The Howard Stern Influence
When people talk about satellite radio, the name Howard Stern almost always arises. Whether you like him or not, Stern is a radio and media icon who’s influence on entertainment can not be doubted. Some look at Howard with a jaundiced eye because of his edgy style, but he is much more than that. His boisterous fans who clamor to every bit or sketch are joined by many “closet” fans who enjoy his show on their commute, but never admit to listening to him.
How does Howard Stern command such a vast audience from such a wide spectrum of people? The answer is that he posses an ingrained talent to balance edgy content with informative discussion. He looks at life through a humorous prism, and for a few hours a day, allows some to laugh out loud while others curiously listen from the sidelines. Howard has an uncanny ability to bring out the most from his interviews, and shed a little light on aspects of his guests that no other interview brings out. The great thing about him is that you are compelled to tune in because you don’t want to miss radio gold like his interview with Paul McCartney.
When Howard Stern signed with Sirius Satellite Radio there was huge discussion about whether the cost was worth it. Stern fans loved the move while detractors labeled him as washed up, and over the hill. In the end, it was Howard Stern, and not the NFL, NASCAR, Eminem, or Martha Stewart that delivered subscribers in huge numbers to Sirius. Even in the face of a huge boost in subscriptions, some claimed that he was not the major factor in Sirius’ sudden growth.
Fast forward a few years, and Sirius would merge with XM. As part of the merger, an upgrade in packages would be offered. Sirius subscribers could buy the Best of XM, and XM subscribers the Best of Sirius. As of June 2009, the merged company had roughly 19 million subscribers. Of those subscribers, roughly 15 million are self paying. Roughly 5% (748,000) of the self paying subscriber base has elected to pay a premium to get the ” Best Of” the other package. The interesting statistic is that 544,000 XM subs have opted for the “Best Of Sirius”, while only 204,000 Sirius subscribers have opted for the “Best Of XM”. This translates to the “Best Of Sirius” package getting 73% of the “Best Of” market!
Is the gap between the two “Best Of” packages attributable to football? Not likely. These numbers are growing outside football season. Is NASCAR the answer. Again, not likely. Nor is Martha. The major draw for the “Best Of” package is Howard Stern. Perhaps if Major League baseball were to become a part of the “Best Of XM” package there would be some boost to the XM side of the house, but given that the NFL has yet to carry a big impact in the other direction is telling, and would point to modest gains in the “Best Of XM” package if it were offered. I am sure that die-hard Opie & Anthony fans will want to cry foul and label Stern as a “has-been”, but the numbers speak quite clearly. Stern is far from a has been, and will continue to be a major draw, even with a four day work week.
Howard Stern’s current deal expires about eighteen months from now. Before the end of 2009, the grumbling about whether or not he will return will become more and more newsworthy, even in the mainstream media. Stern will attract coverage that other name talent on SDARS has not. When Ellen left XM, there was no story about it on Entertainment tonight, or Fox News. Howard garners that kind of coverage, and he will forever be linked closely with satellite radio.
The fact of the matter is that Howard Stern carries a lot of cache. While Sirius XM could survive without him, having him on board makes things much easier. When he left terrestrial, a vacuum was created. terrestrial radio has survived, but they indeed missed him. For the entertainment world, the most serious question is not where Howard goes, but whether or not he retires. If Howard stays in radio, Sirius XM will have to put a competitive number on the table. If he retires, satellite radio will have already had the chance to expose subscribers to all of the incredible content Sirius XM has to offer.
Stern is a compelling differentiator in media. The numbers bear it out. His career bears it out. Whether someone wants to admit it or not, an edgy Howard Stern in hand is better than an edgy Howard Stern elsewhere. Howard still has influence, and has a great deal more influence than people really comprehend.
Position – Long Sirius XM
1/9/06 WAS STARTED WITH HEARTBEATS AND THE DAY HE RETIRES IT WILL FLATLINE!
THESE PAST 3.5 YEARS HAVE BEEN ADDICTIVE RADIO AND I ALSO LISTEN TO O&A AND RON AND FEZY. SIRIUS RULES…..
Howard represents a top pick with regards to exclusive content. While i don’t buy into his philosophy, Rush Limbaugh would have been another.
Exclusive content is a differentiator in the music and radio market. Slacker, Pandora, ITunes, Zune, and other music services are all commondaties. They all offer static music.
Sirius will survive and thrive as people discover that exclusive content is what they are really looking for.
SiriusXM is struggling right now, but it won’t belong before things pick up.
Howard is critical for SDARS. A few others to pick up would be: Rush
Air America
more live concerts (a deal with a venue to play all of their events live?)
Live Comedy
also, open up to mexico, and porto rico.
and get Oprah to shill for SiriusXM a bit more on her TV show.
“As of June 2009, the merged company had roughly 19 million subscribers. Of those subscribers, roughly 15 are self paying.”
Hey Tyler . . . who loves ya baby? (lol! thank you!! . . you are a man of honor . . . just add the “million” behind the “15” and it’s all good).
But more seriously . . . this once again brings me to the question of “unique” subscribers and how advertiser’s perceive the “Stern Influence”
We can quarrel about the numbers but . . . anecdotally . . . how many Stern fans do you know that have only 1 subscription??
Just for the hell of it . . what if the Stern influence is 3 million fans with 2 subscriptions each . . . that’s 6 million of the 15 million self-pay or 40% (3 X 2/15).
The Company cannot afford to lose Stern. Period, end of paragraph.
. . they should move now to extend the contract, even if on shorter 1 or 2 year terms with renewal options (the way Paul O’Neill did with the Yankees when he was thinking retirement).
The Company cannot afford to have an unhappy Stern in the “walk-year” of his contract spouting-off about going back to terrestrial as a negotiating ploy.
If Stern will only come back with Karmazin (bite my tongue). . then they should get both renewals done in November 09 when Karmazin is up.
If Malone’s gameplan is as I believe it is (pure speculation on my part). . which is to buy-out the remaining 60% of common that they do not presently own, sometime between February 17, 2011 and August 1, 2011, then package-up Sirius XM with Direct TV and flip the combined entity to AT & T or Verizon (why I believe the recent Liberty shuffling of tickers etc to set-up capital structure), then you can be sure that AT & T or Verizon will have to have control of the Stern brand to make the deal fly.
Lets face it . . we can talk content all we want but, really, Oprah & Martha do not even stack-up with Limbaugh, Hannity or Imus . . Stern is a must at this stage in the Company’s evolution.
The reason it makes sense to differentiate self paying from promo here is because promo subs are not getting the “best of” packages.
All Sirius XM does all day is promote the Howard Stern show. I would hope to god that some people are checking him out. Give O&A equal promotion, or any at all for that matter, and watch what happens. Give them a free week on Sirius with commercials constantly running on Howard 100 and 101. But no, they hide them and run a week long campaign saying to listen to something else.
Do you seriously believe that O&A even deserve equal promotion as Stern? Are you that screwed in the head?
O&A aren’t even in the same league as Stern or even Bubba The Love Sponge. Both of them collectively wipe the walls with O&A (and Bubba even stated he would like to literally do so).
O&A are wanna-bes. Period. They got kicked off of terrestrial radio because of one undeniable fact: THEY SUCK.
They were #2 in New York City. How does that constitute sucking? I’m sure if it had been Howard they would have kept him on a pop station. I know tons of tweens that would love to listen to Howard on their way to school in between Britney Spears songs.
If howard was on, they would not have had to become a pop station that is the point.
You are insane. Howard is jealous and afraid of Opie and Anthony. Why would he demand that Sirius XM not promote them if this weren’t true. Howard is a cowardly, stuck-up has been. Artie will OD any day now. Gary is a retard. Robin is a sycophant. Opie and Anthony are Sirius XM’s future. They’re insane to ignore that. O & A fans brought XM to their knees with cancellations when XM suspended them for a month. There are a lot of us. Respect us.
You are dreaming.
O&A have NEVER had a large audience and it was even smaller on XM.
You should really stick to factual statements.
FM radio promoted O @ A for a year. They failed in every market and now barely exist. They were on XM years before Stern came to Sirius but Stern had more listeners from day 1. Arbitron proves it. There is nothing to compare to Stern on radio. Even Limbaugh with a large FM audience (PPM proved it was overestimated) wouldn’t pull the subs Stern did because Hannity or Savage etc. free would take most of his listeners.
Hoohoo I invented breathing tell em Fred. Look at the stock price when stern went live. ~$8.00 now at $.36. Shares are a value of the product and with 5% of just the US population subscribing I wouldn’t call it a roaring success. O&A are good but I really don’t think they have that many listeners judging by the two supporting message boards. Hoohoo has 100’s of messages a day O&A have 2 active threads with 4 replies! Sad.
I love talk radio for the variety of subjects and the newness of it. But when both of these shows and Sat Rad goes the way of the Dodo bird there will be someone something else to fill the void.
Your moms………..
Mel:
Resign Howard now, or at least by December 1 2009, and lets move on.
As an XM subscriber -I opted into the Best of Sirius for the NFL- not Stern. I may be in the minority – but that is why I did so. I want Sirius to do an Ala-Cart format – so I do not have to pay for something (Stern) that I do not wish to have. I can tell you I have never tuned to his station and never will.
Well John, I guess you’ll never know what you are missing out on.
It is refreshing to read a story that actually understands Howard’s draw and his effect on media. It amazes me when I read articles that talk about him being a washed up has been.
I am a loyal fan, been listening for years and was there on 1/1/06 when Howard called right after midnight to say hello on the Sirius airwaves.
I’ll be there when he signs off (hopefully no time soon).
Howard was my ONLY reason to subscribe to Sirius … Ive since then fallen in love with Sat Radio and do not listen to T Radio at all. The best of XM has nothing for me – since MLB is not available. Hopefully Howard and crew along with Bubba (whom I also follow since HS brought him into the family) will resign with Sirius … even if its 3-4 days live in the afternoons … as long as I get my HSS fix Ill keep my current package … Howard goes then Ill switch to a music only package – Long Sirius and the HSS
If you listen you can see Howard is already ” negotiating” about coming back. My bet is he will for simular money and less time on the air. His ego won’t allow him to take less. Sirius has to more power this time and can’t afford to pay him more.
What do you want to bet Stern announces he is renewing his contract on Letterman Monday night.
I am a closet Howard Stern fan!!!
I came to satellite radio because of Howard Stern.
I’m staying because of everything else tat satellite radio has to offer…
And what is yet to come!
:>)
As an XM subscriber I opted for the best of Sirius package for the NFL. I know a lot of others who have done the same as well. I wouldn’t pay extra to listen to a washed up guy talk to a fat chick and a has-been comedian who never disagree with him. When was the last time Howard did anything edgy? 2001?
I have been a Sirius subscriber from its onset but NEVER listen to Howard Stern. He turns me OFF whenever I have
paused at his channels for a few seconds then I turn HIM OFF.
Sirius could monitor how many from the internet listen to Howard. When I log on via internet it’s only for one of the music channels I care for.
I think the missing data from this article is the fact that XM had a hell of a lot more subscribers then Sirius did when they merged. I’m pretty sure it was close to double which would explain why the “Best of” subscriptions are so off.
I would like to know if the numbers are before or after Howards free week? I came to satellite for O & A the first day. I love them with the exception of Anthonys right wing clap trap. But, even when I am pissed and screaming at the radio, I wouldn’t think of missing a minute of the show. I used to love Howard and his politics; but frankly O & A are so much better. And little Jimmy Norton is so goddamn quick with his brilliant lines, it reminds me of the old days of Jackie slipping Howie clever lines to say. Give O & A the same promotion; let them advertise endlessly on Howie 101 for a free week and then see where the “Best of” numbers are! Be fair, quit stroking Hoohoo’s ego and give the new guys a chance. They don’t get near as much $ as Howie, so at least give them the chance to shine! They can save sattelite radio, and work a 5 day week.
I am a trucker who has two year Sirius contract .
I originally switched from xm to Sirius because of Nascar , as a lot of my co workers did for the same reason.
But when i was offered the Best of XM package i jumped at the chance. I missed listening to Opie & Anthony , and there dark Humor. My Sirius spends 90% of its time on channel channel 197.
And the package included SEC sports as a added bonus.
Stern Probably brought alot of subscribers, when he first signed with Sirius but, i would say NFL and Nascar have more to do with the 500,000 getting the best of Sirius package.
Biskit
Biskit
I am always fascinated when I read that Howard is washed up, or when they use his contract as the reason SiriusXM is having trouble right now.
Let’s see…he has not one but TWO channels that he is responsible for, 24/7. That’s 336 hours of programming a week, much of it his show. He has a “news department” with reporters covering the “Howard Stern Universe”. If you “Google News” his name, you will routinely find anywhere from 500 to 1500 news articles about him. Not to mention “Howard TV” – the only “On Demand” channel named after an individual that routinely has at any given time over 100 hours of programming. And you cannot deny that Sirius subscriptions rose from 600,000 to 3,000,000 in the year he jumped from Testicular radio.
Washed up? I DON’T THINK SO!!
You actually think he has anything to do with the channels other than coming in for four days for his show?
yawn.
Tyler,
Great Story, but you left out a big part of the Story. Howard Stern is going on the David Letterman show on Monday June 8th, 2008.
Why ?
Becuase he is going to tell the World that Sirius XM Radio can be accessed from Anywhere at Anytime. Apple to anounce the Siri Iphone application. Mel K will make other anouncement in late hours and then Howard Stern will go tell the Story on Letterman about the i-phone aplication and other stuff. Also, he will tell the World that Sirius XM Radio is the leader of the Radio World for years to come and he is is KING again.
FY 2009 QT 1 Sirius XM Radio has generated the most revenue of any Radio company in the world. Sirius is 1st # 1 with $605 million in Revenue for FY 2009 QT 1. Clear channel, who Howards hates is 2nd BEHIND Sirius Xm Radio and way back in 3rd is CBS Radio and there 200 + million, well behind Sirius Xm Radio and they have been in business since 1928. Looks like Sirius XM Radio will put away CBS and many other Radio stations now that Sirius is heading to all cell -phones and gadgets of the future. Howard Stern is going there to David Letterman to tell the World he is back and again on top as the King of all Radio.
This is my sixth sense speaking, mark this post and you all will see in a few months. And when Howard does eventully retire, he will go out on Top at Sirius XM Radio inc.
And then, based on past positive news release’s, the stock will go down. You watch. I don’t know what it’s going to take to get the POS to move north.
Ok I agree Howard is a big pull. Before he went to Sirius they were way behind XM with subs. There is a few other things at play with the “Best Of” packages. Technology is not the least of them. XM radios can pick up terrestrial repeater stations so they have less dropped signals in tows with large buildings and other things that may interfere with receiving the satellite signals. Many of the customers who used to have both services dropped their Sirius radios to go exclusively with their more reliable XM receivers. The new radios will change this. Howard has a huge fan base is he worth his contract. I hope so, as a stock holder, but as a subscriber I care less. I find him dull, and uninspiring, but that is my opinion. Everyone is entitled to one. I will say from an analyst point of view Howard is the only relevant part of the Best of Sirius package, but you wonder why they dropped the price from 4$ to $2.
O&A fan (above) – your numbers are wrong. Just before the companies merged the 2 sat companies had relatively the same numbers. I would look it up for you, but im lazy. I am a listener to both Stern and O&A and anyone who denies the impact of Stern has their head in some other Vortex.
I have to agree I bought Sirius BECAUSE of Howard, I love the other channels but I am a big talk radio guy seems to get me through the day better than music.
However I am still waiting for this mystical Iphone streamer that has been on the cusp of release for over 6 months now.. (I’m referring to all the apps and the official one)
Someone just get it online NOW!!
Where is the I-Phone App? Will Stern announce the release on Letterman? Even better, will Stern announce that he does not plan to retire at the end of his current contract?
The issue has never been if there is a draw to Howard Stern, but at what price ? As a listener and a stockholder, I just can’t justify the price. If the company was making money then the extravagant spending could be tolerated as just cutting into profits. As it is, Howard and sports costs have placed the company on the verge of bankruptcy and has already cost us 40% dilution of the company just this year !! Sad to say, but someone should be working on a business plan to make this company work with no big names and only low cost sports and about 10 to 11 million subscribers. If it can be profitable at that level, then the high priced programming can be added back in if it can bring in more subscribers at a profit. Howard, NASCAR, NFL and MLB need to be told that the patient investors deserve some return on their money for a change. If they can’t live with lower fees, then the company will figure out how to move on without them.
Just one person’s opinion, but what do you think ?
Without Stern, there is no Sirius-XM.
If he left tomorrow, you might as well close the doors.
The instantaneous drop in subscribers would be fatal to the company.
BahBah Booey, perhaps that is true, but it’s not the point at hand. Howard isn’t leaving tomorrow, he has a contract. I don’t think you would close the doors, but you would have to get by on maybe 15 million subscribers instead of 18 million. Not fatal, but tough even with the expense cuts that have happened.
The real question is the future. Howard Stern, the NFL and NASCAR are all up for renewal soon. MLB has a long time left, and I don’t know about the college conferences.
Do we shove another Billion or two of the shareholder’s equity at these things or decide to tough it out with fewer subscribers? Howard Stern, the NFL owners and NASCAR are all very wealthy. The people suffering are the SIRI stockholders who have had 90 of their investment wiped out. I submit that a profitable company with 10 to 12 million subscribers is better than a company with losses as far as the eye can see with 20 million.
Just a thought
Looks like Fathers’s Day is going to pass before the I-phone appl.promotion or the I-Phone appl. at all.
They said the I-Phone app would be out before the end of the 2nd qtr. They meant 2009 right?
Yesterday was a complete failure for SiriusXM. Apple has no intentions of promoting SiriusXM, and I believe the iphone application will be rejected.
Sure feels that way around here, with the stale 4-day old nature of this ‘blog’………. just when everyone is expecting something……….I’d say business as usual !!
And as always…………..fear, doom and gloom, and someone is selling their stocks out on-the-cheap…………………
>>> The fact of the matter is that Howard Stern carries a lot of cache.
I assume you meant he carries a lot of “cash”.
He carried cash out of Sirius, and by extension, out of XM by the trailer-load. In fact, he’s about the only one who carried any cash out.
As some smart people predicted early on, after his five years are up, he’s history — and the $720 Million Sirius “invested” in him is history, the “brand” they built actually works AGAINST them, and Howard is laughing all the way to the bank.
Joe Clayton destroyed Sirius and the idiots running XM allowed Stern to take them down along with Karmazin.
Who couldn’t have foreseen the so-called “Stern Effect” was a temporary spike in subscribers? How could they have missed it?
I have both Sirius, in my car, and XM, in my truck. I will not get best of Sirius on my XM but did try to get best of XM on my Sirius. I do say try because the peice of garbage radio cannot be programmed for it. I will be letting my Sirius sub expire.
When the merge happened both company’s had approx 9.5 million subscribers, correct? If you attribute the entire 500k best of subscribers to Howard then only approx 5% of xm subscribers wanted him. More realistically, lets say half paid for him. This means that 95% to 97% of the people already paying for xm didn’t want him. This doesn’t exactly prove that he is worth 100 million annually.
The most likely final solution for the Howie dilemma is that he keeps the channels with Artie, robin, Gary and maybe Bubba. Howard stays on as the godfather of h101-h102 with a once weekly show. This way he gets to keep his pride and Sirius gets to keep 90 plus million a year. The koolaid drinking die hard fans will all scream, but most will stay put. After all, they are presently putting up with a guy who only does 160 live shows a year.
As for Howie jumping ship for terrestrial radio, listen to his show closely and you will hear how desperate he is to be done with the whole business.
As the SpongeBob narrator would say, “Nine years later…”
A lot of truly brilliant predictions here from the Hoo Hoo army. I asked Anthony about it while he was selling handjobs down by Bryant Park, but he didn’t answer.