2014 has been an interesting year for investors in SiriusXM. We have seen a buyout offer from Liberty Media, seen the metrics that we have grown accustomed to shift to new meanings, and have seen the company shift from one that delivers bottom line growth to one that is seeking to show fundamental growth and value.
The Q2 conference call went well in terms of presentation. Much of the data given was also fairly positive, but, as with anything, the devil is in the details. The company did hit several records during the quarter, but also it is apparent that the driver of some positive performance is share buybacks. SiriusXM is in the middle of $6 billion worth of share repurchases.
From a valuation standpoint it is getting harder to see a price target above $4 per share in the next 6 to 12 months. This is the case even with the share buybacks in place. Certainly the dynamics can shift quickly, but the likelihood of that shift happening in the near term are not as high as looking at this company a year or more out. It is not that the company is not executing. The issue is that the growth curve may be flattening out a bit and that is simply not as sexy as seeing the growth curve continue to accelerate.
In many ways, with the shift in metrics better understood now, this quarters results offers the new baseline that we can now track to garner the level of performance. We want to see Churn holding at about 1.8%. We want to see Sac between $30 and $35. We want to see ARPU at around $12.40. These types of metrics are waht the street has traditionally sunk its teeth into to help measure performance. The subscriber metrics are now looked at from a new perspective. Now that the street can digest this, we can watch to see performance against expectations and get a handle on whether the company is able to navigate peaking growth in a manner that helps the bottom line. The share repurchase program is actually a bigger driver than anything else at this point in terms of what the street will assign value to.
I look at the most recent quarter as one that sets the stage for how this company is perceived in the year ahead. I am not looking for massive share price growth, but rather a tepid street response to the equity. Next quarter will be the telling quarter in how much the street appreciates the new SiriusXM.