Yes, we had volume of 152 million shares, but in the end SiriusXM closed down to $3,77. In contrast, Liberty traded down to $139.54. In essence, the current swap ratio now sits at $3.53, well off of the pace that was announced to shareholders. If shareholders were angry with the offer before, they certainly are more angry today. That being said, the equity, on massive volume since the announcement, has not been able to step up above critical resistance points.
SiriusXM has settled down. It currently trades 24 cents above the Liberty offer. If you are a SiriusXM investor, the biggest thing you can route for is for Liberty media stock to appreciate.
If you look at the volume you will notice that it is now stepping down. We have gone from 400 million to 193 million to 152 million. This is a big indicator that interest (yes it is still high) is wearing off. With SiriusXM pre-announcing subs and guidance, there is not really any thunder left in the news front. Bear that in mind as you formulate what you think a reasonable offer from Liberty is.
The support and resistance carries a wall at $3.83. It is imperative for SiriusXM to get above this level if there is any real hope in seeing a Liberty offer of about $4. If the equity stays below this level, it hampers the negotiating power of the "independent" directors.
The EMA's remain essentially the same. We still have two warning flags.
Support and Resistance
Exponential Moving Averages