Stifel analyst Kit Springs issued the following note on Sirius' Q4.
1st Look: 4Q Slight Beat Overall;Though ARPU Was Light
SIRI 4Q revenues were $250MM in line with our estimate of $250MM.
Overall churn was 2.3%: higher than our estimate of 2.2%, though in our opinion, the better measure is self-pay churn which was 1.6%, better than our 1.68% estimate.
ARPU was $10.05, far below our estimate of $10.61: reflecting the impact of rebates. ARPU before rebates and other was $10.19, slightly below our $10.25 estimate.
EBITDA loss was $107MM, slightly better than our $112MM estimate.
SAC per gross add was $90, slightly better than our estimate of $93.
Net loss was $0.11, a penny better than our estimate.
CFO was a positive $89MM, much better than our estimate of($0.9MM)
SIRI was free cash flow positive in 4Q at $75.9MM.
SIRI is not giving guidance until after its merger approval or rejection: We expect to reevaluate the stand alone business model based on lower ARPU offset by better free cash flow after the this mornings call at 8AMEST.
The merger with XMSR remains the key to near-term stockperformance.
Risks to Target Price Overall economic weakness, continuing deterioration in the retail channel,weak car sales, inability to obtain sufficient financing
Position - Long Sirius, XM