Sirius is the brightest star in the night sky and it happens to be where Sirius Satellite Radio first got its name. As a broker, I would often look for quality story stocks. Sirius XM has just become every brokers dream. In shocking fashion that even Hollywood is now taking notice of, Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin has again cleaned up the mess he inherited as a result of massive debt obligations left behind by his predecessor.
To the amazement of even the brightest minds on Wall Street, Mel Karmazin has brought Sirius XM satellite radio back from the dead. Wall Street's darling had been all but written off, with even its front man Jim Cramer making recent claims that the equity was worthless. No doubt Mr. Cramer is looking frantically this morning for a way to explain his way out of this one. I for one can't wait to see him eat crow, but I digress.
Yesterday's news was better than most investors realize. Most can clearly ascertain that all of Sirius XM's 2009 debt obligations have been put to rest. The stock enjoyed a nice percentage gain on that news but the story is far from over.
There has also been the overhanging concern regarding further dilution to the stock. With the closing of yesterdays deal between Liberty and Sirius, the stock was actually diluted by 40%. A special thanks to Homer985 on the SiriusBuzz forums who correctly observed that the fully diluted market cap of Sirius XM had risen to 889 million from 496 million dollars. In a nutshell, this dilution of the common stock should have caused an equal percentage drop in the share price. The stock had been so oversold that it actually enjoyed a very nice gain on the news. So where does it go from here?
Betting on Satellite radio's failure is a no win situation for any short seller. There is simply no reason to short SIRI common stock at this time. Taking a look at the bigger picture, many experts suspect that market capitulation occurred yesterday, which means we may have finally seen the bottom of this recession. Sirius now sits on a mountain of cash, enjoys freedom from debt, there is no longer an overhang of dilution fear and let's not forget about the 6 billion dollars in tax credits that the mainstream media used as ammo against Sirius. That money is as good as cash to the company now that it has survived.
As the only Satellite radio provider, the company now enjoys a position which no other company in the sector can even dream of. With the annual report due out in a matter of days, the street will be looking for execution plans going forward. We can all expect analysts to again begin coverage of the stock most likely with buy ratings, after the stock runs up in the short term of course.
Position: Long Sirius XM