks…I’d be sitting pretty right now. The thing that kills me is that everything with Sirius has been a loooooong draaaaawn out agonizing process. From the FCC merger delay to the post merger fiasco to the debt refinancing to the long awaited iphone app released without Howard to where we are now. Still in the dark. Still uncertain. Always given just enough hope to either keep hanging on…or buy more to average down. Only to be disappointed each quarter.
This next week is going to drag on too. And I’m starting to get that bad feeling. That the hope that has been building slowly as the stock rose .10 cents and from reading about the upgrades and the improving car market…..that ALL that will have been one more example of being suckered.
And yet I cling to the hope….that THIS time will be different.
If we are “lucky” enough for the SP to tank after the CC you should view that as your last great buying opportunity for this equity . . it will be a gift from GS.
Mel is running the company to make money . . FCF . . and if you carefully examine and look behind the metrics . . and not just the anomalies of Q2 . . you will see that the company is poised to make money . . lots of money.
God I hope so. I am so tired of this crap. It doesn’t make sense.
Frigginregan,
If that consoles you in any way..there are plenty of people like you and now is not the time to give up hope and fall into their trap.. Just understand that right before Sirius breaks all ties from its loss making history, those vultures will come out in full force to shake those precious shares out of your hands. They will be assisted from right, left, front, back, center, above and below by the media…..the fact that you’re having these feelings in a kind of victory for them.. hold on my friend.. your patience will pay off…even if it doesn’t, no single thing in your life is worth more than your life.. don’t get depressed…
Regardless of the vacillating subscribers from new car sales, etc. There is a loyal and rather large base of subscribers that is generally overlooked and will stay regardless of company condition or economic climate – as long as they continue to work. The truckers of the country. I know very few road drivers that do not utilize this service.
Liberty’s presence guarantees financing until profitable – patience!
There seems to be other avenues Sirius is persuing for future revenue streams – patience!
Short term trading – maybe. Long term, you will wish you had bought while it was under a buck!
I can’t stand anything connected with Jim Cramer.