Sirius XM Radio Is Stuck
We have all heard Mel Karmazin state that more detail regarding Sirius XM Radio would be available after Labor Day. This left the window open for speculation, rumor, and simply stated, another period of time where Sirius XM radio stock could blow with whatever winds the marketmakers, a television host, or even an analyst wanted. Even hot tips whether accurate or not are difficult to prove one way or the other, leaving more frustration.
Sirius XM Radio is stuck. For sector followers this is nothing new. However, knowing it is stuck, and knowing that it is being traded in a range does not ease the frustration. For the past week the stock as bounced around a bit, but accomplished nothing. Longs and shorts are not seeing any real traction. The stock is stuck. How long it will remain in a channel is not yet known, but the next major activity is.
Labor Day is this Monday, and it is then that the company will begin to roll out more detail. This will be something that is hopefully more concrete. Something people can sink their teeth into, and something that will give the street a sense of direction with this equity.
There are two aspects that need to play out in the coming weeks:
1. What consumers should expect with the merger. This aspect is important, because there is still a lot of confusion out there with reference to legacy receivers, oem receivers, Best Of programming, A-La-Carte receivers, and even how branding will happen. Sirius XM Radio needs to put all confusion to rest. Not all of it has to be in a Press Release, it just needs to be available. People with lifetime subscriptions wonder what happens now. People with one base service or the other also have questions. Retailers do not know the answer, so people need to have a place to get that information.
2. What investors can expect. How will churn be counted, how subscribers will be counted, what is the status of coverts, debt, and satellites. What synergies are expected to deliver and in what time frame. Investors need to see the final goal, and some milestones on the way to that goal, but perhaps what is more important is getting everyone on the same page as to how to look at this equity.
Until there are some answers to questions such as this, this equity will be stuck. Jim Cramer speaks of additional converts being needed prior to February of 2009. The last thing this equity needs is yet another overhang. The fact of the matter is that there are many financing options available to Sirius XM Radio. Converts is not the only answer, but the street is not aware of that. Jim Cramer is pounding a drum, and until concrete answers are available, that drum beat is hard for people to ignore.
While is is difficult to digest, patience is the key word no matter what your current position. Patience is needed until there is a concrete and demonstrable change. Once that happens, this equity can react on something other than television, market makers and speculation.
Position – Long SIRI
AMEN! It is now time for Mel to speak up. One issue they can clarify immediately is to layout WHERE the $400MM is ‘overhead reductions’ will come from. The issue we are all waiting for, and have since its inception is WHEN the first dollar of profit will arrive.
The product is a great one, but without a profit it can’t continue to be provided. The merger held out that hope, and now it is time to DELIVER!
Speadk Mel, Speak!!!
Mel MUST deliver in the next week or you will see under a $1. And you all know what happens when a stock trades below a buck for a period of time.
Lets not fall into the same trap we did leading up to the merger approval.
I think it’s best to not look at Mel’s upcoming conference call as the BE ALL END ALL.
It’ll be the first in many announcements going into the future. So don’t expect EVERYTHING to be cleared up with ONE conference call. It’s going to take many over a long period of time coupled with positive earnings reports to really start to move the stock.
I’m confident it will. Like Tyler writes…PATIENCE is the key. Because already i sense the growing frustration by alot of people that things aren’t moving fast enough.
RELAX. They just merged. There are lots of things to work out. This is just the beginning and it’s gonna take time. So sit back. Relax. And breeeeeeaaaath. Ok?
Hey…I’d be THRILLED if Mel blew us away and announced something so AMAZING the stock would INSTANTLY double.
But I rather NOT expect that. This way…I’ll be pleasantly surprised if it does….or able to deal with it calmly if it doesn’t.
Remember. Long and strong.
Investors can and should ignore Mel Karmazin’s words.
Instead, pay attention to Sirius XM’s success (or failure) at restructuring debt, then its services (or lack thereof) introduced to consumers in the next 3-6 months.
‘Interoperable’ head units, lower-priced tiers, and cross-migrated channels should have been in place for once the merger took place, but that’s all water under the bridge at this point.
If they can’t restructure this debt, the company’s headed for bankruptcy.
frigginregan,
Patience has become a deadly word when it used in context with Sirius. I believe patience has just about run out for long investors. Mel has had 17 months to ponder his moves after the merger. There will be NO slack given if he does not deliver NOW!!! The stock will drop below a $1 if he blows this upcoming conference.
Patience a dirty word? What about impatience? Or better yet, EXPECTATION!
Hey, I’m a long, so I KNOW where you’re coming from. I’ve run the gamut of emotions with this stock.
First with the INSANE merger delay…and then…even worse the post merger DROP.
But I’ve got my second wind now. Yeah it sucks. But the reality is, it’s like starting over. If I think of the past, or how long I’ve been in this stock, and all the other stocks I COULD have been in…you go crazy.
If I didn’t believe in this company, I’d have pulled out by now.
But like Brandon says…why pull out now? We’ve gone so low and been beaten down so much…it’s pointless to throw in the towel now.
If you step back alittle…get a fresh perspective…you realize how things have FINALLY become interesting again!
I mean face it, the last two years being stuck in that merger hell…was like being in LIMBO. NOTHING happened…because NOTHING COULD happen. We WERE stuck. TRULY stuck.
Although Tyler is right that we are stuck now too…it’s a DIFFERENT kind of stuck. The merger although ugly is DONE. The momentum is real…although slow right now. It will build…if you are PATIENT.
Remember when you were a kid and you’d go in your neighbors above ground pool. You know…one of those round ones. And you’d go around in circles along the edge with your friends creating a whirpool effect? Then you and your friends would turn around and try to walk against the current? At first you couldn’t. You were swept backwards…holding on the side of the pool and trying to get your footing. But LITTLE by LITTLE you and your friends could reverse the flow. Slowly at first. But eventually you were able to make the whirpool go the OTHER way.
Thats what is happening now with SiriusXM. Give it time.
If you BELIEVE in the company like me…it WILL HAPPEN. Hang in there.
If you DON’T…the get out now and cut your losses. It’s really as simple as that.
I look back just 6 years ago, Apple was below $10. People LAUGHED at me for buying.
But look at it now. Not saying Sirius is the next apple by a long shot….but I BELIEVE in the company. So I’m holding.
You’ve waited this long. Why not wait some more? Things are JUST beginning to get interesting!
What’s funny is I owned Apple @ $9 and sold @ $15. I had 3000 shares. Need I tell you how many times I kicked myself in the arse. I’m down 58% in Sirius (100,000 shares)and have NO plans of selling anytime soon. It is the pure frustration over the constant blatant manipulation of this stock that eats away at you. Day in and day out reading so many negative reports, posts and that SOB Cramer.
I hear u SiriusXMinvestor.
In my short history in the stock market…NOTHING comes close to the frustration of this stock. There were times in the past where people made ALOT of money with Sirius. Back when it had like NO subs!
Now we have close to 20 MILLION…and NADA! And you’re right, it IS frustrating.
But I still feel that the bashers and shorts have had nearly 2 years of merger limbo where Mel’s hands were tied and they had TOTAL FREEDOM to run rough shod over this stock.
Things are different now. Yes there is he debt issue. But the merger is DONE now. Mel’s hands are no longer tied. As he starts doing what Mel does….things should change.
Of course I don’t know diddly squat…but I didn’t suffer thru all that just to give up now. Like I say…things are JUST getting interesting.
im a siri investor, was holding off till the merger, jump in in the midst of the pop, no pop, woooh …, what happend,…. lets do some homework……, yeh lets get in,.. 15,000 shares, lookin to add more next week.
im a first time subscriber, went to radio shack today, got the stratus,home kit, and a 2 year subscription. wow, why did i wait so long to get this service! this is reeaaally cooool!
it just confirms my belief that this is a great company with great prospects.
the sales guy had just put up an advertising sign that just came in, nothing new yet, looks like their trying to clear out the old stuff lower prices.. got the stratus for 29.99, for that price who cares,im useing it now (and loveing it),& ill get a new one when they come out.
just a thought.., with all the layoff’s they should send some of these employees to all the stores that carry their product for training, displays etc.. i went to several stores just for curosity and most of them are clueless..thats not good.
position, long,..attitude, patience.
also, they gaurentee that any reciever you buy now (or have had) will work post merger into the future
Sirius/XM may be “stuck”, but that doesn’t mean they can’t get unstuck. The merger delay, orchestrated by the most corrupt administration in this nations history, certainly cripled the company to a certain extent. But it didn’t kill them, and now is the time to pull out ALL the stops to make up for lost time. They need to implement a major marketing/promotion assault on the American public, many of whom not only aren’t interested in satellite radio- some people have never heard of it! I know; I’m surrounded by ignorant, incredibly unsophisticated morons where I work who cringe at the mere mention of the words satellite radio. They don’t approve of it, yet know nothing about it! This is what Sirius/XM is up against. This has to be one of the most amazing products to come out in the last 50 years, but you wouldn’t know it based on the apathy shown by most consumers. They think the i-pod is cool – so they buy it so they too can be cool. The i-pod is a pain in the ass compared to satellite radio. You would think that the average lazy slacker out there would be thrilled to have a product that has built in CONTENT, and is so simple to use. Never underestimate the stupidity of the American public. Mel is supposed to be the master salesman; he needs to convince the millions of naysayers out there that satellite radio really is the future of radio!
frigginreagan, “In my short history in the stock market…NOTHING comes close to the frustration of this stock. There were times in the past where people made ALOT of money with Sirius. Back when it had like NO subs!”
I’m sorry did you ignore the fact that SiriusXMInvestor said that he owned 100K shares of this stock. This individual has a lot of “Skin in the Game”. As a rookie who post constantly why don’t you tell us what you have in the game. I have 30K shares of my hard earned dollars that I thought I’ld buy a boat with. What about you?
MIB Your kidding right? Interoperable radios as exchangeable “head units”, migrated channels, lower priced tiers all should have been in place already. Four weeks from the merger that was delayed 18 months. Tell me how you not being unreasonable in your expectations. Better yet, tell me that you even understand how the company works and delivers its services. You uninformed idiots are everywhere taking advantage of a company silent period.
Tyler, That is the best picture of a “Stuck situation” that I’ve seen in a long time. Can we at least get the dog out of the tree???
stay long cos, the boat will be a yacht,..or ..ship…plus some….
holdon, I believe it will be. I am long and strong until we make money or lose it all….When that happens I believe “Hell” is scheduled for a good Icing Down.
This stock has two options in the next 30 months. Zero or 4.00. 50/50% chance for either. Place your bets.
Hello Tyler, What would be the options for Sirius in Feb 09′ for the additional financing due? Can they take care of that early if attractive options arise?
Is that “MAD DOG?” Russo in the picture??
1.34 a share!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks MEL!