Sirius XM Q2 2009 Preview
The time has come once again to outline my expectations for Sirius XM’s quarter. Over the past few quarters we have seen improvement on some metrics, slippage on others, and some serious one time charges. Q2 will be more of the same.
With all that has happened, it is difficult at best for expectations to be met on some metrics. For whatever reason, there are known one time charges that will impact the company but as yet have not been built into models by analysts. In fairness, analysts have not published their Q2 projections yet, and some may revise to take such charges into consideration. If that does not happen, we can expect to see headlines that the company missed estimates, and the debate about one time costs will rage in the forums.
The company has not yet disclosed a number in association with paying off debt early. The number is likely to be substantial, and could impact the EPS by as much as a nickle. Thus, what investors need to understand is the reality of such one time charges and balance that against the perception of the street and mainstream media. The facts are that the loss, even if only a one time loss, is real. Understanding that it will not happen again next quarter is also real. Thus, if the perception is a bad miss this quarter, those same investors could be in for a surprise next quarter.
SUBSCRIBERS
Let’s get this out of the way first. Subscribers will once again come in on the negative side. The slip will not be as bad as Q1, but given what transpired in the quarter, a negative number is pretty much a foregone conclusion. On the positive side of things, the slip has less to do with consumers not wanting the product, but instead a drop in production and sales in the OEM channel. Specifically, the shut down of Chrysler production took a toll on the promotional subscriber number. The GM shutdowns will impact Q3 because of the nature of how subscribers are counted. Some expect this slowdown to be offset by the iPhone app, and Certified Pre-Owned programs, but in my opinion these numbers are negligible.
The good news is that it would appear that churn will improve. Last quarter I had used an “ALL-IN” churn number of 3.2%. The “ALL-IN” churn was actually closer to 3.1%. The basis for improved churn is in how deactivations typically happen. The company gives consumers a thirty day grace period in an attempt to market those subscribers to renew. The biggest subscription quarter is Q4 with most activations happening in the week after Christmas. Thus, subscriptions expiring in Q4 2008 would get a grace period into Q1 of 2009. With the economy being what it was, and consumers trying to figure out a way to pay their bills, the timing couldn’t be worse for renewing. This would lead to higher than normal churn. While channel shuffles and price increase announcements would have some impact, those conditions are negligible in my opinion.
I forecast gross subscriber additions in the neighborhood of 1,165,000. This would be down from the 1.33 million of last quarter. With lower churn, and a few positive marketing efforts, the total for subs count will still be negative, but will be slightly better than last quarter. With “ALL-IN” churn at 2.7%, we could potentially see the the subscriber count decrease by about 300,000 to 340,000. This would bring about a total of 18,259,000 to 18,299,000 subs for Q2.
Potential surprises could come from a better than expected retail number, and better than anticipated success of the iTunes app at bringing in new subscribers. I would consider deactivations of under 300,000 to be a surprise to the street.
CHURN
Sirius XM reports “Self Pay Churn”. This metric captures the deactivations of subscribers who are self paying. Last quarter Sirius XM saw Self Pay Churn come in at 2.2%. This represented the high end of the range we gave last quarter. In my opinion, Sirius XM will see improvement here because of of the traditional holiday bump we see in Q1. In addition, the loyalty of the self payed subscriber base has been fairly consistent. Self Pay Churn should come in between 1.8% and 1.9%. The churn metric will be one metric where the company can show a marked improvement.
REVENUE
The revenue line will be a decent metric for the company this quarter, but nothing really special. The street is expecting revenue of about $607 million, but may have not considered some potential items that will help revenue, as well as a decrease in subscribers as large as I am projecting. The Sirius XM iPhone app will deliver a few bucks, but came late in the quarter. Existing subscribers who use the app will find themselves paying an extra $3 per month. The numbers will not be huge, but every little bit helps. Price increases will carry only a minimal impact. With a high percentage of subscribers in prepay plans, the price increase will not be material until those plans expire. The impacts of the price increase, both positive and negative, will be spread out over the next 3 or four quarters. The biggest hit comes in the loss of subscribers. Revenue between $575 million and $600 million would not be a surprise to me. While it is possible that the company could beat last quarters revenue, I feel the only way it could be accomplished is if there has been an improvement in advertising.
Average Revenue Per User (ARPU)
Average Revenue per user is a metric that will begin to see steady improvement over the course of the next year. Between price increases, the new family plan rate, and the Internet streaming fees, the company will see the ARPU improve each month as these costs get built into the mix. Most cost increases will happen over time. Those that are already on annual plans will not be impacted by increases until their renewal comes up. This quarter Sirius XM should see improvement in ARPU because of new subscribers paying higher rates, and the initial success of the iTunes app. The new revenue from iTunes in my opinion is going to be dominated by existing subscribers upgrading their subscription to take advantage of the service on their iPhone or iPod Touch. New subscribers delivered from the app are likely minimal, and will not deliver huge revenue or subscriber numbers. Investors should look for ARPU in the $10.50 to $10.55 range.
Subscriber Acquisition Cost (SAC)
Subscriber acquisition costs are the costs associated with gaining new subscribers. This cost is determined per gross addition, and includes subsidies, marketing, etc. Last quarter the SAC came in at $61. Typically the bulk of SAC costs come from the OEM channel. Due to production slowdowns, the company should be able to save quite a bit of money. The new iPhone app will generate some subs, so this will give a boost because the app is subsidy free. Look for the company to show improvement in this line item, but nothing substantial. The SAC could come in between $55 and $58 in my opinion. Sirius XM saved money in the OEM channel, but their advertising surrounding the iPhone app stepped up quite a bit from the norm.
PENETRATION RATE
This measures the amount of satellite radio’s installed in the overall production of cars. This metric is important because it demonstrates growth in the OEM channel. The penetration rate last quarter was 53%. The company stated that they anticipate being in the high 50’s by the end of the year. What we should realistically look for is a penetration rate in the neighborhood of 55% for Q2.
TAKE RATE
Take rate represents the number of consumers that elect to keep the service after the promotional period. Those that elect to become subscribers fall into the self pay category. Those that do not will become deactivations, and fall under the unofficial metric of “ALL-IN” churn. Last quarter the take rate was in the mid 40’s. I look for the take rate to remain flat, with a small dip possible. As the penetration rate gets bigger, it is very possible that we will see a natural decline in the take rate. Satellite radio is a pay service, and it makes sense that consumers of some car models would be more likely satellite radio candidates than other models. As the lower end models begin to see more installations take rate will naturally suffer. The key going forward will be getting to a reasonable constant that investors can hang their hat on. We are not there yet, but should be able to have a much better idea on this issue a few quarters down the road.
EARNINGS PER SHARE (EPS)
This will be the tricky metric for the quarter, and this metric will be the subject of a ton of debate. The reported earnings will be a miss. The street is expecting a $0.01 loss, but so far no analyst has considered the major charges that will impact this line. Sirius XM Radio has not yet published the impact of the recent XM Radio debt refinancing. The number will be substantial, and could impact the EPS by several pennies. Thus, the company will announce a big hit, but will qualify the statement by noting that a big portion of the hit will be attributable to one time charges. While SiriusBuzz readers will know about this because we are making note of it, most investors will be caught off guard. I foresee negative headlines being the norm by mainstream media, and that could put a good deal of pressure on the stock. Aside from the one time impacts, I see the company meeting street expectations, with a slight chance of beating them. However, investors should be prepared for an EPS loss to be much more substantial than $0.01 per share.
CLOSING
In my opinion the quarter will demonstrate more merger synergies and show that the company is on the right track. The refinancing in the quarter was a prudent move for the long term prospects of the company. The iPhone app will get positive discussion in the call, but don’t look for much color on the matter beyond perhaps the number of downloads. Sirius XM will have many positive aspects to report on, but the alignment of all of the metrics moving in the proper direction is not something we will see here in Q2.
The impact on investors is almost predictable. If history has taught us nothing else, we know to expect a run-up going into earnings followed by mainstream reporting on the quarter that highlights the negative. Realistically speaking, the company has not demonstrated a knockout quarter in quite some time that would silence their critics. That “perfect” quarter may come at some point, but not in Q2. Investors will see signs that free cash flow is around the corner, but the wait continues.
Position – Long Sirius XM
Tyler,the only 1 time charge i see for the refinancing is 36million from the new bond and stock plan shares,unless i’m missing something.That is roughly -.01 EPS for 1 time loss charge..this was 30mil for new bond and 6 mil for stock incentive plan,cost to register the shares given out….
Johnny,
There is prepayments on the xm debt that happened. If you recall the company increased the bond offering substantially. What we do not know is how much of that was used to prepay. These costs will be attributable to the EPS
Tyler we do know,the premium prepay for new bond was 30 million,sold 530 million in bonds and received 499.99 million in proceeds.
Credit facility had 105% of principle with 75 paid in cash by SXM already in 25 and 50 mil installments before refi,left 175 mil with prepay penalty and 100mil to liberty e=with no prepay.cost was 7 mil..thank you for reminding me about prepay penalty,so i have 43 mil in finance 1 time charges,=-(.01)still roughly
Exquisite research Irish! Very nice detail here . . .
Perhaps the “usual” run up into earnings won’t happen this time. I don’t know if I’d expect the stock to go much higher than where it is now….and then after earnings the usual negative headlines will appear highlighting the sub loss and we’ll see a sell off compounded by the increase in short interest.
What I plan to do is NOT buy right now heading into earnings, and just let my shares I am holding ride until AFTER earnings and the price drop…and THEN buy more in the low 30s…and if God forbid…the high 20s.
I think from there we will POP up on any good news that comes out leading up to the 3Q cc….such as Howard Stern on the iphone app, a Sirius Blackberry app etc.
I think we are pretty much at the bottom right now….so if the stock drops after Q2 on a panic sell, I think it will be short lived….and will present a good buying opportunity. I’ll look at it as a good entry point for trading. The current shares I own are more of an investment or looong term trade. The chunk of $ I put in if the price drops after earnings will be for trading. I’ll sell it on short term pops back up to where it is now and perhaps if it pops back into the high 40s or 50s.
I’m preparing for another bumpy quarter or two before the tide really turns.
Having said all this, HEY….I’d LOVE a nice surprise from Mel at the CC. Lol…I know I know…but I can’t help but say that. Hope springs eternal as they say. A sentiment most Sirius shareholders can identify with I’m sure.
Peace.
Did you read what I posted yesterday???
As long as this company is run like it was Sears or KMart, ain’t nothing good going to come out of it.
Everyone and their mother expects a run up before earnings and then a selloff. What if there is no run up and we actually stay under pressure and go into the call lower than .40. No guarantee – seems too easy to predict.
Are there any one time charges involved with Mels contract renewal or the satellite launch or the development and Apple partnership for the iTunes app?
There is no Apple partnership.
Excellent analysis. I agree with your reasoning on most of your topics. I think you are underestimating revenue however.
Explain some more about the one time charge. How would that work exactly, and what would the amount possible charged here?
I agree with you that this is the “the quarter”. That might just be Q3. First time we can get back to positive subs, and post actual FCF, even with one time charges. Q3 might have some Loral charges.
The Loral charges will be big . . . still no PFCF for Q3 but we knew this as far back as July 2008 . . go take a look again at the Faber interview . .
Perhaps the usual run up wont occur? Im not betting on that. Thats a risky trade. It would be unusual. Hence, risk/reward.
The gamble trade would be as friggin is talking about above. Assume no run up and sell for the exact same price it is at right now, and buy lower. Huge gamble on that trade. Rather buy here, and sell on the spike up, and buy again lower.
One metric absent and actually quite valuable would be internal numbers highlighting actual “listening statistics” per channel.
This one metric, alone, would shed light on whether Stern is an expense or asset, AND provide investors/traders with a clearer view of how much more money Mel Karmazin is preparing to throw away.
keep saying around the net that this Q will be horrendous and one time charges will hurt–But the 3rd and 4thQ looking good as synergies, new programs and fees, iphone, refinanced contracts/bond debt paid off to reduce expenses and Oems starting to come back online with GM and Chrysler adding shifts to increase inventory which is low–We have reached bottom in 2nd Q and will see steady(if not slow)improvement from here out–Unless the idiots in Washington do something else stupid
Q3 will have sat-launch capex. Q4 or bust; that’s it.
Outstanding work as usual Tyler! Many thanks for breaking it down.
I will still look for CPO revenue to be better than expected however.
Have you been able to confirm a firm date for the CC?
Roadkill…..
CPO deals do not generate revenue, nor are they counted as subscribers. In general, the promotional period is paid for by Sirius XM. Thus, no revenue, no sub.
The CPO deals generate subs only if the consumer becomes self paying after their promotional perid.
Subs will be negative – No chance of positive.
EPS will be negative – no chance for positive.
Rev will be okay, but nothing stunning.
churn will see improvement
cash flow will be better
ARPU will be better
SAC will be better
“The CPO deals generate subs only if the consumer becomes self paying after their promotional perid.”
True . . . my thinking, however, is that Q408 & Q109 were very strong CPO periods for dealers (Q209 slowed a bit).
So the Q408 CPO’s (which bulged in Dec) and a lot of the early Q109 CPO’s would most likely come off-promo sometime during Q209; then we are back to retrospective penetration estimates coupled with current take rate . .
No doubt a lag effect due to accounting treatment.
Am I still wrong in my calibrations?
Roadkill…
Consider a few factors.
1- cpo cars are usually 2 to 3 years old. Overall penetration 2 to 3 years ago was a lot less than it is now.
2- cpo’s in many brands would have even lower penetration
3- let’s assume that 25% of current cpo”s have satellite radio. For every 1 million sold, satellite radio gets 250k chances.
4- take rate should be less than with new cars. Let’s assume 30%.that equates to 75k new subs on every 1 million cpo’s sold. Not a big number.
5- over time the percentage of satellite equipped cpo cars will increase, but we are not there yet
When considering cpo’s you need to take factors like these into account.
More reality.
The problwm is shrinking of user base. The car companies have nothing to do with someone not renewing.
Last Q it was 1.7 million subs walking away. This number has increased exponentailly over the past 9 quarters. This quarter I think may be worse, continuing the trend. Nothing to do with car maker woes. If the defectors keep increasing, no sales growth in the world can save this company. It is keeping the subs you have first. This is the problem with this whole business plan and why it is failed. It takes a year to recoup a sub cost and then they don’t renew, so they are always chasing their tail.
You are absolutely correct. Again, ref my comparision to Sears & KMart as an example how this company is being run.
Word of mouth is that the programming quality has decreased,the enthusiasim for the product is waining and nobody in senior management aappears to care. I know thats the case for me.
No reading of tea leaves or technical minutia will explain this away.
tsavery says:
July 21, 2009 at 9:53 am
“Roadkill…
Consider a few factors.
1- cpo cars are usually 2 to 3 years old. Overall penetration 2 to 3 years ago was a lot less than it is now.
2- cpo’s in many brands would have even lower penetration
3- let’s assume that 25% of current cpo”s have satellite radio. For every 1 million sold, satellite radio gets 250k chances.
4- take rate should be less than with new cars. Let’s assume 30%.that equates to 75k new subs on every 1 million cpo’s sold. Not a big number.
5- over time the percentage of satellite equipped cpo cars will increase, but we are not there yet
When considering cpo’s you need to take factors like these into account.”
No disagreement with your methodology but one “could” reasonably argue a different set of assumptions such as average penetration of 35-40% on a 2.5 year old CPO unit and a take rate of 40% (which is 20% lower than current take) . . thus, current annualized pace of 1.7mm CPO units at 35-40% PR = 595,000-680,000 PromoSubs X 40% take = 238,000-272,000 Self-Pay/4 = 59,500-68,000 gross adds in qtr before seasonal adjustment.
Roadkill…..
1. I do not think getting to a 35% to 40% penetration rate is a reasonable assumption. We are talking about cars thatt are 2.5 years old. Toyota was barely doing installs, Nissan was not rampped up. Even Frord had not yet gone past 40%.
2. Current take rate is 47% or so. 20% lower would be 37% to 38%. I think you are being far too generous to get to anywhere near 40% at this point. If the take rate on CPO’s was 40% I would be flaberghasted.
3. My opinion is that the CPO PR’s of late got some people far to overenthusiastic about the market. There have been CPO deals in place for quite some time, yet no-one has said boo about them. The reason is that they are not yet bringing in significant numbers. Until the 40% of the CPO cars are satellite equipped, the contribution of that segment simply will not bring meaningful numbers that move metrics.
“While current conditions in the automotive industry are sobering, to say the least, we are well-positioned in terms of penetration with almost every single auto-maker. Our overall penetration was 53% in the first quarter. This compares to 44% one year ago.”
per James E. Meyer, May 2009
so 40% is actually 24.53% lower 🙂
scratch that last post . . misread your comment (PR v TR) my bad
Isn’t 38%of 16mil more than 40% of 9 mil? I think the increase that is effective in July will bring a lot of renewals that want to save money. The increase in shorts worries me. Since they are supposedly professionals, with maybe some bought inside information.
Whats with the huge sell off today? Perhaps I was right when I predicted that Sirius wouldn’t follow it’s usual pattern of running up before earnings and THEN selling off. I felt that this time Sirius would sell off leading to earnings and then slowly climb back up after earnings. How fast depending on what is said.
Could this be the beginning of a sell off that will push the stock down to the low 30s or high 20s?
I am glad I didn’t buy more today. I think the quick pop to .42 was a head fake to get people to buy now.
I am going to watch how low it goes before the earnings call and buy when I think we’ve hit the bottom.
The quarters going ahead should keep improving, so I feel any drop in price now will be a solid bottom and a good safe bet to average down even more.
It’s frustrating yes….but after 4 years, I’m kinda used to it with this stock.
Good luck to all.
frigginregan,
The answer to your question is Yes, this is the beginning of a sell off that will push the stock down to the mid to low 20s.
There are already hints coming from Ben Bernanke that this recession will be deeper and longer than originally anticipated.
Coupled with the fact that the Obama Administration is
delaying the mid-Session budget review to mid-August, it’s obvious we’re going to be getting some very bad numbers.
These numbers that will exacerbate subscription loss and then some.
Any improvements that Sirius-XM can make to the bottom line are good.
However, no one should expect them to pay off in the stock price until the recession is over for a while.
The climate just isn’t good for Sirius-XM right now.
If SIRI closed at 37 cents on a Tuesday, the total sell-off by Friday could put SIRI back at 30 cents.
SIRI will continue to be a shorts paradise for the foreseeable future.
Blah blah phoney, if you dont own the stock, and you think its going nowhere, why are you here? Confused. Maybe if I understand your motivations and situation, that would add some credibility to your arguement.
Its not going back to the .20s, I HATE to disappoint you. Low should be .35, give or take one cent.
relmor2003,
If you don’t like my posts, don’t read them.
The fact is you haven’t predicted ANYTHING correctly and I have.
It must really suck for you to be so completely wrong about every move this stock has made or will make.
Ive been right so many times about this company, I would actually describe it as staggering. I havent been wrong since around October. Since then, Ive been nails buddy. You have been wrong since October, and you refuse to admit it. Acceptance is the first step towards recovery. And you have a problem. Your in denial that this company is going to make it work, and that frightens you. Enough to come on here every article and spread misinformation and at times, downright lies. As your last post.
You will be very sad to learn I have tripled my money invested in SiriusXM since October. Does that piss you off? That Ive made a killing on this stock you hate so much? Bet that bothers you.
I have been wrong since October?
That’s not possible since I have only recently started posting here.
You have me confused with someone else.
you recently mentioned the stock would hit .35 by the end of the week that ended mid july. wrong….
Thanks for the insight and I hope you are being more pessimistic than usual because I believe this Q2 report is going to have some great news, both in the synergies and earnings PLUS have you thought that there might be some forward looking information announced SUCH AS =====>
Have you considered the FM-5 geostationary satellite now in orbit?
One of the possible LARGE revenue streams to come is still the likely possibility of beaming the signals to Mexico, Central America and South America and selling subcriberships to the potential Mexicans (109,955,400), South Americans (382,000,000) and the Central Americans (41,135,300). I don;t believe the population count has been missed by Sirius XM. Remember – two antennae ( not one antenna as reported here) – one new geostationary satellite 18KW of power available. This satellite should bring a large amount of new commercial and consumer customers to the fold. This satellite and the next FM-6, scheduled for launch next year, both with the added “video” ( yes video! ) bandwidth, opens a whole new world of possible finacial rewards for Sirius XM.
George,
Sirius-XM already has excess capacity.
Mexico and South America are in worse shape economically than the US.
The idea that SatRad from Sirius-XM will do anything internationally in these markets is a pipe dream.
Do you honestly believe that Mexico and South America represent strong markets for Sirius-XM?
You can’t possibly be that naive.
Insulting an intelligent poster wins you not points here. You NEVER stated your reason for being here. Thanks for proving my point again. You have none. Your a loser who cries a lot. Go back to your basement, and pound out another bash. Mommy will be calling your for lunch soon, little guy.
sheep boy
do you think that a company would send the rocket up and then wish to pass the cup for donations-?
or do ya think they did their homework re the regions first- then decided what the required satellite capabilty should be based on their findings
anyone that is traveled will know that there are areas of S America that are heavily populated with people that have more money and smaller bathing suits then you could imagine
Imagine a $20 a year, summer get a way pass. Listen to your sat. radio anywhere in Mexico, and central america for that price, or just add a “coverage charge” for tourists and travellers. Skys the limit. Good points.
dead elvis,
I do NOT believe that Sirius-XM management has done their homework at all.
Plenty of their recent decisions prove that they don’t.
I believe Mel is moving full steam ahead, with the capital at hand, to stick to his original plans.
The state of the economy or the company doesn’t seem to mean anything to him.
Go away boo boo.
I cant ignore your posts Blah blah fhoney. It would be irresponsible of me to allow your rants to go unanswered. I wouldnt want common stockholders selling into misinformation, and fear, but on informed, intelligent facts.
need to come up with a nickname for him on this site
BAH BAH BS is a good start!!!
Whats wrong wiht BLah Blah Phoney!!!
LOL
LOL
I’m still waiting for SIRI to post a close at 40 cents or above for 2 days in a row.
The fact SIRI still can’t perform that little feat proves how full of it you really are.
SIRI is a perpetual penny stock that will go up a bit here and there but will never be anything more than it is.
You and your fellow cheerleaders have been making grand predictions for Sirius-XM for a long time and not a single thing you have said has come true for the company.
Mel has consistently made foolish moves that only hurt shareholder value and the overall health and viability of the company and Bozos like yourself want to praise and reward him for it.
The most important point you have consistently missed or glossed over is the fact that Sirius-XM doesn’t turn a profit and will not turn a profit any time soon, if ever.
Sirius-XM is NOT doing well.
It’s just doing less badly than it was back in February.
I am still waiting for you to go to another site, or mommies basement, or just anywhere besides here.
Funny. Mommy basement. Love that one. Where these trolls hide.
It closed like 4 days in a row over .40 cents. What are you talking about? Then your wait is over. Go check the charts before you spout off.
Blah Blah.
You have no credibility. See yesterdays quote. “The answer to your question is Yes, this is the beginning of a sell off that will push the stock down to the mid to low 20s.
Now as that quote failed. See today’s spin. “I’m still waiting for SIRI to post a close at 40 cents or above for 2 days in a row.”
Bashers like you are a dime a dozen. Zero originatlity. Zero ownership for anything previously posted.
I for one am glad your around. I just wish you would man up and enter in to the real forum area, so you could face the “Shearing” you so deserve.
SRF,
No spin at all.
It is the beginning of a sell off.
You guys are the ones claiming Sirius-XM is the best thing since 1000-Sheet toilet paper.
Despite all your cheerleading the stock can’t manage to close at 40 or above for 2 days in a row.
It is below 40 cents as I write this.
Try reading and comprehending.
Bah Bah. If cheerleading would make the stock rise. I’d be outfitted in your favorite teams cheer gear as I type. lol.
I’m gonna have to check my toilet paper when I locate the bathroom later. Not sure if I have 1000 sheet. Being a good pumper and all I need to meet the basic requirements. Thanks.
No shiit. They make 1000 sheet?
Hey Sheepdip.
I only have 200 sheet 2 ply. Must have missed the wipe on this one.
I have some questions for all you cheer leaders.
If all of you are correct and I’m not,
Why is SIRI still not moving up?
Why is SIRI still hovering in the upper 30 cent range?
When will we see ANYTHING that indicates that SIRI is something more than a lousy penny stock?
I’m dying to read your answers.
BTW, It should be very interesting to see how the market reacts to the Q2 results.
Here come the shorts! 😛
ba boy
based on your last comment to me,,,,,
so you are saying Mel is insane working alone in his endeavor and should be put in four point restraint?
or is it global conspiracy with in the company
Maybe he is really George Steinbrenner in disguise.
someones head needs to roll-perhaps the accusor?
No, its the shitty way Mel & his minions have turned what once was something to be proud of. Example: talking about SatRad to your friends,relatives & work associates and giving input on why SatRad was a great thing to subscribe to (I USED to say, “I subscribe to XM, but you can’t go wrong with either service”) to now not even being a point of conversation except to hear someone say, “Do you still subscribe?”, “it’s not as good as it used to be” or, “I droped my subscription because it’s just not worth it anymore and I’ve got other things I need to spend my money on”.
Folks, that’s the REAL bottom line. No amount of hanging hope on OEM contracts or used car restarts or technical minutia will make up for the overall decline of this combined service and the lack of energy you see from top management. On-line services do a better job of serving the niche groups(example:comedy),independant terra radio stations (commercial & PBS – let alone internet accessed stations)offer better Classic Rock,Blues & Bluegrass programming and their DJ’s are heads above ANYTHING SiriusXM has to offer. For SiriusXM to basically say: “We’re slightly better than terra radio but trust us,we’ll get better” ain’t something to brag about. That is one of the main reasons SiriusXM isn’t doing near as well as it should be.
Nope, you won’t see me on the sidelines cheering Mel & his minions on.
I WAS in the trenches for SatRad but not now.
so what do you suggest they do-
Get rid of Mel & his shit for brains programming staff and clone a young Ted Turner.
That’s what.
I DO need to make ONE correction:
Blues: Bill Waxman on B.B. King’s “Bluesville” is as good as they get(he came over from the XM side). He is a very knowledgeable person and I consider him more than just a DJ. They need about a dozen more like him. In fact, SiriusXM DID let about a dozen or more DJ’s/channels worth a shit go after the acquisition had a chance to set in. And a lot of you people cheered the action on because it “saved money”.
“Bluesville” is one of the channels that SiriusXM did keep. I’m scared to death that they will fuck with that eventually.
I think Recondo72 and Boo Boo are conjoined twins….
Rah Rah!
Shorts left for other territory. 20% drop on the Russell rebalance. They have CIT and C and many others to work on. They are back on ETFC’s neck again.
Why bother coming back to this when the made a killing and got out cheap on the rebalance.
Rah Rah!
I agree regarding the penny stock statement. One year later. It’s a penny stock for sure.
I’ve said before and I’ll say it AGAIN, nothings really gonna happen good with this stock at currently PPS unless and until the long awaited ‘UPTICK RULE’ is reinstated !!!!!
Then we might get just a little breathing room……………………..
If the future of this stock is reliant on the SEC to act on the common investors behave, you may as well sell now. Just imagining the SEC as the only hope for this stock is so scary I won’t think it.
No, it ain’t that bad yet. Sirius will do better in time no thanks to the SEC, the DOJ, the FCC and everybody else who drags their feet when it comes to the average American investor. They’ve already proven they are not for us.
Let’ see….
Music channels filled with endless DJ chatter and countless jingles after every song — not to mention the fact that there is a Morning Zoo talk show hosted by college interns on one of the most popular channels that is supposed to be playing music.
This service has done nothing but replicate FM Radio, the very thing that people are already turned off on.
Meanwhile, Internet radio plays more music, deeper playlists and has better sound quality.
It’s no wonder people aren’t optimistic about SiriusFM.
Couldn’t say it better myself……….
Sirius will replace existing OnStar options in GM cars. “This company (SIRI), has a lot going for it”, thinks Jerry MacMayer, analyst from Columbia.
“Google deal, SIRI – Internet in cars, plus auto sales are up after Obama’s cash for junker program.
Stock might finaly no longer be a penny-stock”