siriWith the first quarter of 2009 in the books, Sirius XM investors can breathe a sigh of relief. It's official. Sirius XM began the new year at .12 and closed the first quarter of 2009 up 199% to .35. That is no small task in an overall economic environment filled with fear and doubt. The last time the company's stock closed out a quarter positively, was the third quarter of 2007.

As I've stated, I don't think anyone expected positive subscriber growth to have resulted from an abysmal first quarter. The retail channel is stagnant as distribution switches from Directed Electronics to Audiovox and new car sales were the worst in history. The street is no longer looking at subscriber numbers but instead seems to be focusing its attention on the company's bottom line. Promotional packages such as the "best of both" and increases to revenue through Internet streaming promise at the least, a decent first quarter for the company.


Yesterday's "not as bad as thought" auto sales data however, brings with it new possibilities that Sirius XM may have avoided negative subscriber growth. I had been negative on the company's first quarter, yet yesterdays auto sales results inspired me to take a more bullish look at some numbers.

OEMJanuaryFebruaryMarchQ1 TotalsRate (Approx)OEM Promo's
GM12819812617015533440970270.00%286791
Ford930419940013110132354270.00%226479
Chrysler621578405010100124720870.00%173046
BMW1432915805211255125980.00%41007
Daimler1222415614173484518680.00%36148
Audi4622465364331570880.00%12566
Porsche165815181749492580.00%3940
VW1755913660157204693980.00%37551
Mitsubishi4730448446201383450.00%6917
Acura7856765990052452050.00%12260
Subaru1219413089162494153250.00%20766
Nissan53884542496663417476750.00%87384
Suzuki3655349579811513150.00%75565
Mazda1542016401219745379550.00%26898
Kia22096220732472468893100.00%68893
Hyundai24512306214072195854100.00%95854
Honda71031715758837923198550.00%115992
Toyota11728710958313280235967250.00%179836
Gross Adds1507858
Deactivated1285000
Retail-100000
Net Additions122858
Total Subscribers19126714

These are by no means official numbers. The only correct number will be the number that the company reports. Getting these numbers correct is akin to picking the right lottery numbers. Don't bet on it! The numbers are only meant to demonstrate the potential for positive subscriber growth in the first quarter.

Position: Long Sirius XM