We have all heard Mel Karmazin state that more detail regarding Sirius XM Radio would be available after Labor Day. This left the window open for speculation, rumor, and simply stated, another period of time where Sirius XM radio stock could blow with whatever winds the marketmakers, a television host, or even an analyst wanted. Even hot tips whether accurate or not are difficult to prove one way or the other, leaving more frustration.
Sirius XM Radio is stuck. For sector followers this is nothing new. However, knowing it is stuck, and knowing that it is being traded in a range does not ease the frustration. For the past week the stock as bounced around a bit, but accomplished nothing. Longs and shorts are not seeing any real traction. The stock is stuck. How long it will remain in a channel is not yet known, but the next major activity is.
Labor Day is this Monday, and it is then that the company will begin to roll out more detail. This will be something that is hopefully more concrete. Something people can sink their teeth into, and something that will give the street a sense of direction with this equity.
There are two aspects that need to play out in the coming weeks:
1. What consumers should expect with the merger. This aspect is important, because there is still a lot of confusion out there with reference to legacy receivers, oem receivers, Best Of programming, A-La-Carte receivers, and even how branding will happen. Sirius XM Radio needs to put all confusion to rest. Not all of it has to be in a Press Release, it just needs to be available. People with lifetime subscriptions wonder what happens now. People with one base service or the other also have questions. Retailers do not know the answer, so people need to have a place to get that information.
2. What investors can expect. How will churn be counted, how subscribers will be counted, what is the status of coverts, debt, and satellites. What synergies are expected to deliver and in what time frame. Investors need to see the final goal, and some milestones on the way to that goal, but perhaps what is more important is getting everyone on the same page as to how to look at this equity.
Until there are some answers to questions such as this, this equity will be stuck. Jim Cramer speaks of additional converts being needed prior to February of 2009. The last thing this equity needs is yet another overhang. The fact of the matter is that there are many financing options available to Sirius XM Radio. Converts is not the only answer, but the street is not aware of that. Jim Cramer is pounding a drum, and until concrete answers are available, that drum beat is hard for people to ignore.
While is is difficult to digest, patience is the key word no matter what your current position. Patience is needed until there is a concrete and demonstrable change. Once that happens, this equity can react on something other than television, market makers and speculation.
Position – Long SIRI