Comments on: Sirius Xm Q1 2009 Preview

By: mlongj

mlongj — Mon, 04 May 2009 22:05:42 +0000

I do not think that there will be negative subs for the quarter. This is just my opinion, but I would expect an additional 10,000 or so added to count. We will have to see what happens, but there are indications that the subs will not decline as the customer retention is at full force. Just call and try to turn off the service. It is not that easy as they have been instructed to sweeten the pot, so to speak, for those thinking deactivation.

Wouldn’t it be something if the company reports a gain of .o1 per share. It could happen.

Long SiriusXM

By: Moviemakr

Moviemakr — Mon, 04 May 2009 01:52:02 +0000

Hey Tyler and Everyone, The movie about SiriusXM is on schedule for it’s release and we hope to include last minute POSITIVE news from SiriusXM. We appreciate your take on things! Best, Stock Shock @ http://www.stockshockmovie.com

By: Geoff

Geoff — Sun, 03 May 2009 12:54:54 +0000

Or at least stop flying everywhere on private jets, right? Plenty of CEOs of profitable companies fly commercial.

By: sxminvestor

sxminvestor — Sun, 03 May 2009 00:54:45 +0000

There has been a significant change in the caliber of customer service in their retention dept based on calls I have made. There was a very different experience when calling and switching receivers and when I canceled an XM receiver because of getting a new sub pre-installed in a car I just leased. Also on the weekend I am getting women from the Caribbean (Jamaica) and they have a very attractive accent and sound so pleasant and helpful. Much better than an Indian accent (irritates me to no degree)

Bottom line, they are doing some things that are very positive towards retention and Brandon may have something on his article just posted recently on Satwaves, but the question is, were these eforts too late to save Q! ?

Finally, I asked the cust service rep at Siius about new activations and she said it has really picked up in the past few weeks. She said it was ever since Obama gave all the $ to the car companies. I think it is more to do with the heavy advertising on the web.

My opinion is that it will not be quite as bad as Tyler thinks for subs and I think Q2 will be better and then Q3 & 4 will be back to nice growth again.

Whatever the sub situation is, the cash flow will be very positive because of price increase, best of and many subs paying up front. It may be possible for a .01 profit or break even this quarter because of the big cash influx. This may drop back down in Q2 & 3, but if Sirius bobs above water for once, then we could see a double from .38 cents for at least a little while.

By: Sirius Lee

Sirius Lee — Sat, 02 May 2009 20:46:51 +0000

I loved the 1st comment by Mark about wanting a time machine to get to Thursday right away. I hope it’s a two seater (with Sirius) so I can ride along. I recently bought 6500 shares at .45 with part of my tax refund then added another 2300 shares at .40 as I was getting worried it would climb the few days prior to May 7ths big report.
Yeah I am under a few hundred and wish I’d have waited a few days later to buy. Funny I bought the first batch just after it spiked to .60 thinking it would keep going but of course my luck put a stop to that. I am thinking about putting my last grand into them before thursday but thats putting all of my eggs in one basket. I look at it this way….I can lose my 6 grand or lose part of it, break even, make 6 grand off of it, or who knows, maybe hit 40 or 50k in a year or two (best case scenario). Who knows, it could hit $50 a share in several years. All eggs in one basket is not a good idea but from what I have been reading is that this thing is poised to strike big, real big and I want to ride that wave to a debt free existance and then some. Good luck to all.

By: Max

Max — Sat, 02 May 2009 17:20:55 +0000

True Cost-Cutting should include the reduction in the pay of Mel Karmazin to $1.00 annually.

So sorry his stock options haven’t provided him with enough to live on, but, out of the mouth of babes, Melvin spoke: “A CEO’s report cards is the company’s PPS”.

Take the pay cut, Mr. Report Card!

By: Whynot

Whynot — Sat, 02 May 2009 17:12:36 +0000

Good, honest article Tyler. I agree we will lose subs, but who cares and that’s to be expected!! All of the negatives are built into this price and I can’t see anything negative happening on May 7th. Sideways maybe, but not negative.

SIRI will show even MORE considerable costs savings, synergies, channel parter plans with Direct TV, Apple, etc and BEAT the Q1 75 Million in profit which we need to do, in order to beat the 300 Million that SIRI provided for 09 guidance.

All up from here friends (though it may take until Q3 to realize it).

Cheers,
-WhyNot

By: xmsiri

xmsiri — Sat, 02 May 2009 15:53:20 +0000

The real question TYler is how many cars were built in the 4th quarter 2008 vs. 1st quarter 2009. I would think at least 750,000 more cars were built in the 1st quarter 2009. I would guess they lost between 150-250,000 subs. Mel is trying hard to manage expectations and I would think he help back some 4th quarter subs to roll into 1st quarter. I am sure he did so on “best of” revenue. There are accounting rules that would allow that.

By: imromo24

imromo24 — Sat, 02 May 2009 15:05:38 +0000

CNN, ESPN and the talk shows etc that are ad supported could be activated for free and that would increase the listener base which would increase the value/cost of advertising on those channels.

The only thing holding this back would be any of the national advertising arrangements that the NAB and FCC have enforced.

By: imromo24

imromo24 — Sat, 02 May 2009 15:03:02 +0000

shutting plants down won’t affect sales. They are shutting down because there is too much product on the lots. That product still has to be sold. When it does get sold they will increase production.