After an August that had auto sales deliver nearly 1.5 million vehicles, a number like 1.1 million for September may seem disappointing. The devil is in the details. This year the beginning of Labor Day weekend actually happened in August, and because of that August got a nice little boost. Last year the entire Labor Day push was in the month of September.
Even with the sales figures coming in more modest for September, the SAAR is expected to be at about 15.7 million, and the pace for the year is still ahead of track. The biggest monkey wrench we may see here is what the perception of the street will be if there is a year of year comparison drop. If that happens, it would be the first time this year that current year sales fell short of last years sales. Last year sales in September were 1.18 million. The current projection for this year is about 1.13 million. That 50,000 units could really impact perception.
The implications for SiriusXM are still quite good even with what may be a soft September. Auto sales in Q3 will be shy of Q2, but well ahead of Q1. The company should have little trouble announcing an impressive subscriber number. What investors will need to monitor is the overall perception of the economy as October 1st approaches. If things are soft in other sectors the headlines could be a drag. If things are generally okay, the headlines may simply be more long term centered.
SiriusBuzz will, as usual, report the auto sales when they are available. SiriusBuzz Premium members will get charts and additional insight. If you have not tried SiriusBuzz Premium, consider checking it out. We offer regular technical analysis and insight that is simply not available elsewhere.