Sirius XM stock has seen active trading today, and is posting impressive gains even as the Dow and other indicies are simply treading water. Whether the activity is shorts covering, or simply a technical bottom, longs invested in the stock are perhaps beginning to see a much needed boost in the stock price.
No, the price is not where people want it to be, but it is moving up, and seems to be doing so as if it was on a mission. Last week Karmazin appeared on Autoline and conducted an interview that lasted about half an hour. Many of Karmazin's recent appearances have been well publicized and known about well in advance. People seemed to be waiting on every word, and if certain answers were not given, they were disappointed. Perhaps the appearance without the pre-announcement was part of what we needed.
Sirius XM should be conducting their Q3 2008 conference call within the next two weeks. this will be one of those times where everyone will begin to anticipate what will be said. In my opinion, the conference call will be a dissemination of the company performance, some very conservative guidance, and an overall stance that the company will be able to deal with the debt issue that awaits in 2009. The fact that the company has already started to deal with the February 2009 converts is an indication of movement on the issue.
So what exactly is behind the big gain for Sirius XM? At this point the answer is not known, but typically we will all find out soon enough. Depending on what is driving this action, we may have a good week in the satellite radio sector.
Position: Long SIRI