Sirius XM: Show Me, Don’t Tell Me
In his recent interview with Mel Karmazin, David Faber of CNBC received a lot of negative feedback regarding Mel’s promise that Sirius XM would be free cash flow positive in 2009. I for one applaud him. For many years Sirius and XM stock traded based on the unfulfilled promises of cash flow break-even, which were to come “very soon,” or “next year.”
The premise seemed simple enough. There were supposed to be enough fixed costs in SDARS that the addition of millions of subscribers and the addition of hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue should lead to prosperity. Each and every quarter brought with it however, higher revenues together with higher operating costs and expenses. With each passing quarter, cash flow break-even has only inched its way towards reality.
Sirius XM very well may be free cash flow positive in the near future, but the street doesn’t seem to care and to tell you the truth, neither do I. The company has cried wolf once too often. No one believes it anymore, and the sheep are being slaughtered.
I happen to be one of those sheep. In my opinion, there are certain events that are going to happen near-term which will be positive for Sirius XM shareholders, but I don’t think it will be enough. I have heard from Mel regarding the number of subscribers being second only to Comcast. That’s an advertiser selling point. It would appear to me that the near-term plans to improve the balance sheet are well under way. Higher ad revenue and cost cutting seem to be of most importance.
But can the shareholders afford to wait? I doubt it. As the short sellers on Wall Street continue to manipulate the stock and spread rumors that go unnoticed by the Securities and Exchange Commission, the stock continues to make new lows. With every new low comes yet another doom and gloom article by the Motley Fool or the Street.com, or statement by Jim Cramer. Investors are fearful that they will ride the stock down from 1.50 to 1.00, only to see a rise back to 1.40 on any news. The company is giving no real reasons to own the stock right now.
Recently, XM announced a buyback of some of its outstanding notes, and the street had no reaction. In my opinion , a common stock share buyback program is imperative at this point. If there are in fact 400 million dollars in synergies going forward, how about putting 100 – 200 million of that up to prove it. Let’s face it, if the company believes that the stock is undervalued, would it not make sense to buy the stock for the company treasury at this low price? After all they just lent out hundreds of millions of shares for UBS and Morgan Stanley to short against. It would also be nice to see some insiders like Mel and other board members put up a few more dollars of their own money to raise investor confidence. I believe the company MUST do this, and do it soon to salvage what is left of the stock price and raise confidence that a bottom has in fact been made.

Real people are getting hurt….I reccomended this piece of shit to my twin sister and since then i reiterated the assesion that this is going to happen and we will make some equity….I have never in my life seen a situation….{by design) go so badly and my relationship with my twin has been damaged. Orbitcast holds major resposibitity in this….And are you fuckin telling me that there isnt one big surprise from mel fuckin karmazin….Not one in 17 months….I really have lost soo much money in this i dont know what to do….And the institutional vultures are just eating it up…and are dumping those 350 million in shares!!!!Dont tell me that they aren’t
I CAN TELL YOU THIS RIGHT NOW….IF THIS COMPANY GOES BANKRUPT IN ONE WEEK….I WILL BE FILING A LAWSUIT AGAINST UBS AND MERRIL LYNCH FOR DEPLOYING THIS SCAM AND DESTROYING TWO COMPNANIES….MAKE NO MISTAKE
Great article. You said it better than I. Mel has been giving to much lip service this week. Thursday, in my opinion, is the make or break conference. If he does not line up his ducks on Thursday, we investors are doomed.
This, is the first “real” article I have read regarding shareholder extinction. Thank You.
The more the price goes down, the more I will buy. The more pain we feel now, the greater the reward will be for those who stay in. If you can find another stock for 1.46 that will quadruple in the next year then sell this and buy that. Otherwise, stop looking at the price… Unless you are a masochist… In which case, maybe you should spend your money in an S&M club.
I don’t know how you can advocate a share buyback before the company earns even one red cent. That makes no sense to me.
As for those that have lost money (including me) you have a choice, ride it out or sell and move on. But its silly to blame Mel or this company. Honestly, the mistakes that were made were not Mel’s- i.e. over paying for content, etc. Mel is doing everything he can to get this stock and company back on track. Merger is a major part of that plan and he got it done.
Brandon,
Does Mel have any legal recourse against Cramer or CNBC?
I am beginning to believe people on the inside (SIRI/XM) are in contact with big investors, and Short sellers. It is hard for me to continue to believe that Mel K has done nothing for investors that he has publicly stated.
Something about this deal is really stinking. I have lost a bundle, and will make a final decision during next week to run or not.
It may be time to accept that the stock was manipulated by those in the “know”.
As bad as I hate to watch them rant and rave because of my money, I may just accept and move on.
So now we have one more basher, “Sirius Buzz!” I understand what happened here. Apparently in your fragile emotional state your brain has shut down! We have a monopoly! Get it!? Many of the problems and costs you speak of were due to early startup expenses and promotions before Mel was CEO. The balance sheet has steadily improved since the arrival of Mel!
Many times I didn’t think Mel would pull it off. I think in this market, with all the forces that ran interference and the huge sum of money spent trying to stop this merger, that Mel did one hell of a good job.
This company has huge prospects. I wish we could have had a better financing deal but I fully understand how everything went together and the timing.
So congratulations to all that have the foresight to see through this current financial fog to a bright and profitable future.
For you and those that don’t know how to invest to preserve capital, or understand the history of why Sirius XM is where it is, you need to sell and get out. Why bash because your feelings are hurt and you overestimated the length of time it would take to see a return? This site is off reading list.
PS You can have Faber all day long. He is an insulting and disingenuous ass with a disdain for Mel and Sirius! Faber is just another unaccomplished jerk!
Chill out dude. It will work out; as long as SDARS works out. XM was buying back their debt with the money SIRI raised. Officers should be able to buy stock after earnings. (and after they examine XM’s books).
Lessons learned. Don’t but unprofitable companies. Short on mergers that involve stock, especially if there is debt involved.
ARRS is coming back after their merger with converts, but their profitable.
Joe Paul Clayton, ran a SIRI printing press churning out stock at $1. Until about this May, that worked out. He was determined not to take on debt, like what happened at his prior job at Global Crossing.
Mel should have used GS as his bank instead of ML and UBS. That was his mistake.
And he should have sold stock last year to raise money. He underestimated the power of GS.
Great Article Brandon-
You should forward all your articles to mkarmazin@siriusradio.com to make sure he is listening to you. I sent your article(s) to Mel Karmazin and of course no response from him. I agree that Karmazin, Donnelly, Greenstein, Frear and Meyer better start fighting back with more ammunition than advertising points or else they are in trouble. They should make sure the SEC is aware of the naked shorting in their stock, and have them enforce REG SHO for them. They also better show some confidence by buying some common stock themselves or in a buyback to show their confidence in the common not gettting wiped out. I own 15,000 shares in thr $4 range and am bothered by what is happening, but have no intention of selling even if it goes to zero.
I will however start to plan a lawsuit against those that have conspired to force this demise (if it happens) upon them. I think Mel Karmazin is very talented, but he better start doing more than talking as you said, and make things happen. If he would purchase another $10, $20 or $30 million of stock like he did way back when, believe me, many investors like myself would then feel confident to average down right now. I will not add another penny to this investment gone bad until Mel Karmazin buys some more himself. Remember, the Captain of the ship theory is he is going down with us.
I appreciate your efforts Brandon to keep us all informed, and to offer up opinions and ideas that make sense, now you only have to get Mel to listen to your ideas and opinions.
I am in it for the long haul. I bought more at $1.50 and will buy more if it drops to $1.00. So far I have been able to lower my avg cost to under $3.00, which is what I think the company is worth at this point, and a price we might see in the next year.
Whether to ride out this price drop out or sell is a personal choice. I do feel bad for people that for financial reasons can’t wait it out and have to sell at this price
Tyler/Brandon:
In my opinion Mel must buy 2 million shares on the open market Monday morning with his own $ to prove his conviction. He bought a few days after he was hired by Sirius and bought again a year or so later, but no inside or personal buys since then.
If he does this, I believe the stock would jump over $2 in minutes of the news breaking, reversing the short selling and margin call selling & bailing many out temporarily until CC on Thursday.
What do you think ?
JM, I agree. Mel made $32 million what would $2 mil mean to a guy that is worth at least $100 million.
rjr,
It’s not unusual for companies with positive cash flow but no actual earnings yet to have an buyback program to reduce the float. Makes more sense to do it when the price is low rather than when it takes off due to positive earnings. Its all a question of how much cash they have, how much they need to fund operations. One way or another excess cash is supposed to go back to the shareholders.
Great! We can all debate this. For starters no one is more bullish on SiriusXm than I am. I am also very aware that the media is targeting Sirius. How many retraction articles were put out yesterday, after the damage was done? Did you see that post regarding Howard Stern being laid off? How about the numerous false posts regarding “Mel being investigated.”
There are people trying to drive this company into a nosedive through inuendo and propaganda. I am suggesting that Sirius MUST fight back NOW! Waiting for Q3 results to mount a counter attack is a bad idea. WE need immediate action.
Good Article. Right on the money.
This stock is Dead Money for years. I also agree with some of the other posters such as LS Larry. This stock will be shorted in the future for years to come thanks to Mel.
I also agree that the latest stock offering was a set up and only the big boys will make money when they decide to run it up, short it, run it up, short it again, and on and on for years.Exactly like it’s past performance.
The bottom line is this stock is no where until Sirius makes real profit each quarter and every quarter period. Services the monster debt they have, and begins buying back all the shares they have floated killing all the long term small investors of Sirius.
You can hype this stock all you want. But until this happens which will take at least three to four years and maybe longer, you are better off getting out as soon as you break even if you can and come back later.
Currently this company operates as a non-profit producing stock printing Pig.
Vaporgold
My break even point is $2.76 x 100,000 shares. As you can see, I’m out a large sum of money. Put the company up for sale so most of us can recoup some of our losses. I’ll be happy with $2.50 just to get out. I’m sure many are in my position or much worse.
Let everyone bash away! The lower the price goes the more I can buy. If you don’t need a quick buck then the share price is irrelevant right now. If you believed in this stock at $3 then at $1.50 it is a bargain. At .99 and under it will be a steal.
I wanted to be able to brag that I only bought SIRI at at the lowest possible price before it steadily went up. This point is long past for me and many others.
So now I am going to go for the bragging rights of having XXXXX amount more shares… which will be a lot more to brag about in a year or so.
I have been hoping for a stock buy back for about 2 months. I understand that a small buy back will be just a drop in the bucket, but I think many of you will agree we could use a few drops.
How about this scenario…
Announce with 3rd Quarter Announcement. This will have a few advantages..
1. Can still get in at 1.50 range
2. Momentum from announced synergies
3. Momentum from vastly improved balance sheet
4. Momentum with guidence for 4th Quarter (Holiday).
They do NOT have to buy it back now…we all know they just need a “plan”
All they need to do is announce a plan to buy back something like..
1. 2009; 1,000,000 shares
2. 2010; 10,000,000 Shares
3. 2013; 100,000,000 shares
4. 2014; dilution reduced because the 183M shares are due back…
The crux of this problem is the 73M shares that will go for sale from time to time…I just don’t understand that if a positive cash flow tidal wave is going to hit us in 2009 and probably double in 2010….why are we printing more shares….
I think simple announcement of buy back sends the signals that drive the company up from the 1.50 range into the mid twos and maybe higher…
thoughts?