Readers here can not say that they did not see this coming. The technicals were ugly, and there was every signal that the quarterly call would not be a home run. I wrote about it, warned about it, and wrote some more. Now here we are, at $3.43 wondering what it will take to get this stock to test $4.00 again. The answer to that question is rather simple. We need to see uncertainty removed and we need to see a cohesive investor front that aligns Liberty Media and minority shareholders.
Today we closed just below my short term downside target, and even traded below my mid term target. The equity went as low as $3.35 today, which does not offer a lot of comfort. The only real support below $3.43 is at about $3.25. There is light support at $3.41, but because that was broken intraday, it is a precarious support level.
The EMA's remain ugly and we now have a massive wall of resistance at about $3.63. In the near term, getting above $3.53 is going to be a challenge in and of itself. With the conference call over, and a three week wait until we see Liberty speak, there is a waiting game happening. Wunerlich to a bold step today, and it may not be long before other analysts weigh in. The sentiment on the street seems to be that if a deal does not get done, it will be a weight on the stock.
The volume today was very high on a down day. This downward move happened with authority. Do not ignore that. If we can hold the current line and see volume lighten up, the downside risk mitigates slightly. Watch the action closely. Right now everything is bearish. The catalyst that can change that is some positive news on this Liberty deal.
Support and Resistance
Exponential Moving Averages