Wall Street pundits are betting on the future of Sirius XM with baited breath. They have laid down their chips both for and against Sirius XM being able to pay off their February 09 converts which are due in just a few short weeks.
Fueling the fire, writers from around the web are throwing around such terms as "bankruptcy" and "shareholder wipeout" on an almost daily basis. The problem with this is that these writers are not listening to the facts. Sirius XM has already begun to pay down its debt and this act alone is a sign of a company not looking to go into default.
Mel Karmazin, on numerous occasions, has publicly stated that bankruptcy is not an option and that the remaining debt is already being renegotiated on several fronts. It's what has still not happened that speaks the loudest as to what the outcome will be. At any time over the course of the last few months, Sirius XM had the option to massively dilute its common shares to raise cash and follow that act up with a large reverse stock split. The fact that this has still not happened leads me to believe that those betting against Sirius XM repaying its debt are betting on the wrong horse.
It should also be noted that the Sirius XM (SIRIW) warrants, which have a strike price of 3.18, are trading up 1600% above their .05 lows. Sirius XM has an ace up its sleeve and it is yet to be played.