Sirius XM and the Potential Reverse Split
[polldaddy poll=2093500]As readers are well aware, NASDAQ de-listing notices have recently been forwarded to companies that are not in compliance with the $1 minimum bid requirement for continued listing on the exchange. On August 3rd, the minimum bid rule, which had been suspended since 2008, went back into effect.
There are three possible scenarios which can play out: 1) the stock rises above $1 by March 15, 2010 for ten consecutive trading days, and the company does nothing; 2) the SEC / NASDAQ changes the listing requirements to enable companies like Sirius XM, with their substantial equity value, to remain listed despite being below $1; or 3) the company executes a reverse split in order to bring the nominal share price above $1.
Simply stated, Sirius XM needs the equity price above $1.00 to remain listed unless regulators grant a waiver. Last year, shareholders granted the company the authority to conduct a reverse split if the company believes it is in shareholders’ best interests, and at this year’s shareholder meeting that authority was extended to the company through mid-2010.
Mel Karmazin has clearly stated that he does not want to do a reverse split unless compelled to do so, but the reality is that the time clock is now ticking and regulators may not grant an exception, so it is an issue that investors and the company should begin considering. Today, I would like to encourage discussion about the mechanics of the reverse split to get a gauge of what level investors feel the company should consider and why.
I would like readers to consider various options and open up discussion as to why you have the opinion you do. I am well aware that there are many who may not want a reverse split at all, but I ask you to participate as well. The point of this discussion is to guage feedback about what ratio should be set assuming a reverse split does indeed happen more than whether or not there should be one. This will allow for discussion and dialogue, and it is a subject I will be covering in my Satellite Standard Weekly Report.
Many media companies trade in a range between $15 and $25. Should Sirius XM try to be in that trading range? Should they shoot for a lower number to keep an attractiveness to retail investors? Should they shoot for a price that is higher to build a cushion? These are more psychological questions than anything, and there is probably no exact right answer.
Think about the pricing that the equity should be at rather than the conversion. A reverse split is a reverse split, so the ratio matters little. The question is what “market” and price point would suit Sirius XM radio the best?
I would like to see as many people as possible weigh in on this in the comments section so that we can gauge an opinion to see where the sentiment of investors is at with regard to this subject.
I think we have had enough bad news lately about SIRI… We all know about the stock split that Mel himself said he wouldn’t do anytime soon… We are right around the corner from earnings report, so let’s stop all the dooms day stuff and see what the real #’s are next month… I think a reverse stock split shouldn’t even be discused until 2010… That gives SIRI about 3 months to 6 months before any action should be taken… Besides I think SIRI will break the $1 level in the next 3 months…
Randy,
It is not doom and gloom. It is preparation and discussion on a subject that will be happening quite a bit over the next few months. To ignore the issue would not be responsible. To understand where investor sentiment is would be helpful for all.
Clearly, SIRI cannot allow itself to be delisted. an obviously the best way is to get the stock price above $1 before time runs out. That is by far my preference and I think there is a good chance of that happening.
If not, I’d to a 10-1 Resverse split which would bring the price somewhere between &7 and $9 (by then). I think they need to bring the price up high enough to avoid droping below $1 again but not so high as to scare off retail investors. In other words, the only purpose of the reverse split should be to solve the delisting problem, and attract institutional investors, without becoming unattractive to retail investors.
I think SIRI is being held down right now due to the threat of delisting, so once the problem is behind SIRI, the stock will rise.
I’m not scared about a reverse split, because the SIRI bottom line is rapidly improving and the bankrupsy threat is off the table. As a long term investor, I have the luxury of riding out the ups and downs over the next year or so. I can easily see SIRI recovering back to pre-merger levels in the next 18 months.
With each passing week, the fundementals of this company improve. The last remaining problem for SIRI, is price manipulation. And event their days are numbered.
A reverse split would be detrimental to those of us who have a lot invested in SIRI. With all the short selling and bad press from FOOLS driving the price down we would loose even more than we have to date. I would prefer that Mel keep moving down the track as he planned and the SEC inforce stricter rules and punishment on those who short sell and those who provide negative feedback for short selling purposes. I have been invested in SIRI for 4 years with over 160,00 shares and a portion of those purchased in 02/08 @ 3.15. I was able to reduce my average cost per share to 1.25. If a reverse split happens and the short selling continues I am afraid I will never get my return on ivestment.
Spencer – Did I miss something or did you completely ignore the appeal time after March which would push this out another 6 months or so afterward to September 2010?
By that time, with EBITDA next year hopefully being over 500 million at a 20% growth rate I expect the stock will respond to over a buck and trade at 20 times EBITDA.
They have appeal time after March, but they do not have shareholder approval after June. Thus, unless they want to do a proxy vote on the issue (which would mean more reverse split press coverage and expenses) they need to decide by the March date.
Spencer – Wouldn’t they just have another shareholder meeting before that date regularly scheduled? How could it not be on the agenda as it has been the last 2 years?
Also Spencer didn’t Mel state on the last earnings call about appeal time? I know heard him say it. For you to say they have to decide by March seems like incorrect info to me.
what a shame that it has even come down to this, what karmazin has done to satrad is pathetic.i have owned shares in siri for 5 years and virtually since day 1 i have been trying to at least get even.
I personally do not like the idea of any R/S with Karmazin still at the helm, clearly it will just promote more shorting of the stock and larger losses for longs.
As long as Karmazin is ceo the street will continue to hammer this co. Karmazin is not liked on the street and satrad investors are paying for it
If a split were necessary, it should be the minimum. 10 to 1 would be OK. 5 to 1 would be better even if it would require another vote. A reverse split over 10 to 1 might cause a problem because the share price might be to high. This is still a highly speculative stock and I feel higher prices might not attract speculative money
I thought you werent writing about the equity anymore? Terrible timing for this article.
Relmor
I still write about the equity. I issue reports every Friday. As for timing…why is it that so many are so sensetive to the timing of an article? Does the potential of a reverse split need to be burrows? My opinion is that this issue will be discussed slot over the next few months. The company will likely be discussing it in 3 short weeks. Don’t you think it better for investors to have thought the issue through than to pretend it dies not exist, or does not matter.
If This simple article is bad and represents poor timing, then perhaps there are bigger issues at play. Wouldn’t you think that having a better understanding of the dynamics at play is better than not? The timing is so that investors can react to the news that will be happening over the next few weeks. Satellite radio investing is not “all good all of the time”
I suppose. YOu made valid points. I respect your opinion, but you didnt seem to give much credance to the fact that, regardless of SiriusXM does, they will never delist them.
Spencer Osborne, I have to say what I dont get about this is your number “2) the SEC / NASDAQ changes the listing requirements to enable companies like Sirius XM, with their substantial equity value, to remain listed despite being below $1.” The problem is it makes absolutely no sense because if they have that kind of equity but have a share price below a dollar then they obviously have to many shares out and therefore should have to do a reverse split in the first place. I can only imagine that is exactly what the SEC / NASDAQ would say if SIRIXM ever came to them with that arguement.
Defer any talk about R/S until after S.E.C. completely re-instates Original Uptick Rule and, comes down hard on abusive Naked Short Selling. To do otherwise is futile and totally destructive to current shareholder equity and value.
People always say it’s a zero sum game, but in SIRI’s case, I don’t believe so. With all of SIRI’s bond debt, coupled with the insane amount of shares outstanding diluting the share price, to hope that Sirius will be able to somehow perform share buybacks AND debt principle pay downs at the same time over the next five years is not likely. I always hope that a company can be fiscally responsible enough to be able to buy back shares, but this is not Sirius and will not be, because as they become even mildly profitable, the share price will rise, making share buy backs less than adequate compared the insurmountable pile of shares outstanding. It is very likely that Sirius will never, in its entire existence, (say ten more years) be able to earn enough money to even buy back half of the outstanding shares, not even considering the debt (which could be refinanced until rapture). It is just not possible, and will continue to hold down the share price. Really, what are we up to, 6.5 billion shares or so, with a possible 8 or 9 billion available for some wondrous reason. Say the stock were just below a dollar; who here can say that Sirius will ever have even 3 billion extra free cash dollars laying around to make those outstanding shares divide in half, which would still triple IBM’s outstanding amount? IBM, which had 45 billion dollars in gross profit for the year. Please tell me someone sees that comparison for what it’s worth. Sirius will never be able to put a dent in the outstanding shares unless they borrow to do it, and until they do, the share price is what it is. The price isn’t what it is because of manipulation or the looming reverse split being seen as a negative, the price is what it is because Sirius has six times more outstanding shares than IBM, which trades for 122 per share, and profits almost 13 times more than Sirius generates in revenue. That’s why the smart money is hoping Sirius splits, and for an amount that has nothing to do with what the share price will be afterward, but how many outstanding shares can disappear, to get the company down to say, 500 million outstanding shares, a far more logical number. 500 million would be half of IBM’s amount, though Sirius still wouldn’t be profiting half of what IBM profits, 23 billion. This may be a poor example but it should be enough to help some people catch their breath and realize that this is a RISKY, SPECULATIVE stock. I would hate to see my 120k shares turn into 1200 shares, but the stock needs it; they have ruined the company with the amount of shares outstanding. I would hope they can find a better way, but there really isn’t a better way. It would take them thirty years to buy enough back, and who in their right mind would issue more debt to buy back shares? Well, I would, at a nice rate that was less than the incremental share price movement I’d get out of it.
Actually, I just found an article where IBM did in fact borrow 11.5 billion in debt to buy back shares in 2007. You never know. http://www.usatoday.com/tech/p.....1989_x.htm
Ok Spencer. Is it Spencer or Tyler? Sorry, I get confused. But anyway, its bad timing, because your responding to fear being written about the stock. Timing is everything. Article comes out one day after a 2 month low in the SP. Thats called TIMING. Its A NON ISSUE. Mel has stated no R/S until necessary, so that means 180 days from March, more than likely, or at earliest March. Non issue, we will be trading well over $1 by then. Hence, non issue.
If you dont think the stock will be trading over $1 by then, then you dont trust Mel’s EBITDA estimates, or his hint that we go back to positive sub growth, which Q3 will show. So im confused.
As a long investor who got into Sirius 4 years ago and averaged down from $6.50 all the way to the .90 cent range….right now I am against a RS. Only because I think the resulting short attack afterwards would be brutal and even if it eventually recovers, it would lock me in A LOT longer than I want to be.
I am ALMOST green. I had planned to cash out at a buck….maybe more depending on what kind of run. But definitely soon.
It’s just time for me and I don’t want to be in it too much longer. I understand the principle of a RS and that it isn’t the kiss of death for EVERY stock. But hey, lets not kid ourselves. Sirius is the most unpredictable stock around. For me, it’s just not worth the risk.
My thinking is that if the next two quarters keep improving as we all expect them to that we can get damn close to a buck by March 10th. And if not, Mel can extend it one last time until NEXT summer. That is A LOT of time. We are in ZERO danger of declaring BK….so what is the rush? I think we can get to a buck on our own. At least I want to see. So I’m with Mel. I’d rather wait until the LAST day next summer if we have to. Hell…if we aren’t over a buck by then, I’ll put on my RS party hat….but not a day sooner.
Everyone talks about how a RS will decrease the outstanding shares. And that is true.
But so will buying back shares down the road. If Sirius goes FCF positive and keeps growing….they can not only refinance future debt, but slowly PAY IT OFF. Wow. What a concept. Then ULTIMATELY over the years, they can start BUYING BACK SHARES.
I say, WHAT IS THE RUSH. Yes, the “clock” is ticking. But lets not regurgitate the fear mantra of the bashers and shorts. We have TIME.
And if there is even a SMIDGEON of a chance that Sirius can get to a $1 before March 10th or slightly after….ON its OWN….then I’m all for putting off the RS until the last possible moment.
Now having said that, to answer the question about WHAT kind of R/S would I want if it came to that? Well, I hope to be out of Sirius when/if that happens for the reasons I stated. But with cash on the sidelines and no stake in the game, I’d say a 1 for 10 RS is fine. If Sirius is around a buck by then(next summer)…that’d give us a $9 or $10 stock. That is more than enough room for Sirius to stretch it’s wings.
I still would want to be out of Sirius when that happens, because I think the shorts and Goldman Sachs super computers would still have the ability to wreck havoc on the stock.
I just don’t trust that initial period. And I’d expect a massive short attack regardless of what ANYONE says to the contrary. I’ve lived thru HELL with this stock and what the powers that be can do to it. There ain’t no way I want to get caught in such a trap again. I am sorry.
I’d wait on the sidelines for the 50% beat down and THEN and ONLY then think about getting back in.
I am hoping to avoid such a scenario and get out on good news run up to the 3Q CC and then into the 4Q cc before the March date even arrives. I think by then we can continue enough forward momentum to ride this stock back into the .70s and to $1
I guess we’ll find out.
My fear is that some think and are saying that the RS would INSTANTLY end ALL manipulation. When I hear that, friggin ALARM bells go off.
So if I can get out now and get my cash back at break even or slightly above I’d rather do that then get stuck in the possible post RS feeding frenzy. I have faith in Sirius long term….but I want to be on the sidelines for the next attack thank you very much. Hell, I feel so strongly about this, that I’d even think about taking a slight loss than get stuck in that scene again. I’m serious. If Sirius gets back into the .70s again…only .15 to .20 cents away from my breakeven….and it just stays there….and I get strong feelings a RS is about to happen? I am OUT.
I’ts worth the risk for me.
Now if Sirius kicks ass the next two quarters and blows away expectations and gets ugrade after upgrade and BLASTS thru $1 and beyond….that is a different story. I may hold awhile longer and take a wait and see approach.
But this is my attitude on a RS.
Cheers. 🙂
Mr Osborne
Dont think voters poll is scientific nor renders an opinion.
You are a bit sensitive today, so I will agree with others that the timing for such talk needs to be done, but certainly should be reviewed after third quarter report.
The obvious fact that the company has not responded to the recent assault of negative press suggests either the third quarter will be big, or there is something else big about to happen.- so they dont care either way- or they are totally inept with their head in the sand. Dont think the later.
Elvis
The poll was not designed to be scientific, however, it does render an opinion about serious investors in this equity.
The purpose is to get people thinking and discussing their opinions.
I feel that you should have had a yes or no on the reverse split. Then if yes what share price. Asking the question the way you ask it seems to assume that all voters approve the reverse split and the only debate is how much to do it…..
Get the pps as high as possible and do a 10-1 reverse split,and have the company buy back shares,this would reduce the # of outstanding shares plenty enough to get the shorts attention ,and bring institutional buyers on board . I personally think it will be a non-issue when Mel and Malone reveal their real plans for Siri-Xm.When this happens the pps will go out of sight.
I am NOT a fan of the R/S. I believe with the skydock and the 3rd and 4th quarter numbers ahead of us that the stock has a chance to push past the $1 threshold. I also believe you must be prepared.
What scares me is the manipulation. If the company does do well for the 3rd and 4th quartes, it may still not be enough. If the big boys want to keep this stock down, they will be successful. The company probably feels why waste there time and energy on negative pr. They are focused on ebitda and growing the company going forward.
Steve
It doesnt take much to issue a positive company statement/
? manipulation- Let me ask you-
Did you just let the bully in your school have free rein because “you knew you were a better person” for not engaging?
Dont think so.
Sometimes you have to pick up the ball- when it is rolled to you.
That decision is critical re the timing-and response- That is why we sit in denial most of the time hoping they the CEOs do the right thing so that they really earn their money.
Steve it also doesnt hurt to bring up and dispell rumors printed about you before questions asked regarding those issues during the speech of the ceo at that 3q conference.
Letterman learned that – Never ever be behind the story- Be in front of it.
We are not playing “The Art of War” here nor should applications be applied to “worthy” opponents.
Wall Street wasnt created when that book was written and is not applicable.
Face your critics head on with fact and move on.
Sitting around making hand puppets whilst you know everything is ok with you company- doesnt do much for your bottom line and time erodes intregity and validity of the company no matter how well they do.
Boys and girls most of the next rise in siri has nothing to do with their success or failure but how they appropriately handle and manage the day to day (not quarterly) events.
They havent done a very good job up until this time -they have a good product- they know it- but it simply could be allot better.
Move your bloomin arse- Mel.
Very Tired Elvis
I’d like to see it get over $1 first. Its the fact that they were able to do that considering all that’s happened and considering the amount of shares, that could put a scare into shorters and give more confidence to longs. An R/S under $1 would be perceived as being forced from a position of weakness and due to the hype, no one wants to be the one left to turn out the lights so the longs would all jump out at the same time. On the other hand, if there was no threat of a delisting and Mel came out and stated clearly the reasons for executing a reverse split for the sake of reducing share count and to attract institutional investors, then I think longs would be fine with it and shorters may fear to touch it.
Irrelevant at this time. My philosophy in life is to never worry about something that may never happen. What’s the point? You are wasting brain cells and implanting negative thoughts that might lead you in the wrong direction. If you believe in Sirius then share constructive thoughts that will help them succeed.
75% retail ownership…
The anouncement of a rs would send the masses out the door including me. at 61 average, i’ll be ok and recover my investment when I bail out at the sign of a rs.
after the dust settles and we are left with a 20-30 cent sp, what kind of split numbers are needed. 10 to 1 is dreaming.
i’m not interested in finding out and will see you guys on the other side.
4th qtr conference call is my time tolerance for this stock. if it is not at a buck, i will have agressive stops in place and very itchy fingers. i’ll leave with as much as i can
Spencer, Spencer, Spencer,
We all know about the possible r/s, but with all the negetive
media attention lately the timeing for this discussion is bad.
People are selling off their stock because of all the fear based thinking from bad press lately… I lost thousands of dollars and took a 50% loss back in Feb because I was a newbie to the stock market back then and I paniced and lost big time… yesterday my siri stock was down by $10,000 so I have a vested interest in what happens to SIRI stock price and Negetive thoughts create negetive results… Mel already said ” He Will NOT Do a Reverse Stock Split anytime soon” on the last conference call… To me that means at least not this year in 2009… Besides Mel is gonna do what ever Mel thinks is best for the stock holders… Obviously he doesn’t think it’s in the stock holders interest anytime soon to do a stock split otherwise he would have already done it… So why talk about this publicly right now after the big beat down we’ve all taken the last few days… I just want SIRI to start trading like it normally does around earnings time and the stock goes up instead of hanging around in the 50 cent range because of all the fear and uncertainty in the air… I say do all the homework you need to do so that you are prepaired for the future but, now is not the time for a public forum on this subject because the stock price is so low right now… Besides do you really think what you or I think is gonna have any impact on what kind of reverse stock split or when it will happen… NO, Mel is the CEO, and I would have to assume he already knows exactly when and if any R/S will or will not happen… Giving more attention to it right now only keeps the fear around longer because I’d bet 90% of us stock holders would prefer that no R/S happens anytime soon…
The media would love it.You can all picture the headlines from the Sreet and Motley already and they would be non-stop.
The short raid on SiriusXM after the reverse it as sure as the sun coming up tomorrow.
It would be as ugly and nasty as the loan that gave away 40 percent of the company and the drop to pennies that we saw earlier this year. That is your R/S
Just depends on what Mel is trying to achieve? Screw over the stockholders? Make it cheap for Liberty to steal?
Take it private?
Or does he manage the company and get it over a buck by the end of the year?
Only Mel knows what he is trying to acheive and as stockholders we have nothing to say about the future of what will happen to this company.
imho
vaporgold
Reverse split is necessary to attract the institutional ownership that will move the stock higher. 10:1.
Biggest problem of SIRI is that there has been little leveraging of the technology to attract new subscribers beyond the auto market. I am dissapointed that video has not been exploited for instance.
This company has way too much overhead to be profitable on such a low subscriber base. More out of the box innovative thinking is necessary to save this company.
I love the product but that does not mean it is a good business.
56 cents and dropping and still there are cheerleaders wishing for the impossible.
Sirius-XM WILL execute the split and it will be futile.
They are destined to be delisted.
The recent executive sell-off couldn’t have come at a worse time.
It shows clearly that their own executives are shorts at heart.
Sirius-XM continues to lose subscribers and NOT turn a profit.
Bankruptcy is inevitable.
Hi BahBah Booey, Got any Cramer? 😀
My personal feelings with a mere 6400 shares invested @ 1.80 a share, would be very rewarding after this long wait.
I agree Gary. 🙂
Great to see you participating Boo Boo, always a treat to hear from an actual NAMBLA representative. Go back to mommies basement tool boy.
54 cents and DROPPING.
Go back to pulling your pud Krypto.
It’s obvious you know less than nothing about what makes a successful business.
i know for most companies that a reverse split usually doesnt work well since those companies are usually in dire shape–Priceline is one exception that comes to mind–
This company has way too many shares outstanding so this alone is good to reduce–If the balance sheet is truly getting so much better and the company is in the black from a point on shortly, this could really work well–They need to be capitalized well so that they dont look to issue more shares and add billions again–I dont think this would happen until next year–The 3rd and 4th Q are critical as if they show real good improvements, this issue may be irrevelant
My son and I bought this stock a long ways back. We don’t have plans to just bail now. I’m sorry to say, this bickering about a great company who has been melted and chip away at by the shorts!
Now the shorts are backing the company hmm? Wonder what this means. 🙂
David Fox
NOTE: moderators, excuse me using wrong information with my first comment. I had my password user saver for Firefox brought real old info. Take care, have a nice day!
Do the split and get it over with. 1 to 10 split would be great. $5 – $7 range is perfect point for Sirius stock and we need to get out of the billion shares outstanding group. Thanks
wE ARE STILL ON THIS?
When are these new rules against naked short selling supposed to take effect?
I still belive the R/S is inevitable, and will happen before year end. I do not think any company wants 3.85B shares floating around as it just dilutes the investors and company. 380M shares would not be out of line so look for a 10:1 R/S minimum, but the new price would be low enough for the price to be shorted to less than $1.00, so a 20-50:1 R/S could be better in the long run. I sold all 65K shares a few weeks back at .70 and pulled a slight profit, but nothing big, as the R/S is closer than we think. Good luck
How can you say the sp will be cut back down to less than $1.00 after a 10:1 split??????
What you are saying is that the company will then have a market value less than $380 million.
NOT POSSIBLE!!!
The insider selling had nothing to do with confidence. It was a bonus that had to be sold. They all have many times more shares than the few that were sold. I read an explanation somewhere to that effect. There is also an extra six months that they can ask for that is almost automatically granted. Wait for the sub numbers in Q3 & Q4, buy back shares and we are on our way. The negative liars will head for cover after good numbers continue to come out in one of the worst recessions we have ever had.
It has EVERYTHING to do with confidence.
Sirius isn’t out of the woods and the executives are seen as shorts in waiting.
WRONG!!!!
The share sales were mandatory,,,, they were considered as part of their pay……
You know it & you’re spreading fear……………
Please…
Try reading and comprehending.
It is perception versus reality.
No need to spread fear about Sirius-XM.
Mel Karmazin has done a great job of that all by himself.
The way I see it, with the current “bear” trend of SIRI, I don’t think they will have time to get the equity up to $1 for 10 consecutive trading days. 3Q results are out in the beginning of November. IMO, if they don’t exceed expectations, a R/S is likely. I simply don’t believe that there is enough time to wait for 4Q results, and who knows what the results will be.
What a lousy week for SIRI.
Spencer – your a little behind.
Where is your SkyDock article ?
SXM…..
scoll down and you will see it
please write a new article and get this off the main page
Man – what a momentum killer! This article has “churn” written all over it.
Not only is this article nonsense,,,, But to use it to open a discussion on a r/s…..
It has only brought the conversation back to whether or not Sirius will survive which is insane……….
9 months ago everyone wanted to hang MEL because he was driving the company into BK, or trying to take it private, or too old to know what he’s doing,,etc,,etc,,etc,,
Now the sp is 10X higher than it was at the height of the fear.
This company is going nowhere but up. Trust in MEL! If a r/s split is going to happen it will be on his terms. Like after a big debt refi, or after a big Q report…..A way to kill the shorts, with big institutional investors lined up…….. How about the sp takes a small hit and then skyrockets to a $10 BILLION market cap,,,,,,,WHERE IT SHOULD BE……
START A CONVERSATION ON THOSE POSSIBILITIES………..
sd… Um, what is Mel waiting for? More synergies??
10x higher than the $.05?? What about 1000x lower than when Melvin became Sirius Shyster-in-Chief??
I don’t get the question, Mel isn’t waiting for anything, he’s doing what needs to be done NOW!
SIRI has traded on hype and speculation since day one….. it was manipulated UP to $9 for stern just like it’s being held down now. SIRI trades with ZERO speculation & hope for the future now vs. nothing BUT back then. Wait till’ the business plan is proved good in the next 2 cc reports.
Sirius may not become another rocket like Microsoft with 80% of the population using it, but it won’t fall flat on its face either. There is some percentage of people like me that will keep it no matter what.
Now, with Toyota FINALLY putting XM radios in their cars with pre-paid subscriptions, we wll see what the final long term user tally will be (~30% maybe). That should be enough to get all the investors back to positive and maybe some profit to boot.
What comes to my attention when I read most of the comments the last several weeks regarding SIRI’s resurgence from its complete equity collapse in February is three things: Firstly, that Sirius XM has made tremendous strides in its recovery despite heavy share dilution potential with Liberty’s liquidity rescue in almost every way it can from debt restructuring, to its subscription retention during a period of potential Armageddon for the auto industry as well as the credit system during this historic recession, as well as its phenomenal positioning in its relation to Apple through its app and its new SkyDock as it relates to new potential revenue beyond the auto industry. All of this points to a positive future after a tough, costly merger before the floor in the economy collapsed. Secondly, I’ve been following the markets for some time, and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a stock so heavily disparaged through media -particularly Motley Fool and thestreet.com and even the Wall Street Journal. I consider the Wall Street Journal legitimate media, but found a recent online article misleading, under-informed, and manipulative in its intention and connotation (article regarding insider selling). Unfortunately, it was approaching negative propaganda as the misleading subjective articles by the websites mentioned above have reached. Polls are paper thin, not objective informational reporting. The article on the extreme decrease in short positions in SIRI over the last two weeks are facts that point to antithetical truth to the propagated false information regarding the health and viability of Sirius XM as a company. The truth regarding the company is that things are dramatically improving coming into 3Q. Thirdly, its clear that Sirius XM needs to do a better job representing itself through the media -in its relation to the market as well as the consumer through two direct means- direct, addressing of false information regarding the company by the CEO or through official press releases directly by the company, and two through advertising directly to the consumer beyond programming releases. It’s got a phenomenal product. It has a huge future. It needs to do a much better job of defending itself beyond all of the good things it’s doing for itself as an American company. Considering its equity is under the immediate gun of being under 1.00, this is a critical window to shore up the momentum it’s gained. Thanks.
Everyone just needs to chill out. Do you remember when you actually had to get off the couch to change the T.V channel? What a beating.. Do you remember when people were complaining about the cost of cable in relation to having to jack with your rabbit ears to get your four channels? Now everyone pays for cable because it is superior. I don’t know what the SIRI stock price does tomorrow, but I do know management is taking the right steps to move this company into the 21st century and the content is far superior. I get to listen to FOX while I’m driving. Pretty darn cool. Siri has T.V, Radio, Weather and navigation for aircraft and listening material for Liberals, Conservatives and independents. In 10 years if you still own SIRI you will be up 10,000%. In 1890 if 200 people left NY for LA 25% of the people died.. Now, you eat breakfast in NY lunch in LA and dinner in NY. Technology is great and the technological advances in this century will be mind boggling and satellite and really everything to do with Tech will be in every household in every country period. Long SIRI!!
I would like to see something positive come from whatever they do. I paid $35 a share for XM stock way back when the market was running strong and a year or so after GM announced they were putting satellite radio in all their new cars. At one point XM had 6 million subscribers and was in a race with Sirius to make it 9 million who only had like 3 million subscribers at the time. What caused such a gutting of the XM stock is not truly known other than some people thought the stock had been inflated by the original founding members and sued to find out how or why their investment was falling faster than a rock dropped off a tall building. I am still at a loss as how Sirius could by XM when XM’s stock was in such better shape and always had been. How can you take a stock such as XM that has out performed the competition since its enception, merge it with Sirius whose death nell was paying Howard Stern that boat load of money, and think it is a good deal for the stock holder. Sirius’s stock had languished around the $3-$5 mark since I got involved with XM Radio. Who put up the money from Sirius to buy XM shouldn’t it have been the other way around?
My understanding is that Sirius actually has longer than March using various forms of postponments…and I’m not knowledgeable enought to name them. Does anyone else have that info?