SiriusXM Treads More Water
It is what it is. SiriusXM is not really moving up, nor is it moving down. The bright side at the moment seems to be that we are not in the $2’s. The fact that the equity has held the $3 line should give a bit of confidence that we are near the bottom. Even though things are not really pretty with the technicals, we can assess that the upside right now is far greater than the downside.
Now, with that being said, you should still keep $2.99 on your radar screen. If we see that touched, the road back up could be a long one. Even without touching the $2’s, the road to $3.50 will not be easy. At least it appears that the volume is settling down a bit.
Volume
Support and Resistance
Exponential Moving Average
here come 2.99
again if they are not buying back after sending out a press release about changing debt convenatns so they can be more unfettered to buy back then they are really incompetent
Spencer , thanks for your guidance … I’am amazed how you make your calls …. I just wish I traded the way you called them …LOL …… But still great work spencer ….. Johnnyblues
Spencer , what a day , I wonder if people who were on margin , because if this stock hit below $3 That they got scared as it got close to $3 … And that that they would have to cover if it hit below $3 ?? And sold out of fear of it going to below $3 … Just a thought … Johnnyblues
Spencer,
What do you expect the #s to look like for Q1. Specifically the Sub #s. Will we still see impact from the GM change?
Denco…
Sub numbers will not be pretty. We will be a bit above positive. Be ready for a very low number. In Q4 the number was negative. (38,000). We should now get the benefit of 1 quarters worth of trailing subs, but the impact will still be felt.
What specifically is still impacting the Q1 #s. Is it the Q3 GM paid promo subs that did not convert. This will affect net sub adds but not Self pay? Does the street know this will be a soft subQ or are we looking at negative reactions to the #s. What about all other #s including EPS, Rev, FCF, and Ebitda. Will any positives be realized this Q from the GM shift?
This Q being Q1 from the GM shift.
Denco….
In the past 100% of satellite radio equipped GM cars were counted as subs when the car was sold. Now 0% are counted as subs when the car is sold. The subs that convert will now be trailing by 3 months and will get counted only if the convert. Example
OLD
1,000 cars made – 800 have Sirius XM – 800 get counted as subs
New
1,000 cars made – 800 have sirius XM – 0 get counted as subs – in three months 40% of the 800 will become subs or 320.
In the old method you would see 800 subs counted at the time of sale. In the new method you will see only 320 counted and 3 months later.
I do not have my data with me, but lets assume Q4 was about 650,000 GM cars.The satellite equipped ones would be 520,000. 40% will become self paying. That means that GM will give the current quarter 208,000 subs instead of about 520,000.
Last Q1 the company did 453,000 subscribers in Q1. Auto sales in Q1 last year and this year were about identical. If you take 300,000 off of the table, the number will be about 153,000 net additions in the quarter.
Positives from the GM shift are more long term and will be seen in lower revenue share of the applicable vehicles.
Thanks for the response Spencer.
Didn’t the company see non converted paid promo subs affect the net of paid promo every Q. For example Lets say GM contributed 520 subs as in your example in in Q3. In Q4 208K will go on to become self pay subs. What happens to the other 312K that did not convert? Are they then taken out of the Q4 GM adds of lets say the same 520K……520K less 312K that did not convert = the same 208K? Where one is self pay and net in the same Q, the old way was net sub adds in current Q and then converts go to self pay but do not affect net sub in the subsequent Q. I hope this makes sense….just trying to get a things straight in my mind. Simply, what happened to the non converts from the previous Q of paid promo that we will no longer have to deal with because they will all go to self pay and net sub adds at the same # if they convert now with the shift.
This does not affect churn correct because churn is based on self pay subs?..?
If these non converted paid promo sub adds are not part of churn then they still have to be netted out each Q from the total net sub adds?..?
Seems that the only month left to be netted out is paid promo subs from September 2013 Q3. July and August should have netted out in Q4. The paid promo subs from Sept. will either convert or not in Q1.
Frear on the Q4 CC stated that the decline in net sub adds was a one time decline due to the OEM shift. Is this accurate?….and does it support the fact that for the entire period of the GM deal the net adds were always netted out from the non converts so the actual benefit to net adds was the net of the 2 Qs (current and previous Q) and not really the current Qs paid promo # counted?…
Denco….
The deal shifted in Q4. A car bought on September 30th was counted as a sub. A car bought on October 1st was not.
October cars will see conversions in January and February. November cars in February and March. December cars in March and April.
Old deal….every single solitary satellite radio equipped car counted as a subscriber the moment it was bought.
New Deal….Not a single car is counted as a sub. The radios are ONLY counted if the consumer converts to self pay.
old deal…Those that did not elect to become self pay simply fell off of the rolls (not even counted as churn)
new deal…Those that elect to become self pay fall off of the rolls (not even counted in churn)
The delta here is gross additions. The old del provided over twice as many gross additions.