With the debt issue behind them for 2009, it is time for Sirius XM to begin to execute on the business plan and show that their efforts make this company not only viable, but valuable. Yes, OEM sales are still painfully low, but management needs to demonstrate that merger synergies and their business model can weather the storm. Investors need to see that costs are improving, that the brand is growing, and that satellite radio will prosper even when the auto industry is in a slump.
People are tired of waiting for all of the stars to align for this equity to return to the days of 2004 and 2005. People are tired of reliance on outside parties such as GM and Ford having such a tremendous impact to the downside. In this economy people are looking for an equity that can stand on its own feet. With everyone suffering heavy losses in their portfolios, people are tentative when it comes to risk, and like it or not, there is risk in Sirius XM Radio. Until the company can outline a plan, and demonstrate that they are hitting each goal, the perception of risk will not minimize.
Satellite radio can be a cash cow, but they have yet to prove it. This is where the tenor of the company needs to come into sharp focus. This is why clear cut goals need to be established and reached for both short and long term. Investors love to hear about next year, but they are nervous now, and need some milestones for next quarter. Conference calls need to be as soon as possible, not at the last minute. If auto companies can put out numbers within a month of the quarters close, satellite radio should as well.
With this equity, everything seems to be an uncertainty. The company has the ability to remove the guesswork by simply giving the street something ti hang their hat on. Q1 ends on March 31st, then have the call by April 30th, and continue that process. The longer the street has to guess, the more risk the street associates with the equity.
There is one satellite radio company. Establish the goals, march in time, and give the investors something to know they can count on. Even if the picture is not pretty, goals and objectives can be established.
Position - Long Sirius XM Radio