Stifel Lowers Estimates – Sets $1.25 Price Target
Stifel analyst Kit Springs issued a report today in which he lowered estimates in the subscriber and revenue category, but maintained a BUY rating with a price target of $1.25. Springs notes several factors in his report, but mostly ties the lowered guidance to weak auto sales. According to Spring car sales will come in at 13.5 million for the year rather than 13.8 million.
Among items that could be perceived as positive was the NPD retail sales which were not down as far as Springs anticipated. While September sales were down 7%, and quarter sales were down 10% it was a better number than the 25% down that the analyst was anticipating.
The Stifel buy rating with a target price to $1.25 is based on a 5 year DCF with 11.4% WACC and 7.6x terminal EBITDA multiple. Spring states, “100% downside seems like an increasingly likely scenario. That said, we see several multiples of upside possible should SIRI refinance successfully, potentially realistic should churn remain solid.”
Springs Notes The Following:
For 3Q08 we estimate pro forma:
- Net subscriber additions 321k vs. 435k previously
- Self pay churn 1.76% vs. 1.75%
- Revenues of $618.9MM vs. $619.1MM due to lower OEM additions
- EBITDA of ($76MM) vs. ($86.2MM) as subscribers are initially dilutive
- EPS of ($0.08), unchanged
For the full year 2008:
- Net subscriber additions 1.76MM vs. 2.17MM
- Self pay churn 1.74%, unchanged
- Revenues of $2.418B vs. $2.419B
- EBITDA of ($313MM) vs. (349MM)
- EPS of ($0.32) vs. ($0.33)
For the full year 2009:
- Net subscriber additions 1.99MM vs. 2.13MM
- Self pay churn 1.84% vs. 1.81%
- Revenues of $2.65B vs. $2.71B
- EBITDA of $253MM vs. $293MM
- EPS of ($0.15) vs. ($0.13)
Position – Long SIRI
frigginregan thake that money and buy something else, I bought something else and I am much happier.I will keep my 5500 shares of siri untill I hear of a RS.
there are some good stocks out there at a discount, take advantage of them. 2 years from now you will be happy when you turn that 4 grand into 8 or 10 rather than have lost it in SIRI
I am not being a basher or bitter just step back at give this a good look.
i also bought some LVLT and ambac ABK
good night guys..gotta go now
I hear what you are saying BklynSal. But half that 4 grand is IN Sirius right now. I’d have to sell here to get it and then combine it with the 2 grand I have in cash.
I KNOW there are a TON of stocks out there. I’ve been salivating at the opportunity of being in them.
Believe it or not, I have NEVER lost money like this in a stock before or have been trapped in a stock like this before. These last 20 months have been BRUTAL. Absolutely BRUTAL.
All I want to do now is SALVAGE the shares that I own in Sirius…and it’s why I am so strongly against a RS.
Yes, I understand what you are saying about there being other stocks. I could literally throw a dart at a stock chart and make more money then I’ve made with Sirius.
ALL I want to do is to GET OUT of this stock as close to break even as possible.
It is THIS reason and this reason ALONE that I am considering taking the “risk” of throwing the 2 grand into Sirius on a down day if it reaches .25 cents again.
My thinking is that by averaging down this one last time, I would knock my break even point from $2.50 a share to $1.25 a share.
I KNOW it’s a risk. But after being beaten up in this stock and the FCC delay and all that crap….I think I could stomach one last throw of the dice.
If it comes up snake eyes, I only lose 2 grand. All the other money I put into Sirius I’ve accepted losing a long time ago.
But if I throw a “7” and Sirius refinances it’s debt without a RS or massive dilution, then my chances of getting out at least at break even go up DRAMATICALLY.
I’m still thinking about it. To be honest, I’m waiting on some checks and have a few more weeks of work before I can chuck the whole 2 grand in. Money is tight right now.
But if the timing is right, I am seriously considering doing this.
Besides voting NO on the RS, it will be my LAST attempt to affect my future with this stock. Everything else is out of my hands.
Heres a clip from that Burt Reynolds Dom Deluise move “The END” which i mentioned before. Funny stuff.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=.....re=related
We Sirius Longs are near the “End” too. We have only to wait for Dec 18th when the Reverse Split is going to be voted on and then February when the debt is due. Soon we will know, and the pain will be over.
There are 3 scenarios for us Longs:
1) The 1 for 50 Reverse Split gets approved, and we lose all our shares.
2) Sirius declares BK and we lose all our shares.
3) Mel announces that Sirius has refinanced it’s debt, and a RS or massive dilution is no longer necessary.
Friggen – You know you want to do it, so pull the trigger, you may not get the results you want in two days, but in 6 months you will. Average in and hang on! Look at it this way, if you don’t and the stock gets back to 2 bucks, you will need to be medicated for the rest of your life.
Actually if the stock gets back to $2….I will be close enough to break even with the shares I already have, so I’ll be happy. TRUST ME.
Again…I am going to wait to see if it dips into the 20s again on a bad day perhaps. Then I won’t hesitate to “pull the trigger” as u say.
😉
I’ve been thinking this for days now & I can’t believe the level on this board of the insistence & obsession with getting our $ back in our investment in Sirius by averaging down as if the $ made if this stock goes up is any different or more valuable than the $ that could be made somewhere else.
I’m guilty of it also, because I don’t want to admit I made a mistake and wasted time and $, but our pride and stubbornous is to our detriment.
Is it also possible that we all believe that the returns to be made here will be at such a higher level than anywhere else in this market ?
We all dream of the big move to 2.50, now 1.25 or 1.50 by averaging down with more shares.
This is sick irrational behavior. We don’t want to take the $ we have left and put it somewhere else for the fear of missing out on a run higher, a run we have been waiting for, for 3 years, willing to keep sinking more $ when we know there will still be massive dilution for Feb converts and a good risk this will go to 0.
This is sadomasichism.
If I could only be back to what my account was worth on Labor Day, when this stock was at 1.40. I had lost so much so quick, like all of us after such high expectations of seeing a big pop on merger approval, but still hanging on the hope that Mel had something miraculous to say Post Labor Day.
I though it was devastating then and now look at me, look at us because of all of the above. Now what, put more $ in and ride this to 20 cents. Then what, well it can’t go any lower & meanwhile some other stocks are making some sizeable gains.
Friggin gave me great advise to put my $ somewhere else and I will try in the coming week and if I’m successful to add $ to my account, I might just stay away from Siri, but keep a close eye on it and may just look to pick spots to buy in if it takes a big hit lower, but I’ll be in, then out.
As much as I’d like to say, let me leave the balance of my $ in and close my eyes and pray for the next 15 months and still 950 M in debt to go, I would have to be absolutely insane to continue to do this.
Friggin gave me the best advise a few days back and I am I trying to resist the lure of this stock. Maybe we all should and take our lives back.
You want to hear something ironic or eery, well here it is. Everyone knows who Joe Clayton is and his role in Sirius, it’s demise and how many shares he sold on the open market robbing us in the last 5 years. Well I had invested in Global Crossing (Joe Clayton was the CEO) back in the tech wreck days at around $12, lost a good 10 G’s when they went BK and wound up filling out those class action suit forms to get a few $’s back and waited almost 2 years.
I received my check from GC for about $250 on the friday that the FCC approved this merger and thought it was amazing timing & a good omen. Can you believe the timing.
Do I need to say anymore ?
Clayton is, was and always will be a crook and is an evil son of a bitch. He may have cursed Sirius and then his face pops up on Orbicast getting a seat on the board or Dish Network and the speculation began – does this mean Dish migt buy Sirius ?
What a an absolutute nightmare this stock is, yet we all have hope of a MIRACLE, with the devil Joe Clayton still lurking.
I TOTALLY hear you SXMinvester. And I don’t want to sound like a hypocrite….but I am torn. Is it masochistic? Yup. But is it also a good strategy? Possibly.
I’ve got 10,000 shares right now. If I “averaged down” ONE last time at .25 cents for $2,000 worth of Sirius, I could nearly DOUBLE my shares with 18,000.
YES. I curse all my previous “averaging down” attempts. But all those times I threw in ALOT more money for ALOT less shares.
At this point…my thinking is that if I’m gonna F UCK up one last time…this ain’t a bad way to go out….cause the upside is a potential doubling of my profits should Sirius make even a small run….and the downside is I’m only out another 2 grand.
The good news is that if I DO pull the trigger one last time, I won’t have THAT long to wait to find out if my gamble paid off. With the 3Q earnings report coming up, we’ll find out some info that will indicate a direction(either up or down). Then a month later on December 18th we have the infamous shareholder meeting where we will find out if the dreaded Reverse Split is a Yeah or a Nay. And finally by February, we will find out if the debt refinancing gets done and if it is favorable to shareholders or not.
So…unlike waiting for the merger that ended up putting us thru the ringer for 18 friggin months….we will only have to wait 3 more months to find out if our gamble paid off.
This is my last chance/hope to get some of my Sirius money back. After this, I will either write the whole thing off as a colossal loss and move on OR throw a little party.
YES I could be investing in OTHER equities. But the thing is I don’t have alot of cash on hand right now. My ideal trading/investing amount has always been $20,000. With 20 grand I was always able to make a NICE chunk of change trading and sometimes investing long term. It was all working so beautifully until I broke every one of my rules with Sirius. At least I will have learned something should this all end badly.
To think of how much I could be making in this market with my initial 20 Gs. Argh! Hell…I’d kill just to have 10 grand right now(which I did a few months ago).
Sadly I don’t have anywhere NEAR that amount now. I’m almost at $2 grand cash….and if I sold my Sirius shares now I would ALMOST have $4 grand. Yes I will kick myself ONE last time should I NOT sell and then lose it all.
Call it stubbornness. Call it stupidity.
But…it’s like I’ve gone so far to the wall with this…might as well see it to the bitter end. At least thats my philosophy.
Last time I “averaged down” was at $1 for $4,000. If I had THAT money back perhaps I wouldn’t be thinking this way. 6 grand is alot closer to 10 grand than 2 is.
LOL. look at me. I’m like a friggin drug addict trying to rationalize his addiction. LOL.
I’ve got a “SIRIUS” problem.
But again…we are soooooo close to an end here. Pretty soon it will all be over. We will KNOW what our fate will be within 3 short months.
If we get thru this 3 months without the RS or MASSIVE dilution AND the refinancing is favorable….THEN I’d be content and confident to wait it out for as long as it takes. Then all that will be left is my original faith in the product…without ALL this other CRAP that has gunked up the works and fed the short machine for so long.
Will the shorts and bashers still be out there? Sure. But if ALL these issues which have been their MAIN talking points the last few years are REMOVED…I will be able to breath alot easier.
So this is where we are. The REAL moment of truth. I KNOW we all thought that moment was going to be when the FCC finally approved the merger. I’m still hurting from that disappointment.
But this is REALLY it. In 3 short months it’ll either be the END of hope for longs….OR the END of hope for the shorts. We will KNOW soon.
And it’s for this reason and what I’ve been thru the last 3 years that I am willing to throw down ONE last time.
If a miracle happens, gaining another 8,000 shares on the cheap will look like the BEST move I could have made….and will all but ensure that I reach my 20 grand minimum again. If I can reach that amount, I’ll be a happy man. I would have no guilt about cashing out then. And if GOD is smiling on me…LOL….it will happen while so many of the OTHER stocks I’ve been looking at these last 3 years are still down.
Of course it could go the other way too…and I lose it all. Like I said, I’ve already gone thru the emotional pain of losing it as I watched it drop from $6 to .20 cents over the last 3 years….so losing another $2,000 on top of it all won’t feel that bad.
Then I could start over. Begin to save all over again.
OR I could cash out right now and start over with close to 4 grand.
This is my dilemma.
One I share with MANY a long.
For example…a couple of the stocks I was watching this last week were LVLT and ESLR.
If I had that 4 grand I could have put it into LVLT and doubled my money to 8 grand in less than a week.
Coulda woulda shoulda.
I just want this Sirius nightmare to be over, so I can emotionally and financially let it go once and for all. EVERY other stock I’ve watched has given investors MANY MANY opportunities to cash out of. Sirius has gone nothing but down and stayed down. No pops for longs to get out. The only weapon we’ve had is to “average down” and hope to get closer to an out on any pop. But each time we think we hit a bottom, we drop lower. It has been the longest case of a falling knife that I’ve ever experienced!
Will the knife FINALLY hit the floor with a resounding THWACK! as Sirius goes to ZERO? Or will we FINALLY be able to catch the knife by the handle and stop this madness?
Between 6:30 last night and 7:48 this morning, friggin has posted his latest brain waves here 16 times. These incessant ramblings of small minds are turning this site into just another yahoo message board.
Look out your window, f. There’s a whole world out there. Get a life.
Tyler, does this site have an “Ignore” option?
Friggen. Thanks for the video. Had never seen the movie. Looks to be very funny. Can see the relationship to my siri purchases. lol.
Hey SXM, that was deep there in the beginning. I almost had to sign the declaration and go to Sunday meetings swearing to never ever go near a ticker with the letters siri.
Good luck to everyone. Friggen. Thanks for your posts enjoyed them all.
SXM. Wasn’t around for the Clayton years. Sounds like a real a-hole. He will get his too along with all the other crooks. If not in the public view their morality will get them in private……………………………
I woke up yesterday looking for LVS (Las Vegas Sands) because it was down 20% to $5 from high’s in the $ 140 range 1 year ago.
I’m sick to my stomach because I didn’t want to chase it at $6 early a.m., waiting for a pullback and it ended the day at $9, hitting highs of over 11 – 120 % jump at one point.
Ok, then afterhours last night, it traded & ended around 8.60, but figured I’d wait for the open and maybe get it a little cheaper. Well, it hit $13 early this a.m and now at $11.
Major major short squeeze and could hit $ 20 in a few weeks if credit markets open up.
Anyhow MGM had a similar move, but not as violent in past 3 days, so I decided to buy some shres of MGM because I think it’s a better brand and Las Vegas is not going away. This stock was $90 a year ago. Even if it just goes to $30 in coming months, which is still $60 below it’s high, it’s a double.
These 2 stocks are among the heaviest shorted stocks and the shorts are getting nervous and leaving in droves.
My point is that a $5 stock has gone up 150% in 2 days and you can make some $ while you wait for Sirius to continue the dilution. I missed the original move off bottom, but picked up 500 shares of MGM at 15.60 and hoping to make some dough back in other places as I keep my eye on Siri, so I can maybe take another stab if it goes to the low .20’s.
I’m not sure there will be another test of the DOW lows in the next few months, maybe again in Jan, but 8500 may be a good level on Dow now to hold and bounce off – my amateur opinion or gut feeling. Last week I was looking for 7200, but I don’t see that anytime soon. If Dow holds steady and doesn’t collapse, blue chip names should trend higher in coming weeks.
Wish me luck & keep an eye on these Vegas plays.
I’m not giving up on Siri, but need a break just for a few days.
LVLT went from 60 cents to 1.20 in a day. It will eventually go back to $2 – $3 as market improves. And I’d have NO fear of a RS.
Sirius is a nightmare. To be stuck in a stock this long is crazy.
If it wasn’t for the threat of a 1 for 50 RS I’d rest easier.
Another stock ESLR is up from $2.11 to nearly $3. And mark my words will be back to over $5 a share by the end of the year.
It’s not that I CLING to Sirius…I am STUCK in Sirius.
All of us need to decide if getting a posible 300% gain from here holding Sirius weighed against it possible getting cut in half again on dilution makes sense if select blue chips could rise 10-20% in the next few months with the market somewhat stabilizing.
I will likely gamble some more on Siri if it drops to .22 cents, but in the mean time I can’t sit stagnant watching stocks do 50% moves in a few days or a week.
I just watched VMW report great #’s, get hit down to $18 and run now over $30 in about 3 -4 days. Insane moves.
Even if shares in Siri are only worth 5k, you may be able to increase it in other places and come back with more $ if you desire,instead of stagnating. I wish i would have not been so in love and blinded by the product and service and used my $ other place sin the past 6 months and I wouldn’t have almost went broke and likely be much more well off.
I think I may have made a mental breakthrough here.
Now can I stay away from buying back in on a big dip to low .20’s ?
Where’s that dumba$$ Private Investor – what’s your call now genious?
Boy did my excitement of MGM change quick when I did a little reading up today that they are pricing an offering and have some big debt issues as well. I didn’t like the action and sold at 16.30, now it’s at 15.00 going towards the bell. I’ll wait out how this offering goes, phew…got out with $ 330 profit – whoopie.
That’s nothing to scoff at. That’s another 1000+/- shares of our beloved siri.
GetItStraight… My call is the same as it was the last 10 times I commented…. I think SiriusXm will go back up. I buy more shares because I think the stock is oversold.
Krypto1 –
I was addressing Private Investor unless you’re the same guy. People have a right to their own opinion. Some say up, some say down. That’s what makes a market.
When Private Investor blatantly told me that my opinion doesn’t mean sh!t then oh well for him. I just can’t stand people who bash other’s opinions and then themselves get proven wrong repeatedly.