Technically Speaking Sirius XM Has Room To Move
Technical analysis has proponents and opponents, but in the end, a lot of what happens in technical analysis boils down to a lesson in human nature. I have seen system after system. Each has its flaws, but typically human nature has enough constants to make technical analysis work.
Personally I am a fan of watching volume and comparing it to the given price. In addition, recent and historical activity should also get due consideration. With regard to Sirius XM, I have believe that if the equity can hold above .40, that it would have a good chance of making a run to .60. My reasoning is simple.
On its way down to the lows of .05, Sirius XM Radio spent very little time in the range between .40 and .50. Because there was not much activity in this range, it gives the equity freedom to run through it quickly again. Simply stated, there are not people eager to sell at these levels because they likely bought at a higher range. Equally as important is that in recent days, the equity has shown some strength, and those holding the stock typically will not want to sell if something looks to have promise. It is simply human nature.
Stock sites that offer technical analysis such as StockTA.com are giving Sirius XM Radio some very bullish indicators across a range of technical metrics for investors to consider. Even if you do not believe that technicals work, you should at least make it a point of learning about them. The reason is that there are many who trade on technicals, and because of that, technicals will indeed play a role in the market.
Another popular technical site is American Bulls. For their part, the last recommendation on Sirius XM was a sell on April 7th. Their system is calling for investors to wait at this point, noting that the bulls seem to be gaining steam, but that indicators are not quite right to buy. Investors who have followed American Bulls on Sirius XM over the past two years would have turned every $100 invested into $316. Not a bad return. While I have not used American Bulls for any trades in Sirius XM, I have tested the waters with other equities, and must admit that when I followed the system, I performed better than had I relied on my own instinct. I am not endorsing American Bulls as a be all and end all system, but am saying that it is a great tool that simplifies technical analysis and should be considered as one source (among many) of information regarding trading.
In the end, it is my belief that Sirius XM has potential to carry a nice upward trend to the .60 level. In my mind the downside risk is .35, and the upward reward is far greater. To be clear, I am not recommending that investors buy, sell, or hold at these levels. Each investor has a responsibility to conduct their own research, and each has their own unique circumstances to weigh into the mix.
Position: Long Sirius XM Radio (No affiliation with Stock TA or American Bulls)
the big question is: will it make $1 soon enough to avoid the reverse split???
First of all, I think they have until October to get over $ 1.00 and by then they would have reported 2 more quarters and show that they are still growing revenues, reducing costs and on the cusp of straight profitability in 4th quarter and beyond. I do not believe shorting will be an issue in 6 months even if they did a 1:10 reverse to get it to $ 5.00 from .50 cents or 1:5 from a $1.00.
If it does than I am buying more.
What the hell is driving this stock up have never seen anything like this i remember when it was at .05 not long ago its a great end to a nice week if it can hold!!!
The recent S&P credit upgrade.
interesting- but a web site such as american bulls that pesters you to buy netflix is suspect at best. sell at 35 but today is 49? Cant wait to see their next prediction-I think I would rather just shake my 8ball for advice.
didnt look at it -but what did they say to do when it was six cents?
What would you say if it closes above .50 today ?
Nothing. There have been some catalysts that move the stock price like:
1.- Not declaring BK
2.- Liberty saving them
3.- Not so bad last quarter results
4.- S&P upgrading the credit rating
5.- Etc…
Overall improving economy and perhaps SIRI’s balance sheet.
Lets see what happens with the next earnings announcement. It may be time to buy for some… Not for me though, I am not adding until it reaches above $1.00 USD.
Sirius Owner..SXM..
I think you guys are right on the money, when the Q1 comes out if the profit is there the run will continue. 19 million subscribers and growing. They had great growth numbers compared to most industries last year.
You/We can bitch about everything that has happened or has not happened yet, but if they produce profit and add subs, that is what it is all about. That will drive the stock pps accordling.
imho
vapor
Tyler, you buying out the company? What is going on? Is this the big tease? Give us some quick insight. Ten cents in one day? Sweet for us crazy longs. My head is still swimming from the previous year’s huge drop. But this little upswing is uplifting. Do you think the shorties are hurting? Right on time with your article. Great timing. This move is a little ahead of my 3 year plan. Of course it may be back in the thirties by 4 Pm.
Crazy Little Thing Called Love!!
Listen Up Folks………………………We are gonna roll over the terrestrial radio punks AND shorts like tar under the proverbial steam roller on a hot summer day!!!
LOL !!
Wheeza-Moving……………UP……………!!!LOL
I first got into SIRI way back when it started. Made my money when it went to $8+. I sat on the sidelines after that, waiting on the forever to be passed, merger.
I got back in @.17 and have been watching it move everyday.
The technicals are great, but if you factor in the overall down turn, you have to look away from the technicals and start looking at the subscriber numbers. They seem to be the indicator to watch, along with debt reduction, and of course good press, will help the stock adjust to where I think it should be.
Once that number hits, I will sell, and again sit it out and watch for the next in opportunity!
The sweet sound of shorts crying.
I’m sure some people are tired of my beating the same old drum. I’m not trying to be a cheerleader but I just don’t see how this company does not become a big player period. Stand back, further, no a little further. Look at this company like today was the first you heard of it. 1st) The most important part of this equation is of course is the CONTENT (something for EVERYONE hands down, nobody touches them in audio entertainment & info)! 2nd) Nation wide Coast to Coast coverage & starting to go even more international. 3rd) The Merger! It’s done over they won that WAR (and like after any war there are casualties) and in the long run there are cost savings to be had. 4th) Financing. Liberty stepped up to the plate, but why. Did Mr. Malone feel bad for Mel & Sirius Xm? No of course it’s not out of pity it’s out of opportunity (look what it’s done for Liberty already)! He bought a dog and this dog is this man’s best friend. 5th) But this is not the final sum of the equation (I could come up w/ a few more and I’m sure everyone else could too). Everything for this company that could go wrong over the last 2 years went wrong. Which of course is why this company was almost on the brink of failing? But the good news is that they survived and the believers are growing and the nay Sayers are second guessing themselves. In the worst economy in decades this is know one of the best performing stocks period. How could this be? Add up 1 thru 5 and that’s just a start. I’m sure Cos, Relmor, Matt, Tyler, Charles Etc. could easily come up w/6 thru 10. We have a long way to go but we are firmly headed in the right direction.
Like I said, Crazy Little Thing Called Love !!
Gonna Zoommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm………….
Got some of the Wanna Be Investor Doc’s CRYING ALREADY…………..BTW……………..
Now, I was at my motorcycle shop today, and the owner was paying up his $39 dollar a month subscription……Why…..cause he liked it !!!! Imagine that !!!
And his workers liked some of the old, old talk stations like…………….’the shadow’ he said !!??
And so they worked ‘happily’ especially cause he “PAID” for their music/talk/sports/ variety………………Imagine That !!!
Duh !!!
(ps: FIX YOUR CUSTOMER SERVICE, KAZ !!)
Go figure, ultimately, No One Has That Level of Content, and I hope Ole Kaz and Boyz are hearing this cause they kill this Sh__……..and they ain’t got nuthing left !!!
Lastly, I know I said it before, but I’ll say it again, (sort of like beating that drum, Neal….heh,heh….)
Those of us who are business owners need to keep da faith at work too !!
and pay the piper at a 37% discount from Barack and Co………………………on 4/15 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LOL, M-O-O-N………….that spells $$$$$$$$$$$$$$
American Bulls rating was before the Upgrade by the S&P .
All of this irrational exuberance is just that, irrational.
Let’s not forget that Sirius-XM still has a very Sirius debt problem that has NOT been solved.
The rosey projections of revenue from the rate increase won’t bring in anywhere near what they believe.
Subscriptions will actually decline this year but yet we keep hearing about growth that can’t be justified by any metric.
Oh wait, in 6 months we MIGHT have an iPhone app.
Sirius management moves with all the speed of molasses in January.
Let’s not forget that the only reason they haven’t been delisted is the forbearance of a US Government Agency.
It’s one thing to be a fan but how about some unbiased views of the facts?
Yup…got it…
The merger will not be approved
Sirius Has a MAJOR Dept problem
Sirius will go bankrupt
Sirius STILL not resolved thier debt!
Really? Really, they havent? This is getting really old. Yes, they have resolved thier debt issues for the most part. They are begining to make a profit, which will snowball and allow them to pay off thier debt. They have plenty of options. Can we stop this nonsense about them going bankrupt yet??
OOps, I appologized I missed that this:
Billion dollar company is going to be an OTC Stock…
Managment is ineffective (spoken like someone who hasn’t completed a single buisness class or understands how many companies would have fallen apart due to the credit market at the time).
We can go on if you like….
Car Sales are down, thus Sirius is going to be wiped out…
Please continue. Your “fears” are very tired, we’ve been hearing this for the last year and guess what….Sirius is still here!
Stop being a douche.
I never claimed the merger wouldn’t happen.
For the record, the business I own has survived 9/11 and this tight credit market.
I’ll stack up my business knowledge against a snot-nosed fan-boy who is still wet behind the ears any day.
Sirius has NOT resolved their debt issues.
The claims that they have rely on making a whole lot of rose colored projections about revenue that no one should take as gospel.
Wow, strong comprehensioin. Good Job Dave Man! I’m simply stating that there are a group of people (which you seem to belong), that have nothing except negative comments to add about Sirius.
Sirius could announce virtually anything and you would put a negative spin on it.
I’m also very happy you own a buisness, congratulations, which was the company that you completed a multi-billion dollar merger with in the tight credit market…oh? What? Thats right you didn’t. I expect you will continue to find negative things to say, but as shorts clear out, profit is generated and subscribers increase, your negative attitude will be tougher and tougher to continue…
Oh, and call me a deuche? Serisously? Don’t use language on the internet that you wouldn’t use to someones face…and I promise you, you wouldn’t say it to my face
Tim
Yes siriusxm cont to have a sirius debt problem! However, short term, they are good to go. 100M due in 2010 (FACT), and i think about 250M due in 2011. By 2010, credit market should be better, and combined with improving co performance/merger synergies, should be able to refinance at more reasonable terms.IMHO
Iphone app release per co is 2nd qtr.(FACT) If at the end of the 2nd qtr and still no Ipone app…bash away my friend…but until then, shut up about the Iphone!!!!
I hate to burst your bubble, SiriusXM will show positive sub growth this year, with increasing penetration into new vehicles combined with a rebound in sales of new autos 2nd half 09(FACT PER EXPERTS IN AUTO), will have positive sub growth! Even if as you say, negative sub growth, co bottom line will improve dramatically for 2009!!!!IMHO
Please read up on the delisting rules before making dumbass statements like “Let’s not forget that the only reason they haven’t been delisted is the forbearance of a US Government Agency.” A co the size of siriusxm can and would have received 2 6 month extensions from NASDAQ…why in the hell do you think that Mel asked for R/S option with an expiration date of end of 2009! Because it would have taken the NASDAQ that long under their rules to delist Siriusxm…FACT
True statement that company mgmt moves as slow as molasses!!!IMHO
Tim- you cont to bash away at posters here who as you claim are biased fanboys. All you have to offer is your biased bashings of company without any facts to back them up. Aw you and have determined, you have your right to your opinions, they have their rights to theirs.
BTW- since you began posting, stock is up 800% and it appears(IMHO) you are in the minoritiy now in you views of the co.!!!
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BTW- since you began posting, stock is up 800% and it appears(IMHO) you are in the minoritiy now in you views of the co.!!!
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Yea, it’s to 40 cents from 5 cents.
So technically, you are correct.
It’s still a penny stock that Mel Karmazin drove in to the ground from a high of well over 5 dollars.
Believe what you want.
Tim
Nice work! Didn’t address factual comments!!! Because you can’t!!! If you have read any of my posts, there is always alittle bit of skeptcism towards the company. As a management, they are way behind the curve. I hope that they are able to recover. If not, then they will be shown the door.
If you havent noticed, they are less than 9 months from completing merger, worst economic times in history(Obama, not me), worst credit market of all time, and they are cont to grow even in these times. IMO, it is time for you to wake up and smell the coffee!!!
SiriusXM is here to stay, at least for the next 5-10 years.
You claim that you want them to succeed, but your every action dictates otherwise!!!
Have a great weekend!
Oh BTW, it is actually up 1000%(FACT)
Quite frankly, I am amazed that this company is doing as well as it is. I don’t even know exactly how well that is, but I do know that they are still around, I still listen everyday, and I still don’t, and won’t listen to terrestrial radio. Most Americans still know nothing about satellite radio, and those that do don’t know much. As far as I’m concerned, there are millions of potential subscribers out there that are ripe for the picking. Think about it – we live in a country where it is possible for a 16 year old precocious, no talent, can’t sing/can’t act, voice like Kathleen Turner, little wise ass “kid” (this is no kid – more like a cocky, street wise adult who skipped right over childhood) can become a huge star worth over a billion dollars. Yes, I’m refering to the greatest anomoly of all time – Miley Cyrus! If the success of this ordinary, irritating and obnoxious brat doesn’t give hope to every talentless, not particularly intelligent, 3 years from waiting tables at Red Lobster delusional youngster (and their meddling white trash parents), then nothing will! And people wonder why refuges head over here on rafts and pieces on driftwood! The reason…. because the American public has NO notion whatsoever of what is good, what is quality, what constitutes talent and when they are being conned or not. I’ve said it before, and it’s true – this country eats crap, watches crap on TV, drives crappy cars, listens to crappy radio, loves crappy movies (Hanna Montana – The Movie… No.1 at the box office. You’ve got to be shittihg me!).
The point is this: if this kind of nonsense is possible, then how can anybody count out satellite radio from becoming successful? Marketing, hype, image and perception has turned this Miley Cyrus character into the biggest star on the planet. Her concerts sell out in minutes; faster than the biggest rock stars and most accomplished entertainers in the world. How in the hell is this possible? Very simple – the most ignorant, gullible, conformist group of people in the world are eager and waiting to be manipulated and controlled into doing whatever TV, clever marketing, and the 24/7 hype machine tells them to do. Most pepole don’t have a mind of their own – they are like putty in the hands of any advertiser that knows what they are doing, that knows how to play the game.
The question is – why isn’t Sirius/XM in the game, taking advantage of all these realities? Could it be that satellite radio is too good? Could it be that it isn’t crappy enough? I sure hope this isn’t the case; I don’t want to see them dumb down the programming anymore than they already have. The thing is, satellite radio DOESN’T have to appeal to the masses to be successful. What they need to do is make every effort to appeal to the millions of people who have not yet subscribed who do care about quality, do aspire for excellence as opposed to mediocrity, who do want to enhance their lives and make their daily existence more pleasurable. People who can appreciate the value of satellite radio and realize that it is worth paying for.
If Sirius/XM makes the effort to FINALLY introduce their product to the citizens of the United States, there is no telling what the response might be. It doesn’t have to be overwhelming, but I would be surprised if a decent, sustained Ad campaign – with some commercials on TV – didn’t bring in several million more subscribers. There are 350 million people in this country, for God’s sake! We are talking about adding a very small percentage.
Satellite radio is for people who are dissatisfied with crap. Management better get it through their heads that this is a different breed they are dealing with, and make the necessary moves to appease the devoted members of this niche group. That’s it in a nutshell – advertise AND treat the subscribers well. Just think – they have all these people working at Sirius/XM, and not one of these masterminds has thought of this magic formula! PS – They could start by improving the DREADFUL customer service.
QUOTE
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Satellite radio is for people who are dissatisfied with crap. Management better get it through their heads that this is a different breed they are dealing with, and make the necessary moves to appease the devoted members of this niche group. That’s it in a nutshell – advertise AND treat the subscribers well. Just think – they have all these people working at Sirius/XM, and not one of these masterminds has thought of this magic formula! PS – They could start by improving the DREADFUL customer service.
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As a 3 unit subscriber, this sums it up for me very well.
Excellent post.
SteveO
AGREED 100% From a delusional fanboy!
It’s ironic that a professional and intelligent conversation can be had about a company that is “dumbing it down” to an insultingly obvious level. 2 Howard Stern channels and no education channels? The only thing going for people with near normal IQs and above is NPR and last time I checked it was coming in quite clear in analog. It’s only a matter of time until internet radio is available in cars and then we’ll have 1000s of channels that aren’t catering to the big media conglomerates. I’m returning my gifted Sirius equipment before opening it b/c I’ve heard enough about grading Obama’s fist 100 days in office on CNNMSNBCFOX Cable TV. No need to hear it on my way to work.
This company is dead in the water unless is starts considering the average IQ is 100 and not 3, and there are only so many idiots (I am an optimist believe or not). People are getting use to information being readily available and would likely enjoy utilizing their increasing time spent in traffic to parse through it.