Sirius XM: Show Me, Don’t Tell Me
In his recent interview with Mel Karmazin, David Faber of CNBC received a lot of negative feedback regarding Mel’s promise that Sirius XM would be free cash flow positive in 2009. I for one applaud him. For many years Sirius and XM stock traded based on the unfulfilled promises of cash flow break-even, which were to come “very soon,” or “next year.”
The premise seemed simple enough. There were supposed to be enough fixed costs in SDARS that the addition of millions of subscribers and the addition of hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue should lead to prosperity. Each and every quarter brought with it however, higher revenues together with higher operating costs and expenses. With each passing quarter, cash flow break-even has only inched its way towards reality.
Sirius XM very well may be free cash flow positive in the near future, but the street doesn’t seem to care and to tell you the truth, neither do I. The company has cried wolf once too often. No one believes it anymore, and the sheep are being slaughtered.
I happen to be one of those sheep. In my opinion, there are certain events that are going to happen near-term which will be positive for Sirius XM shareholders, but I don’t think it will be enough. I have heard from Mel regarding the number of subscribers being second only to Comcast. That’s an advertiser selling point. It would appear to me that the near-term plans to improve the balance sheet are well under way. Higher ad revenue and cost cutting seem to be of most importance.
But can the shareholders afford to wait? I doubt it. As the short sellers on Wall Street continue to manipulate the stock and spread rumors that go unnoticed by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the stock continues to make new lows. With every new low comes yet another doom and gloom article by the Motley Fool or the Street.com, or statement by Jim Cramer. Investors are fearful that they will ride the stock down from 1.50 to 1.00, only to see a rise back to 1.40 on any news. The company is giving no real reasons to own the stock right now.
Recently, XM announced a buyback of some of its outstanding notes, and the street had no reaction. In my opinion , a common stock share buyback program is imperative at this point. If there are in fact 400 million dollars in synergies going forward, how about putting 100 – 200 million of that up to prove it. Let’s face it, if the company believes that the stock is undervalued, would it not make sense to buy the stock for the company treasury at this low price? After all they just lent out hundreds of millions of shares for UBS and Morgan Stanley to short against. It would also be nice to see some insiders like Mel and other board members put up a few more dollars of their own money to raise investor confidence. I believe the company MUST do this, and do it soon to salvage what is left of the stock price and raise confidence that a bottom has in fact been made.







I don’t see any WIDE SPREAD articles out there
condemming the damage that Jim Cramer’s
antics did to the shareprice !!!!!!
He should be held accountable for causing the
selloff which resulted in Sirius having to
close the deal at a lower price than anticipated.
Can Sirius Sue CNBC and Cramer on behalf of the
company and shareholders for that travesty ??
Quick Poll: Who is right? Brandon or Tyler?
http://siriusbuzz.com/forum/sh......php?t=614
FWIW, profitability does not have to happen before a stock-buyback program can start… however, positive cashflow does. The $400 million in synergistic expense savings is great — but that doesn’t necessarily translate into $400 million in new positive FCF. You cannot buyback stock on profits — you can only do it with positive FCF. A company can have huge amounts of profits — but negative cashflow and still go bankrupt; but at the same time, a company could have negative earnings and positive cashflow — and stay in business for a long time.
Here are the numbers:
With the completion of the merger and XM’s mandatory debt repurchase — I estimate that XM has approximately $220 million in cash on hand; plus the additional $150 million in GM credit facility available. That combines to $370 million in total liquidity. (Including refinancing fees) I came to that figure by adding…
$183.8 million cash as of 6/30/08
+ $105.4 million left over from debt refinancing
+ $150 million GM credit facility
- $69 million in refinancing fees
= $370 million total liquidity
For Sirius, they ended Q1 with $252 million cash and had approximately ($40 million) in FCF during Q2 (total guess). That would leave them with perhaps $212 million in total liquidity.
Added together, the combined company has approxiately $582 million in total liquidity. If you turn around and spend $400 million of that on a stock buyback program — that would leave the company with less than $200 million in liquidity to operate the company on. And Sirius will easily need that much in the coming 18 months for their satellite replacement program (CapEx).
There is no cash for share buybacks… not now. That will not take place until 2010 (maybe) or 2011 (more likely) at the earliest.
——
They do not need to buy back $500M shares to get moving in the right direction. I would be happy if the company bought back 1 share at this point.
Brandon is right – We need profit each and every quarter. Not just CFBE or a little CFP. we need decent profits each and every quarter. You know, like a real company
vaporgold
I think what’s being missed in catching up on the conversation above — is that people are equating the announcement that the company would have positive cashflow in 2009. What you’re missing is that that is BEFORE CapEx spending. Sirius is launching a new satellite in Q2 next year, plus in constructing another satellite to be delivered in 2010.
Their satellite replacement program is costing the company approximately $900 million in CapEx, spread out over several years. I estimate that they have paid approximately $250 million of this so far — leaving them with costs of $650 million yet to go… spread out over the next few years.
But the big cost is going to be that launch next year. I watch 3 of XM’s satellites get launched — and watch their costs. Sirius will be dropping well over $200 million in CapEx next year.
Plus the combined company must re-finance Sirius’ $300 million convertible Note (Due March 2009) and XM’s $400 million convertible Note (Due December 2009). On top of working out a deal to extend (if not refinance too) XM’s expiring bank credit facility, which is another $350 million (Due May 2009). This can be extended, but the others will need to be refinanced… to a tune of $700 million.
Announcing a plan is good… yes. However, they have to have cash available to do it. The Street knows this and would see right through a plan if it is too aggressive.
With $582 million on-hand and the need for to burn at least $200 million on CapEx… not to mention all the costs in closing the merger going on right now and the FCF burn going on during the rest of 2008… this is not the time for share buybacks. Especially when they’re going to be issuing at least $700 million in new debt in the next 18 months. The Street would see it as increasing the debt to buy back shares (for a company that is already greatly levered).
——
jdare77
This company needs every dollar it has right now… it’s still burning cash for at least the next 18 months.
A company that has negative FCF and continues to keep issuing new (even if it’s refinanced) debt, should not be buying back stock. Not right now.
—-
Buyback with what? I don’t think that is the answer here. To get back on track we need new prodicts like receivers that get both services hanging on retail hooks and the content needs to be merged. Then advertise and grow. If you got hurt by the stock going down you must have sold. Why did you do that when the merger just happened? Were you expecting an instant pop? I didn’t expect it but I sure did want it. I think this company needs to get down to business then let’s see where the share price is. There are going to be many people trying to destroy this company funded, no doubt, by the NAB. They lost but they are bitter old pricks who will stop at nothing. I do owe them a great debt for letting me know how good satrad is and will be. Their fear taught me that. I am not buying into all the negative sentiment that is festering everyplace like a biblical plague. I see the potential and hear it every time I turn on the receiver in my car.
Tyler, LOL, I just read your “response”… I guess we’re on the same page because I just posted the same thing here.
Brandon,
I love your articles, your enthusiasm and your dedication to Sirius/XM and the website. However I disagree with you on the stock Buy-Back at this time. Its way too early in the process to think about this yet. I would much prefer Mel to buy a million shares on the open market, that would provide a tremendous boost to us tortured longs. Peace to you and Tyler.
Homer, I do not disagree on the fundementals or technicals of how to run a company. I’m trying to find a way to show the investors that there is hope.
CNBC, Cramer, and various other news sources have driven this company down on negative news that was for the most point always known. Alot of the “news” wasn’t even news. And what bothers me the most about the recent run on media…whenever a positive story was posted, the street, cnbc, Cramer, or all of the above had 2 negative stories ready to run….
There is a lot that is misunderstood about the past few weeks right now… the best you can do is turn off your computer or sell calls and make a buck off of it.
Read the articles, they’re written to make the read think that XM issued $1.2 billion in MORE debt and that Sirius sold and rasised shares worth $350 million in additional capital — and that the two have $1.1 billion in maturing debt next year… I’d run away if I were a prospective investor too.
What was missed is that XM bought back $1.1 billion of OLD debt with the placement above and the Sirius $350 million in shares was a loan program used by Hedge Funds who have to give it back; and finally, Sirius and XM do have to refinance $700 million in maturing debt next year — but the credit facility can be extended. Not as bad when you look at this way? Well none of the financial writers were able to figure it out…
…hopefully Karmazin and company can explain it next week a little more clearly to them.
One side note I just noticed… XM and Sirius previously traded hugely over-valued, when compared to their Book Value (P/B Ratio). Sirius, for example, had a book value of ($0.56), while they traded at $2; while XM’s was ($3.43) and they traded at $10.
The current Pro-Forma Book Value is approximately $1.62 — and the stock is trading at $1.46. In other words, it is undervalued… for the first time ever. I wonder how many on the Street actually looked at the Pro-Forma condensed financials of the company filed last week?
Given the fact that the Street had routinely overvalued this sector as individual companies — the fact that is undervalued as a merged company is interesting. Interesting because, if they can demonstrate some of what they’re claiming… then this undervaluation will likely correct quickly.
—-
Brandon, the thing I don’t get about this article other than the share buyback which makes no sense at all is why you have changed your tune as if to say that you expected cash flow as soon as the companies were merged. It just doesn’t make sense.
To me, this whole article is you bitching about 1.50 share price.
Also homer,
Do you really think anyone values this on book value?
The apropriate metrics should be a multiple of cash flow (at least ~20 times cash flow for a growing company), or EV/EBITDA of at least 10 (again for a growing company).
If you think the stock can generate only 200 million in free cash flow in 2010 then that would warrant the current price. That’s really the only way I can justify this price here… No growth beyond 2010.
If you think Sirius XM can generate 1 billion in cash flow excluding 1 time items by 2013 then that implies a market cap of ~20 billion compared to 4 currently. Then just discount that to today at whatever discount rate and appropriate risk factors and you have a price today. Unless you think that all americans are going to ride their bikes to work and the take rate is going down and churn up then sirius is worth more than they are today.
In my opinion they are priced in a worst case scenario currently. Can anyone think of any more bad news other than they aren’t getting their synergies?
SI…
I am very concerned with what I percieve to be an attack on my stock. I’ve never backed down from a fight and I don’t intend to start doing so now.
How is it possible that the company can buy back debt, yet not have money to buy back shares?
Buying 100,000,000 in stock back at 1.50 permits the companies books to grow as the stock price grows. If the stock does go to the 4.00 merrill is calling for, then sirius increaes its value by 300,000,000.
Sirius must not sit back and let these market manipulators make bk allegations without a single offering of defense.
Brandon,
If you buy back 200 million in debt then you are automatically forcing those people to cover the shares they shorted against it so it serves a dual purpose.
I understand you wanting to do that but I think it’s wiser to pay down debt so that people don’t get parts of your company at a discount and inflate the share count when they convert.
Also, you avoid interest and you have to pay down your debt at some point… I agree with homer and tyler about debt over shares…
So basically everyone else is of the opinion that Sirius should just sit back and let the manipulators turn Sirius into a penny stock. Do you really think the NAB controlled media is not behind such things as “Howard Stern Laid Off” Do you think they MIGHT still be playing the game..
If you don’t subscribe to that theory and are under the misguided belief that terrestrial radio will now lay down and die, your opinion then is to wait until the stock goes much higher before buying…How does that make sense? Why would anyone wait for a stock to go up before buying it? It needs to be done.
Brandon,
The Howard Stern article was a satire news article, wasn’t it. That shit happens all the time and I don’t think anyone has paid attention to that, but I understand where you are coming from.
We do need analysts to come out in defense of this stock on Monday to at least get it above $2 for now until Mel & Co speak on Thursday.
Margin calls are out of control right now on XM converts to Siri.
Mel MUST buy on Monday – 2 million shares at market to show his conviction and beliefs, more than words !
If it’s his $ again, then it will have a huge impact, even though it’s not many shares in the grand scheme of things.
I sent him a personal e-mail to plead for him to do it to save this stock from the continued free fall. We need an injection before Thursday and it needs to happen early Monday !!