Sirius XM Puts 2009 Debt Issues To Rest
It is with great pleasure that I announce that moments ago Sirius XM issued a press release that puts to rest once and for all its entire 2009 debt issues.With those issues now resolved, it now appears that Sirius XM has resolved the main sticking points that were addressed in my recent article.
“Mel Karmazin, Chief Executive Officer of SIRIUS XM Radio, said, “We are excited to have closed the second and final phase of our investment agreement with Liberty Media. It is an example of the confidence our lenders and Liberty have in our business model. These transactions resolve all of the uncertainty surrounding the company’s and its subsidiaries’ debt maturing in 2009. Having addressed our near-term financial obligations, we remain focused on continuing to deliver on all the promise of the merger of SIRIUS and XM — a more efficient company offering the best programming through new packages to more subscribers.””
The press release goes on to to explain most of the details of the transaction, which gives Liberty an aggregate of 12.5 million shares of new preferred stock convertible into 40% of the common stock of SIRIUS XM. An SEC 8K filing is to follow.
Position: Long Sirius XM
Too bad you scared the hell out of people last night and they sold and are now real pissed at you !
yeah. You are right. I should only write about positive sirius related news and keep material facts out of it.
Like Sirius will not have 1 retail sub next year, right ?
Having looked at stores … I’m really clueless about where the retail adds are coming from, nobody seems interested in selling the gear right now.
This may change a lot if the retail strategy becomes clearer … which equipment is staying, which is going etc.
No good being pissed at people for writing about what’s on their mind.
I’m pissed at his sub projection that makes no sense and he won’t admit it !
Never let the facts get in the way of a good story!
2 million sub loss is a fact ?
Brandon your facts were wrong admit it will you!!!!!
this was nothing more than good bussiness poker played by 2 of the real pro’s(MEL and Malone)nothing else,as i have posted on here.when the cc comes you will see better expense control on content(Oprah annc) and improved synergies.
We are off to the races fellas,hope no one sold yesterday or today for the reasons Brandon wrote…
VERY long Siri
We should get some information on the facts when the company has it’s conference call. I’ll be real interested to see what if any guidance they give us. I doubt though that it will include negative sub growth in the neighborhood of 2 million. We shall see.
The facts I’m referring to were Sirius’ statements.
I gave an opinion on sub growth which I admitted was being heavily challenged. Where did I state it as fact?
I was just going to drop this and I will after this last statement just because it’s not worth it since you won’t correct your “opinion”
Your “Opinion” was backed up by your mathmatical figures and you did not include aftermarket retail.
Can you admit you miscalculated and forgot about that small little pice of the puzzle ?
I did not forget. I had stated the previous day in the forums exactly what my position was and is. I had a pleasant conversation with homer regarding this very issue.
We can agree to diagree, but I feel that until the company does something to promote its overpaid talent, that the retail channel is as useful as the rental car channels.
we got lift off
Why is the stock still not moving?
The market’s retarded … bad news is bad news and good news is no news or bad news.
The shorts holding it down to cover little by little.
Also, it is a 40% dilution for sure now, so maybe this news needs to settle in.
The fact that it is safe is time to celebrate and have some beers tonight !!
So a good Bull–it Story comes First than the Facts. Its really Sad to hear someone like you say that. That means that you only write on things that benefit you not the reader or the Investor!!
Not only is that Sad to hear but also very on Professional.
So.how many insiders knew todays announcement re liberty loans 40 min ago- and bought stock yesterday or this am-
you guys with all this tech stuff on level two- will have the answer-
The insiders made a 7percent gain on their money in 30 min and you know what- it wasnt even news worthy
manipulation is everywhere Mr Matthews.
un-Professional
Brandon-
The people who are bashing you for writing an article stating what you believed at the time are ungrateful and ought to be thinking twice about their posts. That’s the society we live in. People love you when you tell them what they want to know or when your predictions turn out to be right. If you are right a number of times but once are mistaken they have something pissy to say.
I, for one, owe you, Tyler, Charles and all the others who have given constructive comments on this board (whether opinions of good news or bad).
I am sure you are relieved with today’s news, but one can only go on what one knows at the time.
Thanks for all your efforts – they are greatly appreciated!!!!!
thank you.
The people that are bashing me for the most part are posters who know I get scoops first and I have been a thorn in the side of many a short for many years.
How many shorts do you think just got caught with their pants down? Glad I could assist. People kept asking why I was still long. Foolish mortals.
Brandon,so now you are saying you knew about the phase 2 agreement and diliberately wrote that story to screw the shorts?You are nuts and self agrandizing (sic).and you call yourself a journalist.that is no better than the shorts or MM’s
I had no knowledge of nothing. I just reported the information that was public. How any individual used that information is up to the individual.
Oh my goodness Brandon, the timing on your story yesterday could not have been worse! Thats ok I think you let your emotions get in the way of the real facts but I still consider you a smart guy.
You just hate retail, the iPhone, used cars, and misjudged what Mel would do, and quickly. Maybe you are just overworked.
TYLER,
GET RID OF BRANDON NOW! This Jerk is a pathological NutJob. I demand that this idiot gets the boot from Sirius Buzz!
The news outlets are all strangely silent on this ….
Calm down people. THe only pathological nutjob is Sirius stock itself. It has acted like a manic depressive psychotic on speed.
RETAIL ???? It seems like every website I visit has banner
ads for SIRIUS. The web advertising appears to have increased over the past several months.
Hopefully, this strategy will be talked about during
the 3/17 CC.
Ok, everyone. It is time to support the stock and start buying it up to prevent the shorts from getting out real low. There is weight on it now so they can get out before it springs up to .20 cents.
This is really excellent news. Remember they can raise prices right about the time that debt comes due. That is huge. The cable business model improved once they locked in subs and started raising prices. A 50% price increase is 1 billion dollar increase in cash flow assuming they lose 15% of their customers. I hope Mel releases lots of other good news on the call…I think he might.
Brandon,
I admit that your post last night was unnerving, but all you did was report the facts about the SEC filing. I, for one, disagreed with your analysis of it, but if people are going to be investing in a penny stock they should be able to do some analysis on their own and not just bash the bearer of bad news, or even bad analysis. You keep on reporting what you want. Anyone with a few brains can sort things out on their own and make up their own minds wether they will sell or buy. Come on people, you’re all blessed with brains. Use them for something other than just reading this blog. If you can’t, then sell out and be done with it.
Well isn’t THAT special!
SEC charges 14 specialists with improper trading-link:
Including Goldman Sachs and Knight !
SEC charges 14 specialists with improper trading
By John Spence
Last update: 1:40 p.m. EST March 4, 2009
Comments: 20
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — The Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday said it brought enforcement actions against 14 specialist firms for illegal trading. The securities regulator said the firms have agreed to settle the charges by paying a total of about $70 million in disgorgement and penalties. The SEC said it settled with 14 specialist firms: Botta Capital Management LLC.; Equitec Proprietary Markets LLC; Group One Trading LP.; Knight Financial Products LLC; Goldman Sachs Execution & Clearing L.P.; SLK-Hull Derivatives LLC; Susquehanna Investment Group; TD Options LLC; Automated Trading Desk Specialists LLC; E-Trade Capital Markets LLC; Melvin Securities LLC; Melvin & Company LLC; Sydan LP; and TradeLink LLC. End of Story
Um…this is kinda BIG news yes? So then why are we hearing Zippity-friggin-do-dah from the media about this? Hmm?
CNBC?……NADA
Fox?……..Niet!
MSNBC?…..Zilch!
In fact aside from the ONE tiny blurb on Yahoo news….I haven’t heard BUPKUS.
Weird no?
But then again, what HASN’T been weird about being in this stock?
Good news is not something they’re looking for right now, and they’re all NAB members.
It is kind of ironic. The story yesterday was picked up by media outlets who have NEVER picked up one of my stories within minutes, plus a host of others and yet they completely ignore this news.
Does this mean Sirius has no debt due until 2011?
Great 2 hear Brandon !!! Thanks 4 Ur Honest Reporting both Good & Bad, Right, or even sometimes wrong !! After all we R Human & do occasionally err ! Don’t Let the Zombie’s Get U down with their Ungratitude, this is TRULY Great News!!
120k Long&counting
Brandon you are posting stories related to the SEC charges of Goldman and others and it has absolutely nothing to do with the Sirius refinancing story.
Brandon you just basically blew it yesterday. You were completely wrong in your entire analysis of the whole situation. Posting unrelated stories doesn’t change that. You blew it man. Own up.
Your as pissed off as me.
Also notice when Brandon does not want you to reply anymore, the blue “reply” is not present anymore. Look above at some of them above.
No I am not pissed at Brandon. I actually think he is the smartest guy on the site. Shocked?
I just think he speaks from emotion instead of using his head sometimes. I often do that too. I mean this post from the forums a couple of days ago says all emotion to me. He just blew it-
Brandon said –
“My problem is as follows:
This is all about the year ending 2008. If they are doubting their ability to continue based on current economic conditions, bear in mind that January and February auto sales will play a major role in the decision to continue as is.
When the company speaks of doing an assessment, it must conclude that the economy will not turn around in time to make the business viable for any reasonable period of time.
Conclusion: BK prior to the 17th. You heard it here first.”
Man Brandon!
You can only “reply” to “x” number of levels.
And brandon probably determines “x” at will. hahaha.
It is hard coded into the system. It was 5 but I shortened it to 4 a couple of weeks ago. Some people still have the old .js file saved locally so, they can still post to 5 levels but, for newcomers, it is 4 levels. I although I am thinking about lowering it to 2 or 3. It’s a little messy IMO. People still haven’t realized that they comment at the same level rather then starting a new level.
actually, I believe that after too many sub-replies to a post, the reply button is no longer there. something like a tree of four or five subsets and it disappears. he is not removing it.
i see a nice spike afterhours lets see
Mr, Hartlieb and the “tryanddestrysirius” crew “Blow Me”
HOGWASH MUSCLE , READ THE FILING, It was all about the
funding and the funding issue is now HISTORY !!!!!
“Management has not yet completed its evaluation as to whether substantial doubt exists relative to the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern for a reasonable period of time. A significant element of that evaluation relates to uncertainties associated with funding of amounts stipulated in the aforementioned Investment Agreements. These uncertainties may not be resolved by the time the Company files its Form 10-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In the event such uncertainties remain unresolved, management anticipates that KPMG LLP’s auditors’ report relative to the Company’s 2008 consolidated financial statements will contain an explanatory paragraph indicating substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.
In addition to resulting in termination of further funding pursuant to the Investment Agreements, the inclusion of such a paragraph by KPMG LLP would result in a default under certain indebtedness of the Company, XM Holdings and XM Satellite Radio Inc. (“XM Inc.”) which defaults, if not cured or waived prior to the expiration of the applicable grace period, would result in an event of default under other indebtedness of the Company, XM Holdings and XM Inc. Such events of default, if they occur, provide the lenders the right to demand all amounts due under the respective agreements immediately due and payable.”
Well, the “negative spin” articles about todays good news are beginning to roll in. Heres a quote from one of them:
“After the intitial announcement last month, Sirius shares doubled (before eventually falling back almost to where they were before the announcement). They didn’t get quite the same bounce today, though they were up 10 percent on the news. That’s probably because the company still has a host of problems to overcome. They include a decrease in consumer spending, the rapid decline of the auto industry (which drives a lot of subscription sales), and more debt coming due in a couple years.”
Of course there is a decrease in consumer spending and YES…we all know about the auto industry. But the part that gets me is NOW they are harping on the debt that is due in a couple of years. After all their BLAH BLAH BLAHING about how it was the 2009 debt holding the stock down…ON and ON.
So the 2009 debt gets taken care of and Sirius is NOT going to declare BK…and WHAT do we hear from the media???? Trumpets and fanfare of congratulations?
Nope. LOL….the bashers are all like….”Um…did we say the 2009 debt??? We MEANT the 2011 and beyond debt. Yeah! Thats RIGHT!”
Gimme a FRiGGiN BREAK!!!!!
So this is how it’s gonna be? Bring it bashers! We’ve got a foundation under our feet now. You’ve thrown your worst negatives at us for over 2 years now and we’re still standing mutha F’ers.
For the first time in a long time, I feel we’ve got the edge. It’s going to take time, but the momentum is on our side now. Little by little we’re gonna take our stock back and bury the shorts who haven’t covered.
This is our time. Long and Strong baby. Long and Strong.
It’s gonna be awhile, but I feel a huge weights been lifted.
My sentiments exactly! DTV invlovment at this level is nothing to sneeze at! They don’t just give $500million+ in the worst economy in moder history, and stand pat, and watch their investment fail!
I too feel a great sense of relief, even as much as the first-round of financing…I mean, how much lower are you going to try and bash-short this stock, whose funding is secured through 2011?
Brandon, you and SIRIUS are emotional and creative. I love it. I can’t believe I have stuck around from $2/$3 to $.05. Who knows where we go from here. I am sure the bashers will put a negative spin on this. Let’s see, will the world still be around on 2010? That would definitely cut the sub count. But the satellites would still be spinning. Bashers gone, SIRIUS still humming.
i also just read that one report has them having to pay all the debt in 2010–nice…
all i’m doin’ is sittin’ back chillin’… i mean chillin’ hard.. You see I’ve done the math…
reel to reel….phongraph….record player…am radio…
fm radio…….8 track…cassette…cd….mp3….SIRIUSXM…
so for me it’s like laying back and waiting for the chick you’ve been wanting to knock down for so long and she has been elusive and unresponsive… and the minute you show disinterest… here she comes…
I never doubted Mel or Leon Black… these guys have serious resumes and i never believed that they would tarnish their legacy(s) by ending with a “bankruptcy”…. Nah!! couldn’t see it…
then enter John Malone…. invests $530MM of his own cheese into SIRI i’m sure after he had a team of accountants pooring over the books for weeks looking for any signs of weakness…. subsequent investment of $.5Billion….
ay yo brandon matthews…. your “personal” stock went down son… after what you posted last nite… you lost points kid… nuthin you post going forward will mean any thing to “nawfjerseykid.backspin43” and any posts will be viewed with critical skepticism….
Peace out
“the Fat Boys are back…. and you know they could never be wack”…”
LOL! I just spent a G on other stocks instead of buying 10k on siri this morning because I became disinterested!!!!
Dead on…you can all thank me now.
I think investors are just a little gunshy after seeing the details of the original Malone plan, so now some bigger players will want to see the SEC filing before jumping in.
FROM REUTERS :
The closing dissolves the specter of bankruptcy from the company since the second loan was contingent on Sirius auditors not issuing any “going concern” qualifications on the company’s 2008 audited results — which usually mean a company is likely to go bankrupt without additional financing.
Free of its money problems, Sirius must quickly address operational questions, such as how it will sustain growth as the automotive market slumps and as consumers, worried about their jobs and retirement accounts, rethink discretionary spending.
So you are saying that reuters is picking up on what I was saying yesterday. Hmmm. Intersting, huh?
Look at this motley crap. I wonder how they got this idea?
http://www.fool.com/investing/.....-know.aspx
They are FOOLS !
Motley fools need to now save their breath for their blowup dolls as they watch the PPS grow from here.
Well someone must like the news either that or some shorts are covering someone just bought about over 3 million shares right at closing.
I have news for you. According to my screen, 23 million shares at the close priced at .1450
Brandon,
What do you think this will do in terms of share price short term. We all thought debt was the key issue holding down this stock. I know there is some dilution in the stock now but with the burden of debt behind us for a while shouldnt the street be ready to pick this up. It seems longer term this is a good investment now and we know that siriusXm is still saying 300 to 400 million before taxes 09. They are also now saying 2010 break even or positive cash so where does all this leave us.
Id like to believe 14.5 is a little undervalue at this point.
We still have the issue on growth in the way. Short term we should move up nicely. Today was used to allow all of the short people to cover. With debt off the table, the stock should actually begin a real uptrend as shorts will have lost all reason to be involved in the stock going forward.
Mel eluded to the fact that the company could now move forward to grow the business. That’s what we need to see. We need to see a plan that not only grows the base but creates excitement among wall street. OEM subs are not doing it.
Agreed Brandon!
Even if we were to ultimately fail, I know in good-faith that everthing has been done that could be done; SDAR consolidated and fully-financed! What more could we want now in the worst Market since the Great Depression!
Today sure made my weekend; Yesterday I was too depressed to do anything…accept undertake the process of expecting-bearing the worst, a b/k! It’s not easy to shake-off years of hard-work and belief, and go about your life like “all-is-well”; It’s a process, much like dying that ultimately call for one to “fully accept fate”; Now I feel that I don’t have to accept the fate-of-death with SIRI, at least not for a good long time; Also, re-upped both my subs, to lock-in the rate-increases on the second-sub and web-listening…but I wasn’t going to do that until I was fully convinced b/k was “off-the-table”!
GLTUA…we still need it, a lot!
Aye-O………….Gonna do the same TW………..!!!
Throwing out some ideas (brainstroming)after I had a few Rolling Rocks(a beer in a green bottle, good stuff). Gotta market to the younger crowd! Portable & aftermarket installs. Getting Sat. radio into homes both internet & w/better antenna applications. Grow & promote new talk formats from within. Promote SRX by going to college campuses on weekends across the country w/ DJ’s & great guest hosts (make it a happening so students hope their campus is selected). Maybe even a channel for fun things like trivial pursuit where the listening audiance plays along(maybe on Sat. night. Would be great for parties. If it where on line you could have audiance participation & prizes. These games could be on different channels w/ different topics. Going back to the college scene, have 2 or 3 colleges each week compete in a trivial pursuit format. With brackets that lead to a March madness type hype that goes across the country(not all kids r into sports). The winning college wins some type of huge prize, Trophy & bragging rights for the year. What about simulcast concerts using the internet? What about on the comedy channel, having a weekly new talent contest that works like American Idol? By the way I was listening to a rap or hip -hop channel w/ my 19 yr. old son. The 2 DJ’s were hillarious! I’m not into either genre but I could listen to these guys for hours. Get them on Leno, they r future star talent from within. What about a self help channel? Lord knows after u read all these ideas I have, u know I’m in need of self help. Gotta go pee, BYE!
I’m back(yes I washed my hands). One last thing, cut Brandon a break. This whole Sirius issue really rides on one thing. How long is this reccesion or depression gonna last and can we ride it out. Because Sat Radio’s time has come (versus FM)but are we at the right place at the right time? That’s the big IF. Later & have a great weekend. LOOOOOOOOOONG Siruis XM!
Don’t get me so excited 14.5 ? I think you meant .145
14.5 makes me a millionaire.
Now would be the perfect time to hit us with the Iphone application.
All of you have a great weekend.
Sirius XM can now focus on growing their business and extending their content to other media channels (Internet, XBox, Roku, etc, DirecTV, Etc.)
There are so many options for this company, and with the debt issues temporarily behind them, My Friday will be all that much better.
As an investor, and a big believer in the service, my hot goes off to Mel for getting this far.
There is work to be done, but there are many options on the table. a few additional partnerships will yeild additional reveneue streams. I look forward to more emphesis on internet delivery. IPhone, XBox, Zune, and other potential partnerships should start materializing.
Nowhere to go but Up!
Anyone have an updated amount of the total debt that Sirius has?
About Brandon’s chapter 11 article. Let’s say you hear your kid’s school may be getting a bomb threat. So you keep your kid home from school. Now what do you do? The ethical thing to do would be to call the school and scare the crap out of them. Otherwise your kid is the only survivor. A lot of good it does your kid with all his playmates dead. So you scare the hell out of everyone in your kids school. AND THEN, there is no freaking bomb threat. Should you be embarrassed that you screwed up the school day? NO. You should be honored for doing the correct thing, even if the rumor didn’t come to fruition. That’s what Brandon did. We all owe him some gratitude!
After hours bidding above .15, so let’s see where it closes tonight and have a few drinks this weekend in celebration of the fact that Sirius survived and they can now concentrate on getting product hip and exciting & spend $ on marketing.
Let’s think positive for Monday and see if we could start to trend higher and shake all the shorts out.
I’m going try and stay off until Sunday night – need a break !
Have a good weekend all.
Sirius can very well increase their sub count 15%,”their vig” and become possitive EBITDA soon enough with the new app release that is in the works. 2.5 million new subs and cost savings are looking more likely. GLTA longs.
Now that the 2009 debt is not an issue….what about setting an aggressive share buy back initiative?
In fact, Brandon wrote about this scenario back in August. It’s also one I’ve written about numerous times. F@$K the reverse split. Show me some awesome growth in the next few quarters despite the economy, become free cash flow positive AND do a share buy back.
THAT would certainly knock the shorts on their ass once and for all. Take the RS option off the table completely. The shorts and media eat the negative spin of a RS up. THe RS is the “new BK or Debt”. Now that the threat of a BK and the 2009 debt issues are removed….wouldn’t a share buyback take everyone by surprise?
Couple that with the iphone app and we’re good to go. IMHO. 🙂
Man, Mel Looks Tired, Exhausted but relieved in this picture. Was this picture related to the story?
One year ago this month the stock price trade at 3.89. Now we trade at just under 4% of that. Hip Hop. That’s me jumping up and down. Somehow this brings about mass excitement and joy. Meanwhile thousands and thousands of honest investors have been completely wiped out and left without any chance of recouping their investment. Under Mel’s leadership we have billions of share dilution and we have just sold 40% of the company for pennies on the dollar. Hip Hop. You gotta be kidding me.
The “Real” story here, is the thousands who have permanently damaged forever, by this gross mismanagement. Write that article!
And spare me the “I should have known lecture”. .14. And people are running wild in the streets. Wow.
Twitter that.
I got your twitter right here!!!! lol 🙂
so cal,
you can’t really blame mel for the entirety of the drop to 5 cents (now 15 cents AH friday)…
the recession-depression (essentially a 100 year event) caused a good part of the drop…
IMHO, the recession-depression took down this company from somewhere in the 50 cent to $1.50 range.
the drop from $3 to $4 was caused by mismanagement of the merger and failing to obtain financing options earlier, and for lack of a better work “collusion” by others to destroy the company.
So, IMHO, the drop from $3 to about $1 was caused by mismanagement of executives and “collusion” of others (just to be clear, IMHO, the management was not part of the “collusion,” I don’t agree with Hartleib here).
IMHO, the drop from $1 to 5 cents was caused by the recession-depression.
On the other hand, one should plan for a 100 year flood, so maybe this should have been planned for…
rambling thoughts, I am still half asleep.
SCRF..Friggin…
All I can say at this point is that we are still standing..and I am glad we all are
vaporgold
This is still an opportunity to buy at these levels. For those that have remained long on this stock, the time is now to average down. Certainly before the reverse split that seems to be looming. A year ago I was at 3.25 with about 40000.00 invested. Since that time I have slowly increased shares on the way down and have achieved .202. Of course I now have over 400,000 shares but the average is key to recouping the losses on paper. Hopefully it will climb over this average going forward and all will not have been for nothing. After all, it could be much worse at this point. It could have been in the pink sheets by now. Still a great product and the oversight provided by Liberty should be a positive going forward.
Long Sirius XM
Me too Vapor. Standing is good. Much better than curled up in the fetal position with one’s thumb in their mouth while being beaten by an angry mob wielding clubs thats for sure.
But how long will we be standing when the angry mob starts descending upon us again?
I’m not content with just standing. I want to RUN. Run away from the angry mob and run away from a Reverse Split. I want growth. I want Free Cash flow. I want stock buy backs. In a word…strength. All the things Mel promised a merger would bring.
All we’ve gotten is pain so far. Enough with the “ugly” deals. I’ve never seen a company promise so much to it’s shareholders only to end up punching them in the gut and breaking those promises. Enough already.
Friggin…and fellow stockholders
We don’t have to wait to long for the Q4 2008 report.We should get a pretty good idea of projected growth for the balance of this year.
With the automakers having such a tough time, I hope we see some I phone applications and agreements to off set the pull back in growth on the auto side.
Does anyone have any idea what an I phone with SiriusXM would bring in growth??????????
vaporgold
friggin,
Exactly my sentiments. This horse has been stuck in the gate far too long. Time to get out on the track and see what this nag can do!
If you want to help the company through this tough time, it is simple!
Give a radio to someone you know with a 55.00 gift card.
Company gets a new sub and rev. and you help your investment as well.
It is a win win for investors!
Will the average long ever cach up? We always seem to be one step behind the big boys.
Many of us longs got caught buying above $5. Come on, admit it.
Most of us held as it dropped into the 3s.
Some of us were going to cash out at the end of 2006 when “suddenly” rumors of a merger between Sirius and XM started surfacing.
So we held.
Then in early 2007, the merger was “officially” announced, and we decided to hold. Many bought more in an attempt to average down. After all, the merger should only take a few months and a “POP” back to $5 or more was all but assured by pundits and prophets alike.
Month after month we waited.
Finally 18 months later it went thru. Before we got a chance to sell, it was reveled that Mel signed his first “UGLY” deal and the stock plummeted.
We watched as it sunk to a buck and then lower. Many bought on the way down thinking SURELY we have to POP back up.
But it didn’t pop. It kept dropping. Again and again. Lower and lower. Into true penny stock land where the MM had FULL control. We were truly at their mercy now. They could buy and sell to their hearts content. Big money made money on penny moves while the average investor was stuck.
Many of us at this point were only able to lower our break even price to around $1 or there abouts. An absurdly LOW amount to be sure(or so we thought) but one that was still light years away from penny land.
The shorts and bashers wanted to cover, so they created more fear about BK and the 2009 debt. The stock dropped for a day to .05 cents and then POPPED to nearly .20 cents. The MMs once again made a killing. They made a killing shorting it down from $3 to .05 cents and then again at .05 cents to .20 cents.
The average investor never had a chance. Many of us just didn’t have the cash on hand to buy HUGE amounts when it hit below .10 cents. I put as much as I could in and was only able to average down to just under a buck. Still far out of reach.
So much for the short squeeze we were all hoping would save our asses. It eluded us like the infamous “post merger pop” did.
And now we are left with our average price shares of $1 give or take a few pennies….with another “ugly” deal between Mel and Liberty that leaves us even MORE diluted.
Once again we are eating the dust of the MMs. Too late to the game to party with the big boys, we are left holding the bag.
Do we average down even more? The temptation is there. After all, the 2009 debt is not an issue until 2011 now. BK is off the table. SURELY we will move up from here.
But wait. The specter of BK has been replaced with the NEW boogie man….the dreaded Reverse Split. Once again Sirius shareholders have a ticking time bomb and are playing the anxiety causing game of BEAT the CLOCK.
You’re thinking, can I buy enough shares to lower my break even point to .50 cents? SURELY Sirius can pop to .50 cents on good news going forward. Theres no threat of being delisted just yet, so I MUST have a good chance of still getting out right?
Yes, being wiped out in a BK filing is not going to happen now that Liberty has stepped in….but the threat of a RS is very real. It has taken center stage and is the longs new enemy.
If a 1 for 50 reverse split happens now, ALL your hard work averaging down from $5 to where it is now will be for naught. You will lose practically ALL your shares.
Yes, this would be good for someone thinking about getting into Sirius for the first time, but anyone whose been holding these last few years….who suffered thru all the ups and downs and supported this company thru thick and thin will be annihilated. Wiped out. GONE.
IF you have A LOT of cash on hand(who does in this economy) you can risk it and really average down aggressively. It might be a good gamble, and if you are lucky, you’ll catch a pop to almost .50 cents and be able to get out before the reverse split happens.
But if you’re like me and many others who are tapped out and can only average down in small chunks at a time, that MAY get you averaged down a few pennies….you may not make it.
Either you’ll have the will power to cash out for a huge loss but still SOME money….or you’ll cling to hope that THIS time Mel and company won’t sucker punch the average shareholder again.
What will you do?
How much money will you continue to throw into this stock?
When will this insanity be over? How much hell does the average long have to endure? Haven’t we been thru enough? We waited for the merger and got screwed. We waited to hear about the 2009 debt and got screwed. EVERY time we wait for some BIG thing that is going to finally part the clouds….we get SCREWED.
ANd now we are waiting to see if a Reverse Split happens or if the promised “synergies” will save us.
It’s always something.
And if at the end of all this waiting and being trapped….a Reverse Split happens and we lose it all….it will have been the longest, most drawn out hell I’ve ever experienced in ANY stock…..but at least it will be over.
Having said that….I am stuck once again. Do I throw my small chunks of money into Sirius to keep averaging down in the hopes of lowering my break even point to such a low level that I can FINALLY get out? Or do I throw this money into all the other stocks I’ve been thinking about these last couple of years?
One thing is for sure, if I throw it into Sirius and lower my break even point to .50cents….and I am lucky enough to get a “POP” to .50 cents….I will SELL my shares faster than you can say “UNSOPHIStICAtED INVESTOR!”
I will not pause. I will not hesitate. I will not waver for ONE NANOSECOND and think….maybe it’s going higher.
No.
I will be gone and happy.
I just want out of this stock. It is the most manipulated equity I have ever been in or will ever be in. I will breathe a huge sigh of relief and dance around the house should I be lucky enough to get out with my original investment or half my investment for that matter.
A reverse split does not wipe out shareholders as you have suggested.
The value and market cap of the company will rise or fall based on how well it does in generating cash in the future — a reverse split does nothing to affect that.
Yes a reverse split will reduce the number of shares each shareholder owns, but the value of those shares will rise in inverse proportion the ratio of the reverse split.
As there are examples of stocks going down more after a reverse split, there are other examples of stocks going up afterwards — but it has much less to do with the reverse split than the performance of the company afterwards.
If you are concerned about “manipulation”, then having less shares outstanding, and each share worth proportionately more should be welcomed. Also a higher share price (especially if the reverse split takes the price over $5), should attract more interest from institutions that won’t touch a penny stock.
In your example — a 50:1 reverse split, shares outstanding (after Malone dilution) would go from roughly 6.5 billion, to 130 million and the value of those shares, all else being equal, from 14 cents, to $7 a share.
I don’t expect a 50:1 reverese split, but they will certainly do one at some level to get the price over $1 later this year, if necessary. If they are still on schedule to reach CFBE this year and CF Positive next year, it won’t be a bad thing.
Well Put! Wow, exactly my story, but I have my dropped my average to .65 per share.
Do your best to keep your comments TO THE POINT! Seriously man, I don’t want to have to impose a comment character limit.
I’m going to Circuit City right now – 2 days left before store closes and the ExpressRC and EZ’s were 70% off 2 days ago and might be 80 – 90% now. There was still like 30 units left and they need to move them. I’ll buy 2 maybe and give to family and friends. The unit is the razor and they can get the blades themselves or a little help with a gift card like RMan says. People are lazy and need a little push and then they will become one of us “Sirians”
RMAN,
That makes a lot of sense. If we believe in the product so much, maybe we should be proactive and not wait for a white knight to swoop down and save us. I have a family member who would like satellite radio. Hell, even a basic unit gets the job done nicely. Now if we can just get a couple of million people to……… just do it!
Just came back from 3 seperate circuit city’s.
1st one – one greedy bastard had 35 radios at the register right before I walked in and would not give up 1. I had to eat breakfast 1st and take my time sipping my dam coffee. All XM Express’s and even the display models were going. Some guy grabbed the Inno for $20. Next CC, long line to register and I saw multiple XM’s in several people’s hands – too late again. 3rd CC, I picked up an Audiovox, car kit and all for $10 (used but works)
SiriusXM should get a nice bump because CC is cleared out of all inventory and you will see many get turned on in March & good to see the old inventory get wiped out.
We need more stores to liquidate.