Sirius XM Closes at 52 Week High
Sirius XM has reached a stage that I had not anticipated until after the company regained compliance. The closed at $1.20, and in doing so have established a new 52 week high. The technicals show a bullish move that contrasts a more neutral stance that existed only a few days ago. One reason that this move would seem to bode well is that unlike trading action last week where volume was low, we saw a decent amount of volume today.
While the move up does have more strength than last week, the volume was still below the company’s average volume. in my mind this would indicate that confidence is not as high as it could be. This is not necessarily a bad thing, it is just how the markets work. From most technical standpoints there is a lot of bullishness that surrounds Sirius XM Radio after today’s action. Adding to that bullishness is what now appears to be a near certainty that the company will be successful in staying above $1.00 tomorrow, thus meeting the NASDAQ requirements to remain listed.
I would anticipate that the company will announce their Q1 2010 conference call date either late tomorrow, or early on Wednesday. This will set a whole new list of parameters for investors long and short to consider. The subscriber picture is already known, and given the company performance over the last few quarters, the financial aspect of the report should prove to be acceptable to the street and analysts.
From here, I would like to see the company build a new support base at $1.20. Most support levels below current prices, but above $1.00 are weak to moderate in strength. Upward momentum is great, but upward movement on strong support is even better. Combine compliance with a conference call that would appear to be decent, as well as anticipated auto sales for April that should be good, and we could see a decent combination of equity movement as well as supporting volume.
So what is the next price target? Only time will tell, but it now seems quite possible that the company could make a small run that takes it above $1.30 over the next five trading days. From there, we just need to keep watching the signals.
Position – Long Sirius XM Radio
tell me when to sell!! I’ve made money but want to hold on for potentially big gains. Is $1.60 or more even likely in the next month?
I think it’s a possibility but wouldn’t bank on it. This stock will rise up to and through the earnings report then you’ll see some sell off. (profit taking)It will take a month or so to re-establish and it will run again to the next earnings report. I feel/hope it can be a solid 2 to 2.50 p/s by the end of the year. Once this stock establishes $2, you’ll see it make bigger leaps but the position should be long at this point
if you sell at $1.60 you will want to kill yourself a year from now…
Really……………….who’s this??
“Skip-the-Big-Profits’??
hmmm….all the people that sold at 0.61 back in 07′? i’m thinking they are gonna do quite well with auto sales on the rise. i say 2.00 by september-i would keep your position. if people would stop shorting so much maybe it would stand a chance. well i’m not so innocent. percentage wise not 1.60 more like 1.45ish..
We got good news coming the next few weeks, NASDAQ compliance, positive April auto sales, possible positive analyst’s reviews and recommendations… So yes SIRI will go up in the near future!
I think there are a lot of folks chomping at the bit still waiting for the compliance issue to be finalized. The volume this afternoon was very encouraging as the folks who were afraid of missing a run up started to buy. I look for this buying to continue to grow as SXM makes compliance freeing up institutions to buy and any remaining shorts out there continue to cover. Nice read, Spencer.
Spencer please do an EBITDA based price target. Don’t give me short term technicals.
What is your cash flow projection for 2011? I have heard $660 mil. Are you above or below. What’s your multiple?
20X = $1.65
Interesting
you have to be kidding me? you can’t see the writing on the wall. have some balls man. like the saying goes, buy on a hunch….by the time the news is out, it’s too damn late. every day trader on the planet can read the paper.
after tomorrow’s close above $1.00 the delisting scare is gone and it would be next to impossible for this stock to fall below the line again long enough to again be at risk for delisting. the reverse split will be off of the table and a company that makes monstrous cash flow will be available for peanuts. if people don’t buy the hell out of this stock after tomorrow, they’re just plain stupid and missing the boat on a multi-million dollar company that will easily meet its debt obligations and continue to soar. this is gonna be a great ride. glad i got in when i did at $.53 which was a STEAL!!! i’ll retire on the profits from this one….
Did you say multi-million dollar company?
I think you meant multi-Billion.
F-ing Aye WWD…………….!!
PS: How’s the “Cheerleader” doing these days ??
:0
Rah…Rah…Rah
people….everyone talks about this stock like they think it should be valued at $1.25 or $1.50. Please……there were a lot of contributing factors as to why this company sank so low. The merger being drug out and the economic downturn of last year being the two biggest contributing factors. patience…..this company is a giant. this company appeared to be a penny stock but it never was. if you can’t look at the big picture on this one just sell and get out of the way for the investors that see the writing on the wall. most of the shorts are in this for peanuts. this one could make history.
Spencer,
The move was not surprising to me because I had a feeling that once the takedown this morning failed, the white flags were thrown in by the shorts and in addition people on the sidelines concerned about what happenned last $ 1 run saw early today that something was different this time.
We probably will gap up in premarket tomorrow, but honestly I’d rather not see that happen and just have a nice steady push again tomorrow from the open.
another great read spencer !
can’t wait to get this compliance issue behind us.
with that and some good numbers this call………..the russel…..up,up and away….buckle up..or wax up them boards!
I have to agree w/ sxminvestor, volume was down because investors had a fear that an effort by the shorts would again pull down SIRI . Once the afternoon came I think their dam broke and the real pent up demand started rushing thru. Just too much positive news in the auto sector such as Ford’s numbers today (the icing on the cake) to squelch this run up. Next level $1.50.