Sirius XM First Quarter Review
With the first quarter of 2009 in the books, Sirius XM investors can breathe a sigh of relief. It’s official. Sirius XM began the new year at .12 and closed the first quarter of 2009 up 199% to .35. That is no small task in an overall economic environment filled with fear and doubt. The last time the company’s stock closed out a quarter positively, was the third quarter of 2007.
As I’ve stated, I don’t think anyone expected positive subscriber growth to have resulted from an abysmal first quarter. The retail channel is stagnant as distribution switches from Directed Electronics to Audiovox and new car sales were the worst in history. The street is no longer looking at subscriber numbers but instead seems to be focusing its attention on the company’s bottom line. Promotional packages such as the “best of both” and increases to revenue through Internet streaming promise at the least, a decent first quarter for the company.
Yesterday’s “not as bad as thought” auto sales data however, brings with it new possibilities that Sirius XM may have avoided negative subscriber growth. I had been negative on the company’s first quarter, yet yesterdays auto sales results inspired me to take a more bullish look at some numbers.
| OEM | January | February | March | Q1 Totals | Rate (Approx) | OEM Promo’s |
| GM | 128198 | 126170 | 155334 | 409702 | 70.00% | 286791 |
| Ford | 93041 | 99400 | 131101 | 323542 | 70.00% | 226479 |
| Chrysler | 62157 | 84050 | 101001 | 247208 | 70.00% | 173046 |
| BMW | 14329 | 15805 | 21125 | 51259 | 80.00% | 41007 |
| Daimler | 12224 | 15614 | 17348 | 45186 | 80.00% | 36148 |
| Audi | 4622 | 4653 | 6433 | 15708 | 80.00% | 12566 |
| Porsche | 1658 | 1518 | 1749 | 4925 | 80.00% | 3940 |
| VW | 17559 | 13660 | 15720 | 46939 | 80.00% | 37551 |
| Mitsubishi | 4730 | 4484 | 4620 | 13834 | 50.00% | 6917 |
| Acura | 7856 | 7659 | 9005 | 24520 | 50.00% | 12260 |
| Subaru | 12194 | 13089 | 16249 | 41532 | 50.00% | 20766 |
| Nissan | 53884 | 54249 | 66634 | 174767 | 50.00% | 87384 |
| Suzuki | 3655 | 3495 | 7981 | 15131 | 50.00% | 75565 |
| Mazda | 15420 | 16401 | 21974 | 53795 | 50.00% | 26898 |
| Kia | 22096 | 22073 | 24724 | 68893 | 100.00% | 68893 |
| Hyundai | 24512 | 30621 | 40721 | 95854 | 100.00% | 95854 |
| Honda | 71031 | 71575 | 88379 | 231985 | 50.00% | 115992 |
| Toyota | 117287 | 109583 | 132802 | 359672 | 50.00% | 179836 |
| Gross Adds | 1507858 | |||||
| Deactivated | 1285000 | |||||
| Retail | -100000 | |||||
| Net Additions | 122858 | |||||
| Total Subscribers | 19126714 |
These are by no means official numbers. The only correct number will be the number that the company reports. Getting these numbers correct is akin to picking the right lottery numbers. Don’t bet on it! The numbers are only meant to demonstrate the potential for positive subscriber growth in the first quarter.
Position: Long Sirius XM
Brandon: You may be right that expectations have been lowered enough that the stock will pop up probably to .40 – .45 on any semi-good news. I am buying back in between .25 – .30 for just that reason. Go Sirius!
Brandon, Your example is no doubt a positive. As the penetration of cars sold equiped w/ Sat Rad increases along with new avenues of selling content continues, Sirius Xm is postured to ignite when this economy starts to rebound. The synergies and cost savings of the merger along w/ Liberty’s influence can only be seen as positive. Nice work.
I think it is cars built as oppossed to sold. Overall I think worst case is minus 100,000 and best case plus 150,000. Its possible Mel held back on fourth quarter numbers knowing he had lots of good news and low expectations on subs. Also based on additions the fourth quarter is the worst for churn. I would gues they had an ok quarter and added 100,000 subs.
If they stay positive in sub additions AND the cost cutting synergies really show major meat, this can really help the PPS as when things improve, you will see a huge revenue gain–I hope they can renegociate the MLB and GM contracts to help with the cost cutting
Plus there might be a surprise before April 15th
Once the bankruptcy issue was settled, I paid for the lifetime subscription so I would not have to pay for the online service and to protect myself against any future price increases. Hopefully, a lot of other people did too. I think the 1st qtr revenue will be better than expected, whether it is deferred or not. Right now, CASH is still king.
Certified Used cars have been selling well in the first qtr. A Toyota dealer told me March was his best used vehicle month ever.
According to a Chev. dealer used car mgr., sat. radio is a popular feature.
Hopefully, SiriusXM will start providing a quarterly number on used car activations. They have the data because the VIN no. is required in any vehicle activation.
Used vehicles are going to be a critical component for the success of SiriusXM
Heard from an automotive analyst the run rate on cars being scrapped is at 13 mln./year right now.
With new vehicles selling at 9-10 mln, the inventory of vehicles should start getting better soon.
Brandon-or anyone
whats with all these 100-200 shares trading on “ask” on level two?
who would be buying 35 dollars worth of stock with each trade at about a 10 dollar fee?
LOL shorts my friend shorts
Its only a matter of time until the Car Sales Downfall reverses. Cars don’r run indefinately. People May be able to squeeze an extra year or two out of a car, but after that they will be looking for a newer one (new or used). Either way Sirius XM is positions to realize gains. Currently they are in the deep part of the valley. Its only a matter of time, before they click to a peak.
I’ve got three friends who have been holding off a buying a new car. Two of them are thinking of buying now (especially since the cost is so low right now).
I think SiriusXM has seen the worst of the car sales, and with greater penetration in to the new car marketing, I beleive their Subs for 2nd qtr will be better than last qtr.
Vapor.
You know I got out again. I know your shaking your head. lol.
Socal
WJD…why small amts then? can’t be a clandestine move for shorting, this number is available and trackable via time comparison
Hey…………….sorry guys, been missing through the ‘crap’ with other ’stuff’ like Thornburg Mortgage losing my 25G ………..Aye, aye aye………….!!!Que F-ing Dolor !!!
But back to sirius…………I sit in a living room with people who actively, on a daily basis short and sell and re-buy daily, a ton of siri……….and make thousands of dollars weekly if not daily……..and I’m a freaking Dr.!!!!!, not a stock broker !!!………..how depressing to listen to these guys making money from my/our daily excursions into this equity……..I mean, I’m losing faith here……….after the biggest, best and no subprime mortgager failure, just when the scene got better………….’YIKES’…………..who’s to say……….SIRI……has a LOAD of leeches on it’s back, and it’s bleeding real financial blood, which the St.com. vampire-types are just sucking up as well…………..
Sorry, wish I had something more positive to say, but I think when “The St.” is up against you………..somehow you ALWAYS LOSE………..!!!!!!!!
The biggest dangeer for Sirius going forward will be the tendency for all Audiovox is connected with to be junk. If QC problems get bad it could really stall this rebound.
Hey Draland. I got lost somewhere. Are these traders making money on just Sirius stock? Also, we have made a lot of progress since February. I still think we are in beginning stages of at least over one buck sooner than later. Good luck to you.
Thanks Socal ………..sort of babbled there for a bit, Doh !
Yes these are Dr.s w/a little dough, amatures who amass daily, $20-$50-G worth of SIRI at the lows of the day, and then sell over and over at whatever highs we hit and actually make several thousand dollars weekly if not daily !
Which a reverse split will end. It goes to my point that too many shares exist therefore the supply side always outweighs demand.
Ya think ?
Questions:
Wouldn’t the shorts just start knocking it down again ?
And if not, would you load up on it before, after or, does it really matter ?
Thanks !
It wouldn’t matter if they knocked the price down. I think what Brandon is getting at is this; With a R/S you are not looking at the increase in price, you are looking at the reduction of shares. When shares ended up in the hands of longs, they are basically out of the game. Right now there are billions in the game….RS would cut that down to the millions…Thus there simply isn’t enough shares regardless of how low they go…
Before……………….after………..an RS I meant…….
Dr.’s?????? draland
“back to sirius…………I sit in a living room with people who actively, on a daily basis short and sell and re-buy daily, a ton of siri……….and make thousands of dollars weekly if not daily”
“Yes these are Dr.s w/a little dough, amatures who amass daily, $20-$50-G worth of SIRI at the lows of the day, and then sell over and over at whatever highs we hit and actually make several thousand dollars weekly if not daily !”
Draland,
you sit in a living room with Dr.’s in it? on a daily basis?
are you the guy they picked up in Loxley Alabama with love letters in his car?
Not sure who this Alabama guy is, but yeah, at least 2X/week I sit to TEACH Clinic, and observe colleagues of mine trading the Hell out of SIRI !!
Why, Dude……?
Perhaps they could be searching “up to date ” on their little computers instead- to improve their brains CME status instead of mindless activites- obviously if you are who you say you are-these cant be but residents or sniffling acne prone prepubescent med students.
Nice to know you’re in the saddle though teaching future “Dr.s”
Dude? ummm- Do you wear jeans and walk with a limp and cane as well?
Thats why.
Yeah!!
Call me “House”!!
I wish!!
LOL!!
No, sad to say…………it doesn’t take much apparently to drop several thousand K one day, and sell them the next, or haven’t you seen how this stock keeps bouncing up and down, between 3-4 cents, no matter which level it gets to !! Sickening, but these Guys have all the CME they need,’ABIM’ certified Attendings, with loads of Dough, and don’t mind pulling in several thousand extra of our hard earned dollars for “PENNIES ON A SHARE”…………..Maybe Brandon’s RS Theory is right ??!
BTW………….Teach them I do; Basically, How to Respect Human Beings and Life in General……………But Should Get their ‘fair Share’ as well,