Technically Speaking Sirius XM is in “No-Man’s-Land”
Sirius XM Radio closed at 36 cents on Friday, and from a technical trading standpoint, it sits right in the middle of “no-man’s-land.” With the stock dipping into the 30’s and the next support at 29 cents, technical traders are in the middle of a quandary, and the direction of the stock will determine how those traders react.
At this point the technical signs are a mixed bag. There are bullish signs, as well as bearish signs, and this is exactly the point in time where many technical traders employ a “WAIT” strategy. Options week always brings interesting behaviors in any stock, and this last week was no exception.
Current support levels are 29 cents and 23 cents. Resistance currently sits at about 39 cents and 54 cents. In the short term, most technical indicators are bearish, while longer term strategies are more bullish. Ironically, this sentiment is how many traders across the board feel about the prospects of Sirius XM Radio. Short term challenges, and sunnier days long term.
Sirius XM Radio is getting ready to hold their annual meeting. Typically prior to such meetings, trading activity and speculation drive the stock price up. This meeting differs slightly however in that the company just recently reported their Q1 results, and offered up insight on the direction of the company at that time. While we may see additional insight, I do not expect anything real new to be announced in terms of guidance, etc.
The next big factor for Sirius XM is not technical in nature, but instead news. The company will be launching their iPhone application in this quarter. I anticipate that this news will be announced on or around June 8th. News such as this does not wipe out the technical side of the equation, but it does bring in a rush of trading.
I have in the past stated that the range between 40 cents and 60 cents is an area where the company will not spend much time. The volume of trades between those ranges was light, and it is a point where the “real” direction of the stock will be determined. In my opinion, to get above this no-man’s-land, Sirius XM needs to show execution on various fronts as well as see the benefit of a turn around in the sentiment of the economy.
The next couple of weeks will be interesting to say the least. There are short term hurdles for the company which are offset by longer term cost savings and improved metrics. The current tug-of-war will keep active traders busy. What’s the best strategy? Talk to a financial advisor.
Position – Long Sirius XM Radio
>>”What’s the best strategy? Talk to a financial advisor.”
hahahaha … now that’s funny.
It worth max 37 cents based on 8.5 times ebitda. If it shows growth maybe it moves up late in the year.
It is worthless… hahah
Tyler, why no mention of the massive support at .32 to .30 range? The support you mention is much much much much weaker. Didnt trade in the .20s on the way up at all, and on the way down was extremely minimal. 200 DMA, 50DMA, and 30DMA, and 13 DMA are all much higher than .29. Lower bollinger band is above .29 and .32 is a major trendline, as well as a fib. retrace level. A ton of buying also occured between .30 and .32. SO if you want to talk TA, Im curious to how you derived .29 and .23 as significant support of mention, vs. .35, .32-.30 range.
I think no mans land is actually .17 to .29 range.
Relmor…..
There are many aspeccts to technical trading. I can see where you would arrive at the 30 to 32 cent range and the support that is there. I was basically pointing out the levels below and above where we currently are. I see it as a no mans land becuse the stock could well trade sideways here in the 30’s, whicxh is showing a lack of focus from a tachnical standpoint. If the equity breaks below the 30, the two levels I spoke (and I agree they are weak support) are points technical tarders will focus on. If the equity gets above the 30’s then the resistance outlined will be the focal point.
Technically speaking, the 20’s and the 40’s are both areas where there was little action. This is why I have maintained that the stock will not tend to spend much time in either of those segments.
So, you think a bearish medium term view opens up sub .23 cents then. Wow…. With no news.. Interesting… Over .40 is bullish and everything in between is no mans land. No. Thats where 99 percent of the buying is. Between .30 and .40 cents. So your wrong, period. You are talking about absolutes now. We are absolutely NOT in no mans land. Your article title is wrong. Period. No debate.
Relmor….
Not debating, just posting what I see. Rather than mince words, this presents a good area where people that want to know more about technical trading and opinions can develop.
I think that we both agree that the 30’s range gives a mixed bag of technical indicators. Some being bullish, while others are bearish. This is what I was referring to when saying “no-mans-land”.
Should the equity break into the 20’s, virtually all technical signs would turn bearish. Do you feel the same?
Should the equity brek into the 40’s, the technical signs turn mostly bullish. Do you agree with that?
I agree that a ton of trading is happening in the 30’s, but also feel that the technical indicators show a real mixed bag here.
Thoughts?
Best Strategy? IMO, the best strategy involves a change at the top. It’s NOT the economy, it’s NOT the automotive industry, It’s NOT anything other than who put this Company where its currently sitting: The CEO!
I am sorry if I continuously offend the host of this website by referring to said CEO as Melvin, but that guy has single-handedly put this company in a weak position ever since he first sat in his executive suite.
Babble on about this and that, but when reality sets in, the only constant in this rush down from +$9.00 per share has been Melvin Karmazin.
Time for Melvin to hit-the-road.
Indeed, Max.
Hit the bricks, sister.
you are 100% right.
The stock performance is not a response to Q1 report, but to the miserable presentation that followed it. investors were looking for a vision and firm plan and strategy. What did we get? more talks about cost-cutting, which leads no where in the long term. They are not willing to acknowledge what we all know — the problem with sub retention is primarily due to programming, not to the ecomony. We are looking for an offensive mode, not a passive/defensive mode of denial. If management does not know how to leverage, way beyond car sales, on the assets they have then there is nothing to look forward to.
Here-Here . . I will third that opinion and add that Frear, Meyer and Blaylock must pack their bags as well.
The contempt they show for shareholders is equaled only by the disdain I feel for them.
The techicals at this point are relevant only to day-traders . . . anyone with a longer term perspective has exhausted all confidence in management’s continuous fumblings . . .
SRK,
Mel will always be a step ahead of the shareholders. He’s become an expert at initiating rules that will prohibit him from every being in jeopardy.
So without leadership, and the company actually in the minus side of growth. It’ looks to be a long long road. Then of course there are the eternal pumpers that say. Well leave then. lol.
Honestly, take a look at the posts here and on the forums. Are you really kidding me. Defending a .34 cent stock with 1 billion in dilution ahead.
Can you spell. C L U S T E R F U C K ?
I agree 100%
Additionally, the chief programmer Mr. Greenstein should have been shown the door ages ago.
No, I turn bearish on a break of .17…. That would challenge the uptrend. Stock wont trade long in the .20s for me to acertain anything from that. I was bullish until we break .17. I am neutral between .29 and .17 and bullish over .32.
.29 and .17 is no mans land. Above .30 is solid support, and a simple retest of that support. We see .40 before .29.
allow me to correct you — SIRI is no man’s land
It saddens me to see how great potential goes down the drain for poor leadership. The original sin? Not understanding the fundamental differences in sub demographics between Sirius and XM — a weak analogy is PC vs. Mac. The talks about synergy turned to be a sad joke.
So for now, it’s speculation trading from A to Z. To get into this stock as a long investor at this point is a very bad choice (also from opportunity cost stand point). If a miracle happens, it is good enough to catch it in the up-trend.
Hey Socal . . can’t say it any better than you did . . a lot of so-called technicians following this stock . . simply no match for Mel’s street-smarts.
Unfortunately, this is what it has come to. The share price is still lower than “Cup O’Noodle” Top Raman soup.
In keeping with Tyler’s theme, no offense to all the “charting gurus” and “technicians” but what Mel knows, “They Don’t Teach you at Harvard Business School” (good book btw for summer reading)
back in training SOCAL . . . big 5M on Sat (9,000 runners; thunderstorms in the forecast)
SRK.
LMAO. Good bring back on the Top Raman. What happened to Dread?
Mel appears to be more than a few steps ahead at each mile marker. Unable however, to provide any positive for the business model itself. Can anyone name one Mel K positive addition?????????????????????????????
Hey glad to hear you are on the road again. Trying to recall a big time 5 miler with 9k people. I’m thinking plenty of “talent” in the field if you follow me SRK…………….