Sirius XM Release 5 year Guidance – Negotiating Refinancing Of Debt
As anticipated here on SiriusBuzz Sirius XM radio came out with a press release today on the Q3 reporting. The company will issue their quarterly report Monday, November 10, 2008, and will host a conference call the same day at 4:30 PM.
Perhaps more important than the guidance provided by Sirius XM Radio is the reason that the guidance was issued. The company states, “The company is in discussions with several financial institutions regarding a financing to replace its 2-1/2% Convertible Notes due 2009. In connection with these discussions, the company is releasing the material elements of its five-year operational and financial forecast.”
Refinancing of the debt has been a huge weight on the stock ever since the financial market collapse two months ago, and any news that a successful refinancing is happening could serve as a boost to the price per share.
Among the news was the release of guidance for the next five years.
| 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | |
| Subscribers | 20.6 | 22.1 | 24.0 | 26.2 | 28.4 |
| Revenue | $2.7 | $3.0 | $3.4 | $3.8 | $4.1 |
| Adjusted EBITDA* | $0.3 | $0.6 | $0.9 | $1.3 | $1.5 |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.0 | $0.4 | $0.6 | $1.0 | $1.4 |
In the past Mel Karmazin has always maintained conservative guidance. Under Promise and Over Deliver has been the track record. Time will tell how aggressive or conservative this guidance is. There is little doubt that a weak OEM channel has had, and will have an impact on this company, as this is the method by which most subscribers are derived.
Position: Long SIRI
Debt covered without dilution = huge positive.
Brad, ditto. My strategy is less attention intensive. I’m watching for bottom (knowning that timing it is virtually impossible). I have kept big powder dry waiting to buy enough to push my average share price well south of $1. At best we are still in a crap shoot.
socal…..
I do think that the disclaimer is legaleze but, needs to be considered at this time. The company has already issued shares to remove 50M of Feb debt and is asking for more shares from shareholders to further dilute. Thinking that this debt will be done from bank financing is a stretch, IMO, especially with bank facilities due to expire in May 09, for 350M. Dilution of equity to pay off debt seems to be the preferred option, as has already been exercised.
Cos. I agree with you post regarding debt being eliminated by dilution having been done.
I just think that the company is under intense investor scrutiny right now. That it is choosing it’s words very carefully.
And at some point when they issue press releases stating that they are involved in talks with several people to eliminate their Feb 21/2’s with a bank loan. They have to be believed.
They have made many mistakes. However, their numbers in this economy represent a “growth” company.
I couldn’t be more disappointed with what’s happened to the pps.
I myself have sold at .53 and bought back in at several points, not looking for a bottem. But hoping for some positives regarding the debt.
Let’s face it. The shorts rule every penny up or down in this equity. Just like Tyler said. But if you take away the “fear” of the Feb debt. Things can change in a hurry.
And I think they would want the price to go back over a dollar, eliminating the need for RS etc.
IMHO.
Off topic. How these genius’s expect the housing market to recover when fixed rates are at 6.50, I have no idea.
Did you see that the S&P maintained it’s buy rating on Sirius today.
The S&P is a tough sell. That’s a solid rating. The shorts need to go find some other poor stock bastard to gang up on……………
Does anyone know the details on how this game the shorts are playing works? When does it end? And does it go the other way? There should be some other past example out there that we could get some insight from?
Gs getting hammered today. Hopefully Weinkes got his pink slip………..
“underpromise and over diliver”????
I think that is an optomistic interpritation. SIRI has lowered its sub guidence three times this year (2.5M, 2M and now 1.6 or so). That is not consitant with underpromising and over delivering. It is declining growth.
I am not blaming the company. They are hardly alone in that. I am saying that anyone who interprits this as underpromising and over delivering is being an optomist.
SIRI-LONG
good question…hope we can get some intelligent answer for your question.
we were up .03 earlier today and now just under .01 near the close and over 48 million traded…very puzzling daily event.
The number of stocks that are victims of so-called naked shorting has plummeted several-fold in recent weeks.
Data published by the Nasdaq stock exchange, for example, show just 56 stocks on its naked short selling watch list this week, compared with almost 500 at the start of the SEC’s ban on naked short selling a list of 1,000 stocks.
anyone know where can we find out if we were on the list?
2,778,945 shares was last trade and caused the stock to drop from up t at .28 to .26…What the fuck goes on last trades everyday so big and destructive.
Who would trade that many shares at close?
SiriusHope
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Tr.....OThreshold
SIRI is not on the list – but that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re not being manipulated by strategic FTDs.
I think they are last minute margin calls. It wasn’t just us. The volume for the DOW jumped at the last minute too.
thanks WIN and JON
COS you had it right until last trade today.
Earlier you recall you told me….
That tells me that their trying to move the SP to over .28 where they will relocate their 250-300K block of shares too.
Hope,
Buyins.net does a nice job with the naked shorting lists.
Why do we get manipulated?
I actually once thought that someone hated H.Stern, so much, that they made it their lifes ambition to take the company down………..
Think he’s pissed anyone off enough for that to happen?????????
after just 20 minutes after hours to day look at this…look at the shares.
After Hours Trade Reporting
After Hours
Last: $ .28
After Hours
High: $ .288
After Hours
Volume: 1,816,963
After Hours
Low: $ .26
SOCAL
I really dont have an opinion why we get manipulated. It happens everyday at last few trades.