There has been a lot of reaction to my latest SiriusBuzz article regarding Jim Cramer, Goldman Sachs and a whole bunch of Sirius XM convertibles they hold. Seeing as the article deals a lot with perspectives, I'd like to offer yet another perspective. I realize that I may be beginning to sound like a person who needs heavy doses of medication with this one, but see if you can follow me on this...
Let's assume that Cramer is in fact a Goldman puppet, as many have speculated in the past. I am not saying he is, but for arguments sake just go along with it. What if ( and I stress "what if" ) Goldman holds too many of these convertibles? What if Goldman is looking to dump these convertibles but as yet has found no takers? What if, in an attempt to create a market for these converts, they talked Cramer into a new line of thinking knowing he would announce them on national television? "Buy! Buy! Buy! The converts! "
The problem is that near as I can tell, Goldman Sachs is the number one holder of these convertibles. Next in line is Bank Of America, although they hold a miniscule position, comparatively. The implication I'm of course making is that Goldman itself would have the most to gain from these proposed convertible sales, and Cramer's recommendation to purchase these converts benefits his former firm more than any individual investor. Broker calls client, explains how Jim Cramer recommends them as an investment also, and "BAM!," trade is executed.
With Sirius XM's credit rating looking to improve near term, the value of these convertibles in the open market declines, which means a drop in Goldmans portfolio. By keeping the stock price suppressed, if that is in fact what these bond bullies are doing as Cramer suggests, the convertibles become more attractive to buyers. Imagine the sales pitch of offering for sale a plus 4.00 stock for 1.40 a share, at a predetermined time that the bond bullies decide to cover. A separate argument could then be made that this is the reason that Goldman has been accumulating shares while lowering their price targets.
It's just possible that Goldman knows these convertibles are a losing proposition for Goldman, and would like someone....anyone to take them off their hands. I know I'm not making friends with any of this, but as an unsophisticated investor, I'm doing my best to improve my understanding of sophisticated investments.
Position: Long SIRI,
No position GS, BAC