The stock price of Sirius XM Radio have hit levels below $1.00, indicating yet another downturn in the equity. Analysts have begun to weigh in on Sirius XM, and while most have maintained their price targets and outlooks, the pessimism on the street continue to weigh heavily on the stock.
Yesterday we highlighted the opinions of CITI and Goldman Sachs, and today J.P. Morgan, RBC and Stifel have added their two cents to the pool.
Barton Crockett of J.P. Morgan, concentrates on the financing that will be due in February of 2009. He feels that the company cash reserves will not be able to simply buy out the debt and that Sirius XM will have to test the challenging credit markets. Crockett maintains a "Neutral" rating on Sirius XM radio, and highlights the debt, as well as cautioning that the OEM and retail channels are weak.
Also adding his opinion was David Bank of RBC Capital. Bank is still pegging Sirius XM as Sector Perform with a $2.00 target, but seems cautious, pointing out the weak auto market, weak retail, and the refinancing overhang. The analyst also commented about the lack of long term "visibility" on satellite radio.
Kit Spring of Stifel had a bit of a scary edge to his report today. While he maintained "Buy" rating on the stock, he adjusted his price target by 33% taking it from $3 to $2. Spring says that company guidance was negative, and adjusted subscribers and financials down for 2008 and 2009. The scary part for investors is that Spring noted a downside potential of "ZERO" if the company is unable to get the some of their debt refinanced. Spring does feel that the company should be able to obtain financing, but the debt overhang seems to be a heavy weight on the stock.
Clearly current prices have people scratching their heads and wondering what the best position is. SIRI for under a dollar seems like a bargain to some, but others still see more of a haircut in the cards. What everyone needs to understand is that SIRI is a speculative stock. There are issues that the company has to deal with, and an economy that breeds pessimism. Each investor needs to consider many factors, and their own trading style before jumping in or getting out. This company needs time. The question is whether the street is willing to give it to them. Should the company announce a resolution to their debt issues, the biggest overhang can be removed from the stock.
Position - Long SIRI