A few of his numbers were however incorrect. He used 50% penetration of receivers in new cars, Siri puts this close to 55%. Lets give Siri the benefit of the doubt and say 50% of these new cars with receivers installed will turn into paying subs (Remember, the first 3-6M of these subs are free).

There is currently slightly less than 20M subs, not 21M, and the monthly churn has historically been closer to 1.6% so lets use that figure since you longs want alot of benefit of the doubt.

Using these rosier numbers for Siri performance still shows a NET LOSS for 2009. The only question is, is the 1.6% churn a monthly figure, or quarterly? This would reduce the projected losses, but still the total is a net LOSS. Also, Siri does not account for an increasing churn as more of the new car sales are sold to existing customers who will be shutting down their old receivers.

As stated earlier, in Q3 2008 Retail Subs was a net LOSS. The only new receiver released for the 4Q holidays was the XMp3, which I have only found available online. I estimate Retail for Q4, and going on into 2009 will contine to lose subscribers as EVERYTHING retail has declined in recent months.

9.1 million auto sold times 55 % penetration rate = 4,950,000 new installations.
4,950,000 new installations times 50% penetration (currently running below that) = 2,475,000 new oem subscribers.
19,700,000 subscribers times 1.6 % monthly churn = 3,782,400 deactivated subscribers.
3,782,400 – 2,475,000 = 1,307,400 subscribers to be lost in 2009

If you use the wireless transmitter, just tune your home stereo, am/fm clock radio or whatever to the same station you listen to in your car and Voila….Sirius in every room in your house!

The plug/dock & plays are the way to go if you want to listen in multiple locations for the price of one subscription. This obvious fact seems to be lost on the idiotic American public. I have had my Sportster Replay for over 3 years – moving it from car to house hundreds of times – and it still works great. If it was in the dash, I would have to drive the car into the living room. My doors are standard width; ain’t gonna happen! You brought up a good point.

I’m with you, man. All this speculation is a waste of time. This company is reluctant to disclose their wheelings & dealings, so we might as well chill as best we can. All I care about is that they have the subscribers best interest in mind. The evidence would seem to be to the contrary, but I will reserve judgment (as best I can), until this soap opera runs its course.

Hang in there. This has been HELL; I feel for all of you fine people.