Sirius XM radio announced Q2 2009 results today and conducted a conference call to discuss the results. Many were expecting a mixed bag of information, and that is exactly what we received. However, the results of the quarter demonstrated that the company is on the cusp of proving that it has not only a viable business model, but a profitable one as well.
The glass is officially half full, and filling up.
While the company missed the street expectation on EPS because of one time charges, they were able to post positive ADJUSTED EBITDA to the tune of $132 million. This in addition to $109 million that was posted in Q1. Sirius XM raised ADJUSTED EBITDA guidance to "over $400 million", which seems conservative at this point given the first half numbers. The company appears on a blatantly obvious pace to beat their guidance.
One of the bigger surprises in the quarter came from the OEM channel. Despite production shut downs, the company was able to deliver a positive number in promotional subscribers, reversing the negative setback in Q1. Churn is under control, and the self paying subscriber category showed a loss of only 15,000 subscribers.
The street treated the news as a mixed bag, noting the loss, but pairing that news with positive guidance. Thus far the reaction in the stock has been stable, a positive sign given what happened last quarter. Clearly Sirius XM is concentrating on cash flow, and metrics that make their financial picture look better. Mel Karmazin pointed out quite strongly that the days of negative subscribers are behind us, and hinted that the OEM channel seems to have reached its bottom as well.
Going forward, the company will be posting much more positively weighted numbers, and this bodes well for those invested in the company, as it seems clear that many of the hurdles holding things back are on the verge of becoming positive. This is not to say that challenges do not lay ahead. They clearly do. However, those challenges seem much more manageable now. If Sirius XM is able to post the numbers they have in this economic environment, the future bodes well.
Sentiment on Sirius XM should seems to have the data in place for investors to shift from cautiously neutral to cautiously positive and then to outright positive.
Tyler Savery Position - Long Sirius XM Radio