Sirius XM Technical Review – 5-22
In this weeks technical review I will continue looking at the Exponential Moving Averages (EMA’s), volume and key support and resistance levels. The EMA’s seem to have been a decent indicator of late, and because they point to short medium and long term, it is a tool that can be used by more than traders.
In the midst of all of this we are also experiencing a snapshot for the Russell next week, and many are in the middle of a potential trade taking advantage of that event. From an EMA perspective Sirius XM is a mixed bag. The stock broke through key support levels, and now the 5, 13, 20, and 50 day averages are converging even closer than they were before.
Volume has been interesting as well. It has been lighter than normal for well over a week. This would seem to be further indication that there is still a large number of people sitting on the sidelines. The down side seems to have carried an advantage, but the equity seems to rally back. We are seeing lower lows as well as lower highs on moderate volume. This brings a mixed message to the technical side of trading.
Support and resistance switching places on a daily basis. At this point key support is $1.02 and key resistance is $1.07. If this past weeks action replays this week, it could set up for some anxious moments on the close next Friday. It is virtually imperative that Sirius XM get above that $1.07 mark going into the shareholders meeting next week.
Below is the new EMA chart (click to view). readers can do their own charts daily to see whether the short term situation is bullish or bearish. Going into Monday Sirius XM is bearish, but the ranges are so close that the picture can literally change in a matter of hours.
SiriusBuzz is also proud to announce another regular series in our coverage of Sirius XM (SIRI). Each Tuesday we will publish the SiriusBuzz Used Car and CPO Scorecard, an original and exclusive series. This series will track the used car market and CPO market inventories and give readers insight into the penetration the used car channel is experiencing. We will chart the data daily and present it each week so readers can see exactly what to expect from this segment that is gaining importance. Log into SiriusBuzz each Saturday for a technical review, Tuesday for the Used Car and CPO Scorecard, and Tuesday nights for SiriusBuzz Radio.
Position – Long Sirius XM Radio
I agree with everything you are saying except that Sirius looks bearish going into Monday.It had an amazing turnaround and was over 1.00 even when the Dow was negative late in the day. It closed strong in the last 20 minutes and added 2 cents after hours on some late buying, no one seemed to be selling. I agree it did not make it over 1.07, but I see nice momentum going into Monday and I’d expect it to close over your 1.07 resistance since we’re going into the Annual meeting Tuesday.
Also, it made a higher low .91 than the .86 on May 6th when the Dow, S & P were at their lows. I am seeing a stock that has unbelievable resiliency in light of the sell offs.
Your announcement about creating a Used Car and CPO (certified pre-owned?)scoreboard is, for me, the best news I have read about siri in awhile.
Explointing the used car market is going to determine whether siri is a big success or a huge success.
Thanks for creating this new data point.
3 points Spence:
1.) Throw out EVERYTHING that happened on Thursday/Friday and then recalibrate your support/resistance levels . . . Thursday/Friday were predominately synthetic trades due in large part to the options skew and the bogus/fabricated “panic correction” (high volume = high commissions; sell in May, Go Away);
2.) Stop-Loss Orders: Once again Spence, as proven-out on Thursday/Friday, leave the keys in the ignition and your car will eventually be stolen (the traders/brokers made their entire month’s spiff on Thursday’s action).
3.) Well Spence, we had to drag you to the CPO altar kicking and screaming the whole way (oops, just realized the timing of this analogy is not good; but hey, laughter is the best medicine) but I am glad you are finally there and ready to commit. CPO/Used is an important piece to the revenue puzzle. I will very much look forward to the weekly reports . . . great idea!!
I wasn’t kicking and screaming. CPO simplay was not going to be very relevant until it had a chance to get fully integrated and digested into the workings of the company.
Roadkill…..
I gave the caution about stops. What I would have done was to buy back in at the sign of a reversal, which would have been buying back in at about $0.96. The only purpose of a stop would have been to protect from catastrophic dips in price.
Spencer,
You and kingofalltrades guys are doing a fantastic job in being so professional and accurate, although accurate may be redundent for professional. Between the two of you are the best sources of serious and credible information about siri.
I am just curious what kind of sources and assesments you are going to employ for used and CPO markets and how accurate they are going to be. The reason for my interest is that these are the two nascent and very large pools for potential subscibers for siri that are going to be extremely important because close to 100% of revenue from these pools will go to siri bottom line, which will lower their SAC and increase ARPU.
I always look forward to your posts.